智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，顺应新消费趋势，挖掘供给升级机会。该行认为2026年大众 品板块有以下投资主线：1)产品及服务的高质价比改造，既包括传统线下门店业态的提质与折扣化改 造，也包括厂商推出品质更优或能彰显个性、提升情绪价值的差异化产品;2)渗透率持续提升的高景气 品种，具备健康属性的品种可在长期持续替代相近品类;3)前期受损较重行业的预期反转，包括酒水、 餐饮行业及牧业;4)个股逻辑主导下业绩确定性较强的标的;5)高股息或高综合股东回报标的。 国信证券主要观点如下： 回顾2025年：内需相对疲弱，行业整体降速 2025年前三季度中国城镇居民人均可支配收入同比增速4.4%，增幅放缓，消费信心未有明显修复，年 中限酒条例亦形成短期扰动。受此影响，2025年食品饮料板块继续表现弱势，2025年年初以来，食品饮 料板块下跌5.3%，跑输沪深300指数19.4个百分点。子板块中，软饮料行业维持相对较高的景气度，零 食行业呈现分化表现，量贩零食龙头继续开店、魔芋零食放量形成局部亮点，相关个股表现良好。 展望2026年：结构性机会仍存，渠道分化、供给升级 在需求总量温和复苏的基本假设下，该行判断大众品仍 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of macroeconomic changes and consumer behavior on the liquor industry in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift towards online growth and personal drinking scenarios [1][4]. Economic Overview - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is projected at 5.3%, reflecting resilience but facing challenges in consumer sentiment [1][13]. - Consumption policies have been implemented, with a total of nearly 370 billion yuan in subsidies targeting newborns, students, and low-income groups, contributing to market recovery [1][17]. Consumer Behavior - A "frugal" mindset is prevalent among consumers, with 72% seeking additional income sources and 47% focusing on essential purchases to avoid waste [2][11]. - Quality (35%), cost-effectiveness (31%), and brand recognition (23%) are the primary considerations for consumers, indicating a shift towards rational consumption [2][11]. Sales Channel Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the overall sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) grew by 4.7%, with online channels leading at a growth rate of 21.1%, while offline channels saw a decline of 4.3% [2][3]. - Online sales of liquor are driven by competitive pricing and the growing influence of younger consumers, while traditional retail faces significant pressure [2][3]. Liquor Market Trends - The liquor market shows a divergence between online and offline performance, with an online index of 61.30, significantly above the benchmark, driven primarily by strong sales of white liquor [3][4]. - The offline supermarket index is at 49.77, close to the benchmark, indicating stable pricing but declining volumes, particularly in white and red wines [3][4]. Consumption Scenarios - There is a notable shift from collective drinking occasions to personal drinking experiences, with consumers increasingly favoring home consumption and relaxation [4][5]. - The demand for smaller packaging and lower-alcohol products is rising, reflecting the changing preferences of consumers [4][5]. Price Trends - The liquor market exhibits a "polarization" in pricing, with significant growth in both economy-priced and high-end products, while mid-range products see slower growth [4][5]. - Different liquor types show varying price spans, with some covering both mass and premium markets, while others focus on mass consumption [4][5]. Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to align closely with evolving consumer demands, channel transformations, and product innovations [5]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance online marketing and adapt to younger consumer preferences while revitalizing offline channels through experiential upgrades [5].

Summary of the Conference Call for汤臣倍健 Company Overview - **Company**: 汤臣倍健 - **Period**: Q1 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 33% year-on-year to 1.792 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in foot traffic in offline pharmacies, adjustments in protein powder products, and ongoing online business adjustments [4][2] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 455 million yuan, a 37% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit margin of approximately 25.4%, down by two percentage points [2][4] - The company is currently in an adjustment phase, impacted by channel differentiation and competition from foreign brands [4][2] Business Strategies - The company plans to continue its offline channel strategy in Q2, including new product launches and terminal awakening plans to boost sales conversion [2][7] - A successful pilot for calcium and vitamin D products exceeded expectations, leading to plans for more new specifications and differentiated services to drive sales [2][6] - The EQ initiative has shown initial success, with the盖 DK product achieving over 1 million boxes in monthly sales within three months of launch, with expectations for sales to double this year [2][9] Online Channel Developments - Online channels showed a double-digit decline in Q1 but improved sequentially. The company aims to drive positive growth through product innovation and enhanced performance in basic nutrients [2][10] - New high-priced products, such as premium protein powders and glucosamine, are set to launch, alongside efforts to build a presence on Douyin (TikTok) through live streaming [2][10] Cost Management - The decline in revenue led to a reduction in sales and management expense ratios, with a one percentage point decrease in sales expense ratio, indicating effective cost control [2][11] - The company anticipates that the profit margin for 2025 will remain stable compared to 2024, with a slight decrease in expense ratios expected [12][11] Market Outlook - The competitive landscape in the food and beverage industry is expected to remain consistent with 2024, with Douyin continuing to gain market share over traditional e-commerce platforms [15][16] - Demand growth is projected to be low single digits, with an increase in brand entries, including unbranded and cross-border brands, but lacking significant catalysts for growth [16][15] Product Iteration and Channel Strategy - The iteration of健力多 and protein powder products has been completed, but sales have not met expectations due to declining foot traffic in pharmacies and consumer purchasing power issues [5][13] - The company is adopting independent operational strategies for online and offline channels to avoid vicious competition, with plans to expand market share on Douyin [14][5] Future Projections - The company expects seasonal fluctuations in revenue to be smaller in 2025 compared to 2024, with a focus on terminal sales and new product launches [6][12] - The overall business strategy for Q2 will include continued focus on offline channels and product trials, with an emphasis on enhancing customer engagement and sales conversion [7][6] Regulatory Impact - The implementation of medical insurance policies in pharmacies is becoming stricter, affecting the company's product categories, which do not qualify for insurance payments [18][12] Conclusion 汤臣倍健 is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic adjustments in both offline and online channels, focusing on product innovation and cost management to stabilize revenue and profit margins in 2025. The company is also preparing for a competitive landscape in the food and beverage industry while addressing regulatory challenges in the pharmacy sector.