蔡英超表示，多重因素叠加引发"到货潮"。年初以来，伊朗甲醇装置复产速度缓慢，上半年伊朗与以色 列爆发军事冲突，航运线路受阻，伊朗当地厂家和港口的甲醇大量积压，无法正常发运。直至冲突结 束、航运恢复，此前积压的甲醇集中发往中国，给港口带来"到货冲击"。更为关键的是，伊朗当地为快 速去库，采取"降价促销"策略，其甲醇价格长期低于国际进口均价，国内进口商见状纷纷加大进口力 度，大量伊朗甲醇涌入港口，直接推高库存。 对此，张晓艳补充道，除伊朗货源之外，东南亚部分新项目投产后，今年多数时间段运行稳健，持续稳 定供货。同时，下半年受印度制裁影响，原本流向印度的批量中东甲醇，转而大量流入中国市场，进一 步加剧了港口的库存压力。 需求端的疲软则让港口市场 "雪上加霜"。张晓艳表示，海外方面，下半年欧美、东南亚需求较弱，部 分原本销往这些地区的非伊朗甲醇，转而销至中国市场。国内方面，醋酸及MTBE大投产压制产业经济 性，导致部分下游行业开工率被迫降低，叠加国内MTO（甲醇制烯烃）阶段性低开工，多重因素共振 使得沿海甲醇表观需求疲软。此外，今年油品市场偏弱，为甲醇高进口、高库存提供了充足的仓储条 件，也在一定程度上助推了库存高企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a significant divergence between the northern and southern regions, with the northern market facing tight supply and rising prices, while the southern market is burdened by high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Northern Market Dynamics - The northern methanol market is benefiting from three favorable factors: seasonal maintenance leading to reduced production rates, increased demand due to upcoming holidays, and higher external procurement by some methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities [1]. - As of September 12, the inventory of major methanol producers in Northwest China was approximately 200,000 tons, which is 100,000 to 150,000 tons lower than historical levels, supporting a strong price performance [1]. Group 2: Southern Market Challenges - In contrast, the southern coastal methanol market is facing a significant increase in port inventory, which reached 1,550,300 tons as of September 11, surpassing the previous high of 1,478,900 tons in 2019 [2]. - The surge in port inventory is attributed to a combination of increased imports and weak downstream demand, reflecting a broader trend of weak supply and demand in the industry [2][3]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to High Inventory - The high port inventory is primarily due to a "arrival surge" caused by delayed shipments from Iran, which were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and subsequent price reductions to clear stock [3]. - Additionally, stable supply from Southeast Asia and a shift in Middle Eastern methanol flows to China due to sanctions on India have further increased inventory pressures [3][4]. Group 4: Demand Weakness - Weak demand from both overseas and domestic markets has compounded the inventory issues, with reduced operating rates in downstream industries such as acetic acid and MTBE, as well as low MTO production rates [4]. - The current market situation reflects a conflict between the weak reality of port inventories and the stronger future expectations, although the overall supply-demand balance remains stable [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the market may see improvements starting in November when the "protect residential natural gas" policy is implemented, potentially reducing methanol production capacity by approximately 20 million tons per year [5]. - A seasonal inventory reduction is expected to begin in October, which could alleviate pressure on the port market and lead to potential price rebounds by the first or second quarter of the following year [5].