港股涨跌更看谁的脸色？20250625 摘要 港股与 A 股联动性显著增强，2020 年后滚动 12 个月相关系数维持在 80%-90%高位，远超历史平均水平，主要由于南向资金流入和内地企 业赴港上市，改变了港股投资环境。 外资持续流出港股，占比从最高峰近 80%降至 61%，累计流出超 7,400 亿港元，受地缘政治、港币套息交易及全球配置变化等多重因素 影响，资金结构发生显著变化。 港币套息交易加剧外资流出，美联储加息导致港美利差扩大，促使投资 者借入低利率港币兑换美元投资高收益资产，进一步影响港股资金结构。 中概股回归提升港股市场质量，已二次上市中概股占港股总市值约 70%，加强了港股与内地基本面的关联，使恒生指数更能反映中国经济 状况。 南向资金持续流入显著提升港股流动性，每年净流入超 3,000 亿港元， 2024 和 2025 年均超 7,000 亿港元，持股占比升至约 21%，成交金额 占比约 28%。 Q&A 港股与美股的联动性为何逐步减弱？ 自 2020 年以来，港股与美股之间的联动性显著减弱。历史数据显示，1970 年至今恒生指数与标普 500 指数的相关性系数高达 77%，尤其在美股大跌 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares has significantly increased since 2020, while the correlation with US stocks has weakened [1][2][3] - Historically, Hong Kong stocks were more correlated with US stocks, particularly from 1970 to 2020, but since 2020, this correlation has diminished, especially in 2021 and 2023 [1] - The increase in correlation between Hong Kong and A-shares is attributed to a decrease in foreign capital's share in Hong Kong stocks and an increase in domestic liquidity [1][2] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks have become less dependent on overseas liquidity since 2020, with valuation contributing more to price movements, aligning with the increased correlation with A-shares [2] - The decline in foreign capital's share is influenced by geopolitical factors, currency arbitrage, and changes in the price-performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks [2] - Domestic capital has accelerated its inflow into Hong Kong stocks due to price advantages and scarcity of investment targets, further linking Hong Kong's liquidity to mainland capital behavior [2] Group 3 - The fundamental performance of Hong Kong stocks is increasingly related to mainland China, with over two-thirds of listed companies being Chinese enterprises, contributing 90% of net profits [3] - The proportion of mainland enterprises listed in Hong Kong has risen since 2020, supported by policies aimed at developing Hong Kong's capital market [3] - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and overseas markets has weakened, with less impact from changes in overseas demand and economic cycles since 2020 [3]