港股与美股联动性

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国泰海通|海外策略:港股涨跌更看谁的“脸色”
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-25 15:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares has significantly increased since 2020, while the correlation with US stocks has weakened [1][2][3] - Historically, Hong Kong stocks were more correlated with US stocks, particularly from 1970 to 2020, but since 2020, this correlation has diminished, especially in 2021 and 2023 [1] - The increase in correlation between Hong Kong and A-shares is attributed to a decrease in foreign capital's share in Hong Kong stocks and an increase in domestic liquidity [1][2] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks have become less dependent on overseas liquidity since 2020, with valuation contributing more to price movements, aligning with the increased correlation with A-shares [2] - The decline in foreign capital's share is influenced by geopolitical factors, currency arbitrage, and changes in the price-performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks [2] - Domestic capital has accelerated its inflow into Hong Kong stocks due to price advantages and scarcity of investment targets, further linking Hong Kong's liquidity to mainland capital behavior [2] Group 3 - The fundamental performance of Hong Kong stocks is increasingly related to mainland China, with over two-thirds of listed companies being Chinese enterprises, contributing 90% of net profits [3] - The proportion of mainland enterprises listed in Hong Kong has risen since 2020, supported by policies aimed at developing Hong Kong's capital market [3] - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and overseas markets has weakened, with less impact from changes in overseas demand and economic cycles since 2020 [3]