若瑞士12月CPI数据符合预期，市场普遍认为瑞士国家银行（SNB）将在较长周期内维持相对温和的政策导向。这一政策预期影响瑞士法郎短期交易情绪， 使其在美元走强背景下未出现明显弱势波动。 近期美元兑瑞士法郎汇率走势核心围绕美国经济数据表现与美联储政策预期博弈展开。服务业是美国经济核心支柱，其PMI数据超预期表现强化部分市场参 与者对美国经济基本面的信心，进而对美元形成支撑。 周四亚洲交易时段尾盘，美元兑瑞士法郎汇率延续此前两个交易日上行态势，接近0.7975。 美元整体走高背景下，瑞士法郎兑美元汇率表现出一定韧性，这一态势与12月美国ISM服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）表现相关。 截至信息整理时，追踪美元兑六种主要货币价值的美元指数（DXY）小幅走高，徘徊于98.70附近。 周三ISM报告显示，衡量美国服务业活动的PMI指标从11月52.6升至54.4，高于经济学家预期的52.3。服务业占据美国经济较大比重，此次PMI强劲表现，反 映出依托高科技产业支撑，美国经济具备一定稳定性。 12月美国服务业PMI强劲表现，可能影响市场对美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）政策调整的预期。据CME FedWatch工具数据，当前市 ...

利率市场显示，截至12月18日，ASX 30天银行间现金利率期货2026年2月合约报96.34点，隐含下次RBA会议加息至3.85%的概率约为27%。 汇市方面，澳元走强，美元结束三连涨 受美联储官员谨慎表态影响，美元未能反弹，美元指数（DXY）持续回落，交投于98.60附近。市场正等待周二公布的美国第三季度GDP年化数据，其结果 可能对美元走势形成指引。 克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·汉马克周日接受媒体采访时表示，当前货币政策处于合适状态，适合暂停加息，评估第一季度75个基点降息对经济的影 响。市场预期方面，经济预测摘要显示，市场普遍认为2026年美联储仅会再加息一次。相关工具数据显示，美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变的概率已从一 周前的75.6%升至79.0%，降息25个基点的概率则从24.4%降至21.0%。 美国劳工统计局此前公布的11月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示，当月CPI同比涨幅回落至2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同 比上涨2.6%，同样低于3.0%的预期值，该数据创下2021年以来的最低增速。 中国人民银行公布维持贷款市场报价利率（LPR）不变，一年期LPR ...

美元指数（DXY）跌至10周低点97.902，此前为98.061 。 来源：滚动播报 ...

与此同时，除澳元、新西兰元等澳大拉西亚货币外，加元相对其他主要货币均表现强势，核心原因在于加拿大央行短期内降息的可能性极低。在周三发布的 货币政策声明中，加拿大央行重申，"只要经济和通胀走势符合预期，当前利率水平足以将通胀维持在2%的目标附近"。 IC外汇平台美元兑加元技术面分析 美元兑加元（USD/CAD）已连续第四个交易日下跌。受美元持续走弱影响，该货币对进一步下探至1.3750附近。美联储在周三释放信号，称计划到2026年 将联邦基金利率降至3.4%；而加拿大央行（BoC）本周则表示，短期内应维持当前利率水平。 周五，美元兑加元延续四连跌走势。欧洲交易时段，该货币对下跌0.1%，交投于1.3750附近。周三美联储公布货币政策决议后，美元表现疲软，直接对美元 兑加元形成压制。 截至发稿，追踪美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数（DXY）仍处于脆弱区间，徘徊在周四创下的七周低点98.13附近。 市场预期美联储2026年的降息次数将超过最新点阵图显示的水平，这一预期推动美元全面走软。CME美联储观察工具（CMEFedWatchTool）数据显示，截 至2026年10月，美联储至少降息两次的概率已达58%。与之形成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Chris Turner from ING suggests that if the upcoming US October JOLTs job openings data is better than expected, the US dollar is likely to strengthen [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, but there is a cautious attitude towards further rate cuts [1] - Given the fragile pricing of further easing by the Federal Reserve, the downside potential for the dollar is considered limited before the Fed meeting [1] Group 2: Potential Impact of Data Release - If the data released on Tuesday shows any positive surprises, the US Dollar Index (DXY) could rise to 99.30 [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar (USD) showed a lackluster performance in overnight trading due to the absence of new catalysts and the market having fully digested most major central bank decisions, with the dollar index (DXY) reported at 99.19 [1] - The market has already priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations ahead of the December FOMC meeting, with a focus on guidance regarding the rate cut path before 2026 [3] - Support levels for the dollar are identified at 99.10 (50-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement from May high to September low) and 98.60 (100-day moving average), while resistance levels are at 99.60/70 (21-day/200-day moving averages and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and 100.6 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement) [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration has canceled a series of interviews for the final list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, with Trump indicating potential candidates may have been present at a recent event [3] - Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair will last until mid-May, with Trump previously stating that the final candidate announcement would occur in early 2026, pending Senate confirmation [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the outlook on Federal Reserve policies [1][2] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,195 per ounce, supported by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. House passed a funding bill, ending the longest government shutdown in history, which will keep the government operational until January 30 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on monetary policy, with some indicating a tight policy stance while others await clear signs of inflation returning to the 2% target before considering rate cuts [2] - The end of the government shutdown has improved market sentiment, but the resumption of economic data releases and Federal Reserve statements will dominate future market movements [2] - Gold prices are showing resilience near the $4,200 mark, indicating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak employment data strengthening interest rate cut expectations, while progress on government funding stabilizes the dollar [1][4] - The ADP report indicates a reduction of approximately 11,000 jobs per week in the private sector, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][4] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to be voted on by the House, potentially leading to the reopening of the government and the resumption of delayed official data [1][3] Group 2 - Gold prices have risen to around $4,140, a two-week high, driven by lower interest rate expectations reducing the holding costs of gold [2][4] - The dollar index has rebounded to the 99.50–99.55 range following the Senate's approval of the funding bill, despite concerns about potential economic slowdown reflected in upcoming data [3][4] - The Australian dollar and British pound are under pressure due to respective economic factors, with the Australian dollar hovering around 0.6520 and the British pound declining to approximately 1.3130 [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of government reopening and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as these will be key catalysts for market direction [4] - The upcoming votes in the House and the performance of official data post-reopening will directly impact market risk appetite [3][4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data as a key indicator of the U.S. economy's health, influencing various financial markets including the dollar, gold, and silver [3][4][37] Group 1: Understanding Non-Farm Data - Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data is released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment changes in all sectors except agriculture, making it a crucial economic health indicator [3][4] - The NFP data is vital for assessing economic conditions, predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy, and guiding short-term trading strategies [3][4][37] Group 2: Key Components of Non-Farm Data - The three critical indicators in the NFP report are: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings [4][12] - New jobs added is the most sensitive indicator, with higher-than-expected figures indicating a strong job market and economic activity [5][6] - The unemployment rate serves as a stability signal for the labor market, with a decrease indicating improvement and an increase suggesting economic weakness [10][12] - Average hourly earnings reflect inflation and consumer spending power, with rapid growth indicating rising inflation pressures [12][13] Group 3: Analyzing the Data Combinations - A combination of strong employment, low unemployment, and fast wage growth signals a robust labor market, typically leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices [18][19] - Conversely, weak employment, high unemployment, and slow wage growth suggest economic slowdown, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [20][21] - Mixed signals, such as strong employment with rising unemployment, indicate market volatility and uncertainty [22][23] Group 4: Market Reactions to Non-Farm Data - Strong NFP data typically results in a rising dollar index, while weak data leads to a declining dollar [24] - Gold and silver prices generally move inversely to the dollar, with strong NFP data causing short-term declines in these precious metals [25] - U.S. Treasury yields react similarly, with strong data leading to rising yields and falling bond prices [26] Group 5: Practical Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for NFP data by observing market expectations and setting strict stop-loss levels to manage risks [29][30] - Following the data release, it is recommended to wait for market stabilization before entering trades, confirming the direction of the initial market reaction [31][32] Group 6: Integrating Other Economic Indicators - NFP data should not be analyzed in isolation; it should be considered alongside other indicators like ADP employment data and initial jobless claims for a comprehensive view [35] - Establishing a systematic approach to track related economic indicators can enhance predictive accuracy regarding NFP outcomes [35]