近期多位美联储官员对政策前景表达不同看法。理事斯蒂芬·米兰认为当前货币政策偏紧，并提到房价 放缓正在帮助抑制通胀；而亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克则重申，只有在通胀回到2%目标的明确 迹象出现后，才会考虑降息。他同时宣布将于明年初卸任职务。此外，尼尔·卡什卡利、阿尔贝托·穆萨 莱姆及贝丝·哈马克等官员也将发表讲话，市场期待从中捕捉货币政策走向的更多线索。 随着美国政府重新运作，市场关注点转回经济增长与通胀平衡。若未来数据持续疲弱，降息预期或将进 一步强化，为黄金提供支撑；反之，若美联储官员讲话偏鹰，美元可能走强，黄金短线承压。 美国众议院周三以222票对209票通过了拨款方案，为总统唐纳德·特朗普签署法案扫清障碍。此前参议 院已表决通过，标志着美国史上持续时间最长的政府停摆正式告终。该法案将维持政府运作至明年1月 30日。停摆的结束令市场风险情绪回暖，但同时也意味着被延迟的经济数据将陆续恢复发布，市场对经 济增长放缓的担忧可能重新升温。 黄金价格延续涨势，主要受市场对美联储年内降息预期支撑。CME"美联储观察工具"显示，投资者预 期12月降息25个基点的概率约为64%。分析指出，较低的利率环境通常削弱美元吸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak employment data strengthening interest rate cut expectations, while progress on government funding stabilizes the dollar [1][4] - The ADP report indicates a reduction of approximately 11,000 jobs per week in the private sector, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][4] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to be voted on by the House, potentially leading to the reopening of the government and the resumption of delayed official data [1][3] Group 2 - Gold prices have risen to around $4,140, a two-week high, driven by lower interest rate expectations reducing the holding costs of gold [2][4] - The dollar index has rebounded to the 99.50–99.55 range following the Senate's approval of the funding bill, despite concerns about potential economic slowdown reflected in upcoming data [3][4] - The Australian dollar and British pound are under pressure due to respective economic factors, with the Australian dollar hovering around 0.6520 and the British pound declining to approximately 1.3130 [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of government reopening and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as these will be key catalysts for market direction [4] - The upcoming votes in the House and the performance of official data post-reopening will directly impact market risk appetite [3][4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data as a key indicator of the U.S. economy's health, influencing various financial markets including the dollar, gold, and silver [3][4][37] Group 1: Understanding Non-Farm Data - Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data is released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment changes in all sectors except agriculture, making it a crucial economic health indicator [3][4] - The NFP data is vital for assessing economic conditions, predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy, and guiding short-term trading strategies [3][4][37] Group 2: Key Components of Non-Farm Data - The three critical indicators in the NFP report are: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings [4][12] - New jobs added is the most sensitive indicator, with higher-than-expected figures indicating a strong job market and economic activity [5][6] - The unemployment rate serves as a stability signal for the labor market, with a decrease indicating improvement and an increase suggesting economic weakness [10][12] - Average hourly earnings reflect inflation and consumer spending power, with rapid growth indicating rising inflation pressures [12][13] Group 3: Analyzing the Data Combinations - A combination of strong employment, low unemployment, and fast wage growth signals a robust labor market, typically leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices [18][19] - Conversely, weak employment, high unemployment, and slow wage growth suggest economic slowdown, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [20][21] - Mixed signals, such as strong employment with rising unemployment, indicate market volatility and uncertainty [22][23] Group 4: Market Reactions to Non-Farm Data - Strong NFP data typically results in a rising dollar index, while weak data leads to a declining dollar [24] - Gold and silver prices generally move inversely to the dollar, with strong NFP data causing short-term declines in these precious metals [25] - U.S. Treasury yields react similarly, with strong data leading to rising yields and falling bond prices [26] Group 5: Practical Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for NFP data by observing market expectations and setting strict stop-loss levels to manage risks [29][30] - Following the data release, it is recommended to wait for market stabilization before entering trades, confirming the direction of the initial market reaction [31][32] Group 6: Integrating Other Economic Indicators - NFP data should not be analyzed in isolation; it should be considered alongside other indicators like ADP employment data and initial jobless claims for a comprehensive view [35] - Establishing a systematic approach to track related economic indicators can enhance predictive accuracy regarding NFP outcomes [35]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,960, nearly 20% below its October high of $126,500, marking its lowest level since late June 2025 [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 35th day, creating uncertainty in global markets and affecting liquidity [1][2] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen above 100 for the first time since August 1, indicating stronger demand for the dollar, which typically pressures risk assets like Bitcoin [2] Government Shutdown Impact - A U.S. government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass funding bills, leading to furloughed employees and halted services, which directly impacts liquidity and cash flow in financial markets [3] - During the shutdown, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has seen its balance increase to approximately $965 billion, a rise of roughly $150 billion since October, indicating money is being pulled out of circulation [4] - The Reverse Repo Program (RRP) has also increased by about $20 billion this week, further draining liquidity from the market [5] Liquidity Conditions - Bank reserves have dropped to the lower range of what the Federal Reserve considers "ample," leading to tighter funding conditions [6] - Rising SOFR spreads and record usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) indicate a short-term liquidity squeeze, with banks borrowing over $10 billion recently, the highest since the SRF's launch in 2021 [6] - These liquidity pressures are contributing to Bitcoin's struggle to gain momentum and remain trapped in a choppy trading range [5][6]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has officially matched the longest record in history, lasting 35 days since October 1, with no resolution in sight [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by 2% to 3% [1] - The absence of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls (NFP) and GDP, has left the market in a "blind flying" state, increasing reliance on private sector indicators like the ISM manufacturing PMI [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Reactions - The market is still digesting the Federal Reserve's recent policy shift, which has led to a tightening of global liquidity beyond expectations [3] - Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks following a 25 basis point rate cut have downplayed expectations for another cut in December, resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar index (DXY) and rising short-term U.S. Treasury yields [3][4] - The tightening liquidity has put pressure on risk assets, including stocks, emerging market currencies, and cryptocurrencies [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is under pressure due to the Fed's "hawkish rate cut" and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $110,000 [8] - A negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index has re-emerged, where each dollar strength puts pressure on major digital assets [9] - Altcoins have experienced deeper declines, with Ethereum (ETH) struggling to maintain the $3,800 level, and smaller tokens lagging behind [10] Group 4: Future Market Focus - The market remains focused on whether the U.S. government shutdown can be resolved soon, with new budget deadlines approaching that may force negotiations [6] - Reports indicate that moderate Republicans and Democrats are informally discussing potential compromises to restart the government [6] - Until clear progress is made, uncertainty will remain high, potentially triggering risk-averse sentiment in the market [7]

美联储将利率下调25个基点至3.75%–4.00%，并确认量化紧缩（QT）将在12月1日结束，同时在年底前恢复政策灵活性。市场目前预期12月再度降息的概率 为68.6%，但鲍威尔的"可选"表态让交易员保持谨慎。美元指数（DXY）守在关键支撑位之上，位于4小时的公平价值缺口（FVG）区间98.63–99.35内，维 持偏强走势。 美联储10月降息，但12月仍未定 10月29日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.75%–4.00%，并宣布量化紧缩将在12月1日结束。 这一决定标志着一次"谨慎的转向"——放松政策但仍保持控制。美联储指出就业增长放缓、金融条件趋紧，但主席鲍威尔强调，政策不会沿着预设路径前 行。 市场早已消化此次降息，但新闻发布会的基调却使美元获得支撑。鲍威尔拒绝提前承诺进一步行动，削弱了市场对激进宽松周期的预期。 12月FOMC展望：68.6%的降息可能性 根据CMEFedWatch工具，交易员认为12月再次降息的概率为68.6%，维持不变的概率为31.4%。 10月如何影响12月？ QT结束带来缓冲：12月1日起流动性将略有增加，降低了继续降息的紧迫性。 数据依赖：11月公 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, with a 91% probability of another rate cut in December [1] - Market participants are closely watching Chairman Powell's post-meeting speech to gauge the future pace of monetary easing, which could impact the dollar's yield and support for precious metals [1] - The dollar index (DXY) has shown resilience, recovering to around 98.90, despite strong rate cut expectations, influenced by stabilizing US-China relations and some investors closing positions [1] Group 2 - Spot gold is maintaining above $3950, with active buying at lower levels, as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - If the Fed's policy statement is dovish, gold prices may test the psychological level of $4000 and potentially challenge the $4050 to $4100 range [2] - The upcoming US-China summit may improve trade sentiment, while US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the ongoing government shutdown add to geopolitical uncertainties [2]

截至发稿时，衡量美元兑六种主要货币表现的美元指数（DXY）上涨近0.4%，接近97.60。在此前连续两 日回调后，美元指数重新恢复上行走势。 周三欧洲交易时段，美元/日元上涨0.45%，交投接近148.30。美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中未支持激进的鸽 派立场，令美元兑多数主要货币走强，从而推动美元/日元大幅上扬。 鲍威尔的表态与其他几位联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）官员的观点一致。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆、 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克，以及克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周一均表示，央行在进一步解除货币政策限制 时需要谨慎，原因是通胀风险依然存在。 君諾金融展望后市，投资者将关注美国耐用品订单数据以及8月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，分别于周 四和周五公布，这些数据将成为市场下一步的重要参考。 另一方面，日本9月制造业活动再度下滑。最新公布的Jibun银行制造业PMI初值为48.4，低于8月的49.7。 经济学家此前预计本月制造业PMI将回升至50.2。服务业PMI则小幅回落，从上月的53.1降至53.0，显示扩 张速度有所放缓。 周二，鲍威尔在"大普罗维登斯商会"的讲话中表示，上行的通胀风险与就业市场需求放缓给美联储带来 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在昨日讲话中对未来降息前景保持谨慎态度，美元指数（DXY）小幅上涨至97.5。鲍 威尔指出，若过度降息可能导致通胀治理未竟，美联储未来或被迫再次加息；但若利率维持过高过久， 则可能削弱劳动力市场。他强调当前面临就业与通胀"双重风险"，并未就10月议息会议是否降息给出明 确信号。 来源：滚动播报 ...