Shipping Market - The Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for various types of US-related vessels, which is expected to reduce shipping efficiency and raise freight rates [1] - High port fees in China may hinder affected vessels from offsetting costs through freight rates, leading to potential trade disputes and unloading difficulties [1] - A decrease in available vessels and efficiency in the medium term is anticipated, which could elevate the freight rate baseline [1] Shipbuilding Market - Chinese shipbuilding is exempt from the new port fee policy, benefiting the domestic shipbuilding industry [1] - The new port fee measures are more stringent than previous US policies, which may lead to a continued influx of shipbuilding orders back to China [1] - If port fees in China and the US are reduced or eliminated in the future, it could remove significant downward pressure on ship prices and new orders [1] Company Fleet Structure - The company has a high-quality fleet structure, having signed six new shipbuilding contracts worth $308 million in the first half of 2025, with a 100% share of mid-to-high-end ship types [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company operates 121 vessels with an average age of approximately 4.13 years, indicating a competitive and young fleet [2] - The average remaining lease term for contracts over one year is 7.64 years, enhancing the stability of the company's earnings [2] Cost Control and Financial Structure - The company has effectively controlled financing costs, achieving a comprehensive financing cost of 3.1%, a reduction of 40 basis points since the beginning of the year [3] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 65.2%, down 2.3% from the end of the previous year, with a diversified borrowing structure to mitigate high interest expenses [3] - The company maintained a high dividend payout, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.05 per share, up from HKD 0.03 in previous years, leading to an estimated annual dividend yield of approximately 7.7% [3] Profit Forecast and Rating - The profit forecast has been adjusted downward due to changes in OECD tax policies, with expected net profits of HKD 2 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.4 billion for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its strong fleet structure, effective cost control, and high dividend payout [3]

上 市 公 司 非银金融 2025 年 10 月 23 日 中国船舶租赁 (03877) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.92 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9223.78 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 2.40/1.55 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 119.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,199.22 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9130 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -8% 12% 32% 52% HSCEI 中国船舶租赁 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 联系人 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 投资 ...