Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report highlights a divergence in the performance of the consumer sector within the S&P 500, with non-essential consumer goods up 5.06% and essential goods down 0.55% in the year-to-date [1] Group 1: Non-Essential Consumer Goods - Southwest Airlines (LUV.US) has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.7% and is rated "Underweight" by Morgan Stanley, with a Seeking Alpha quant rating of 2.91, due to overly aggressive Q4 earnings guidance and the highest valuation among analysts' coverage, projecting a P/E ratio of 13x by 2026 [1] - Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) has experienced a slight year-to-date drop of 0.3% and is also rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 2.70, facing potential demand issues as federal EV tax credits expire in 2025 and changes in compliance penalties threaten its business model [2] - Krispy Kreme (DNUT.US) has seen a significant stock decline of 65.5%, rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 1.11, primarily due to a high-leverage balance sheet affecting U.S. business recovery and uncertainty in international asset restructuring [3] - Shake Shack (SHAK.US) has dropped 28.4% and is rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 2.86, as its high pricing strategy limits expansion potential, necessitating a balance between high ingredient costs and customer frequency [3] Group 2: Essential Consumer Goods - Brown-Forman (BF.B.US) has faced a year-to-date decline of 26.7% and is rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 1.78, as its core brand Jack Daniel's whiskey continues to lose market share amid structural pressures on global alcohol consumption, despite its stock trading at a 20% premium to peers [2] - Beyond Meat (BYND.US) has seen a drastic stock drop of 42%, rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 1.13, as its market share in plant-based meat continues to shrink, leading to ongoing losses and a deteriorating balance sheet [2]