周三亚洲交易时段，纽元/美元汇率上涨0.16%，至0.5980附近。美元走弱是推动这一变化的主要原因，尤 其是在美国总统特朗普的国情咨文演讲后。 在新西兰方面，新西兰元的走势整体较为平稳。由于新西兰的经济日程在本周相对清淡，纽元并未受到太 多外部冲击。 新西兰中央银行（RBNZ）行长安娜·布雷曼在本月的货币政策声明中表示，随着新西兰经济逐步回暖，经 济增长有望加速，但她同时指出，当前的经济形势并未显现出再度引发强烈通胀的风险。因此，市场对新 西兰央行加息的预期并不强烈，纽元的短期走势主要依赖于全球市场的变化。 新西兰的货币政策保持相对宽松，但全球经济形势的变化仍可能对纽元产生影响。在全球经济面临不确定 性的情况下，新西兰元作为一种较为风险的货币，可能会在市场情绪波动时经历一定的调整。尤其是新西 兰作为出口导向型经济体，其货币受全球需求变化的影响较大。目前新西兰央行的政策立场显示出对经济 复苏的乐观态度，这为纽元的走强提供了一定的支持。 当前全球经济形势复杂，对汇率市场影响深远。特朗普的经济政策可能对美元带来短期压力，但美联储的 立场为美元提供了较强支撑。新西兰方面，尽管经济增长良好，央行的温和政策使得纽元短期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the USD/CHF currency pair reflect a cautious investor sentiment towards the Swiss franc, influenced by a temporary slowdown in the dollar's strength and expectations of a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming March meeting has increased from 9.4% to 22.7%, indicating a growing market expectation for a more accommodative monetary policy [3]. - Recent labor market data shows signs of a slowdown in hiring demand, with December JOLTS job openings at 6.542 million, below the expected 7 million and the previous value of 6.928 million [4]. - The ADP report indicates that only 22,000 jobs were added in January, significantly lower than the 37,000 jobs added in December, further supporting the notion of a decelerating job market [4][5]. Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The Swiss National Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at 0% in the short term, focusing on inflation and price stability despite a complex global economic environment [6]. - SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized the bank's commitment to ensuring price stability, which may lead to limited support for the Swiss franc in the near term [6]. - The fluctuations in the USD/CHF pair reflect a dynamic interplay between expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the SNB's stance on interest rates and inflation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has turned down after a period of recovery, influenced by President Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, which raised expectations for a "hawkish" leadership at the Fed [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The nomination briefly reversed market sentiment regarding the weakening of the dollar, but fundamental conditions remain unchanged [1][2] - The dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.2% to 97.419 [1][2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Michael Pfister from Deutsche Bank noted that the dollar has depreciated against the average of G10 currencies this year [1][2] - There is high uncertainty in US policy, with the Labor Department announcing a delay in the non-farm payroll report due to a partial government shutdown [1][2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) remains subdued following the release of December CPI data, with the inflation rate rising to 3.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to tighten monetary policy due to inflation rates exceeding the target of 2-3%, supported by recent PMI and employment data [2] - The AUD/USD currency pair showed a slight decline after a previous increase of over 1%, trading around 0.6990, indicating a bullish bias within an ascending channel [3] Group 2 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a drop of over 1% in the previous trading session, reflecting a prevailing "sell the US" sentiment, with DXY nearing its lowest level since February 2022 [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates between 3.50%-3.75% after a series of rate cuts, with attention on the subsequent press conference for future policy guidance [4] - Australia's employment change in December rebounded significantly to 65.2K, surpassing the revised figure of 28.7K in November, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1%, below market consensus [4]

Group 1 - President Trump expressed confidence in the performance of the US dollar, stating it is not a concern for him and that a return to its "proper level" is reasonable [2] - Following Trump's comments, the US dollar index (DXY) initially rose but then fell sharply, dropping over 50 points to a new low since February 2022, closing at 96.219 [2] - The euro and British pound strengthened against the dollar, with the euro rising to 1.1979 and the pound to 1.3780 [2] Group 2 - The weakening dollar has led to a rebound in non-US currencies, with the offshore yuan approaching the 6.93 mark [4] - Safe-haven assets like gold have benefited, with spot gold reaching a historical high above $5,180 per ounce [4] Group 3 - Market sentiment is influenced by uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to the ongoing "sell America" trend [5] - Concerns over a potential government shutdown due to disagreements in Congress have further pressured the dollar [5] - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [5][6] Group 4 - The focus in the forex market has shifted to the Japanese yen, which has appreciated approximately 3% over the past two trading days, with the dollar falling to 152.77 yen [8] - Reports of the New York Federal Reserve inquiring about dollar-yen quotes have raised expectations of potential intervention, impacting broader dollar assets [8][9] - Barclays suggests that potential intervention in the yen market could further weaken the dollar's flow picture, despite no official confirmation of such actions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is showing an upward trend, influenced by strong US economic data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [1][3][4] Group 1: USD Performance - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly increased, hovering around 98.70, following a strong ISM services PMI report that rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, surpassing economists' expectations of 52.3 [3] - The robust performance of the services PMI, which is a significant component of the US economy, indicates stability supported by the high-tech sector [3] - Market expectations suggest at least two 25 basis point interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve within the year, influenced by the strong PMI data [3] Group 2: CHF Performance - The Swiss franc (CHF) has shown resilience against the US dollar, with expectations of a slight increase in the Swiss inflation rate from 0% in November to 0.1% in December, which may lead to a relatively stable policy direction from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [3][4] - The CHF's stability is attributed to cautious trading behavior as the market awaits key economic data releases, including the US non-farm payrolls and Swiss CPI [4] - If the Swiss CPI data meets expectations, it is anticipated that the SNB will maintain a moderate policy stance for an extended period, which could influence short-term trading sentiment for the CHF [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rates and inflation [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [1]. - Traders are focusing on the upcoming RBA meeting minutes to gauge the central bank's policy direction and stance on inflation [2]. - As of December 18, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for February 2026 indicate a 27% probability of the RBA raising rates to 3.85% [3]. Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US dollar has ended a three-day rally, with the dollar index (DXY) trading around 98.60, as market participants await the release of the US Q3 GDP annualized data [4]. - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester stated that current monetary policy is appropriate for pausing rate hikes to assess the impact of previous rate cuts [4]. - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [4]. Group 3: Leadership Changes in the Federal Reserve - The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be someone who supports significant rate cuts, with Christopher Waller being a potential candidate who has reiterated a dovish stance on interest rates [5]. Group 4: Australian Inflation Data - Australian consumer inflation expectations have risen from 4.5% in November to 4.7% in December, supporting a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia [6]. Group 5: Australian Dollar Technical Analysis - The Australian dollar is currently trading around 0.6620, maintaining an overall upward trend, with key resistance levels at 0.6685 and 0.6707 [8]. - The 14-day RSI is at 57.05, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment, while the 9-day EMA shows an upward trend but may exert short-term pressure on prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to a 10-week low of 97.902, down from a previous level of 98.061 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the DXY indicates a weakening of the US dollar against a basket of currencies [1] - The drop to 97.902 represents a significant movement in the currency market, reflecting potential shifts in investor sentiment and economic outlook [1] - This change in the dollar's value may have implications for international trade and investment flows [1]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD currency pair has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, influenced by the weakening of the US dollar, reaching around 1.3750 [1] - The Federal Reserve signaled plans to lower the federal funds rate to 3.4% by 2026, while the Bank of Canada indicated that current interest rates should be maintained in the short term [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) remains weak, hovering near a seven-week low of 98.13, as market expectations suggest more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than indicated in the latest dot plot [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar is performing strongly against most major currencies, except for currencies from Australasia, due to the low likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [2] - The Bank of Canada reaffirmed that current interest rates are sufficient to keep inflation near the target of 2%, as long as economic and inflation trends meet expectations [2] Group 3 - The USD/CAD pair has dropped to 1.3760, remaining below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.3921, indicating a bearish short-term trend [5] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28, indicating an oversold condition, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3772 serves as short-term support [5] - If the pair closes below the 1.3772 support level, it may open up further declines towards the 78.6% retracement level at 1.3671 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Chris Turner from ING suggests that if the upcoming US October JOLTs job openings data is better than expected, the US dollar is likely to strengthen [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, but there is a cautious attitude towards further rate cuts [1] - Given the fragile pricing of further easing by the Federal Reserve, the downside potential for the dollar is considered limited before the Fed meeting [1] Group 2: Potential Impact of Data Release - If the data released on Tuesday shows any positive surprises, the US Dollar Index (DXY) could rise to 99.30 [1]