截至发稿时，衡量美元兑六种主要货币表现的美元指数（DXY）上涨近0.4%，接近97.60。在此前连续两 日回调后，美元指数重新恢复上行走势。 周三欧洲交易时段，美元/日元上涨0.45%，交投接近148.30。美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中未支持激进的鸽 派立场，令美元兑多数主要货币走强，从而推动美元/日元大幅上扬。 鲍威尔的表态与其他几位联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）官员的观点一致。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆、 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克，以及克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周一均表示，央行在进一步解除货币政策限制 时需要谨慎，原因是通胀风险依然存在。 君諾金融展望后市，投资者将关注美国耐用品订单数据以及8月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，分别于周 四和周五公布，这些数据将成为市场下一步的重要参考。 另一方面，日本9月制造业活动再度下滑。最新公布的Jibun银行制造业PMI初值为48.4，低于8月的49.7。 经济学家此前预计本月制造业PMI将回升至50.2。服务业PMI则小幅回落，从上月的53.1降至53.0，显示扩 张速度有所放缓。 周二，鲍威尔在"大普罗维登斯商会"的讲话中表示，上行的通胀风险与就业市场需求放缓给美联储带来 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在昨日讲话中对未来降息前景保持谨慎态度，美元指数（DXY）小幅上涨至97.5。鲍 威尔指出，若过度降息可能导致通胀治理未竟，美联储未来或被迫再次加息；但若利率维持过高过久， 则可能削弱劳动力市场。他强调当前面临就业与通胀"双重风险"，并未就10月议息会议是否降息给出明 确信号。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the global foreign exchange market is centered around the weakening U.S. economic data and the resulting increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - A series of weak economic indicators, including a significantly lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase, a four-year high in initial jobless claims, and a decline in the consumer confidence index for the second consecutive month, depict a cooling labor market and weakening overall economic momentum [1] - Despite the CPI inflation data for August being slightly above expectations, market confidence in the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish policy remains strong, with a general expectation of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The Euro and British Pound have benefited from the general weakness of the U.S. dollar, with the Euro rising above the 1.1700 mark and the Pound testing the 1.3600 level [2] - The Australian Dollar has emerged as a standout currency, reaching a nearly 10-month high and surpassing 0.6600, driven by strong commodity prices and domestic inflation data that reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [2] - The Chinese Yuan has shown steady appreciation against the U.S. dollar, supported by the PBOC's proactive guidance on the midpoint [2] Group 3 - Market attention is focused on the upcoming meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with expectations of cautious market sentiment ahead of these significant risk events [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical juncture, influenced by divergent monetary policies of major central banks, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and mixed macroeconomic data, challenging the dominance of the US dollar while the euro and yen struggle within their respective economic cycles [1]. Group 1: US Dollar Index (DXY) - The DXY is currently oscillating around 97.551, reflecting the market's reliance on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance while harboring deep concerns about the US economic growth outlook [2]. - The market anticipates the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy to combat persistent inflation, with rate hike expectations cooling but nearly no anticipation for rate cuts this year, providing solid support for the dollar [2][3]. - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with strong labor market indicators supporting the Fed's tightening policy, while weak manufacturing and housing data indicate cooling in interest-sensitive sectors, creating a dilemma for the dollar's movement [3]. Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The EUR/USD struggles around 1.17410, reflecting the European Central Bank's (ECB) difficult balancing act between combating inflation and concerns over economic recession [4]. - The ECB's decision to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% is not surprising, but President Lagarde's "data-dependent" approach suggests a strategy of "buying time" amid complex challenges [5]. - The risk of fragmentation within the Eurozone, indicated by the widening yield spread between German and Italian bonds, poses a significant threat to the euro's upward potential unless a strong economic recovery occurs [6]. Group 3: Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) - The USD/JPY trades around 147.058, amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential exit from its long-standing negative interest rate and yield curve control policies [7]. - The BoJ faces increasing pressure to normalize its policy as domestic inflation stabilizes above 2%, with market expectations for action in the coming quarters, which could reshape global capital flows [7]. - The timing of the BoJ's policy shift remains uncertain, as premature tightening could jeopardize economic recovery and impact Japan's substantial government debt market [8]. Group 4: Other Currencies and Strategic Outlook - The forex market is driven by three main themes: divergence in monetary policies among the Fed, ECB, and BoJ; the momentum of global economic growth; and evolving geopolitical and trade relationships [10]. - The GBP/USD reflects the UK's "stagflation" dilemma, while the AUD/USD's outlook is closely tied to China's economic recovery, and the USD/CAD is significantly influenced by oil price fluctuations [11]. - A core-satellite strategy is recommended, focusing on the dollar while allocating positions in euros and yen based on specific drivers, emphasizing the importance of data analysis and central bank communications [12].