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国泰海通|海外策略:对港股热点研究问题的思考-20250815
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-08-15 10:15
港股与A股联动性正快速增强。 历史上,港股与美股走势相关性更强。历史上港股走势与美股更相关,1970年至今恒生指数与标普500走势基本一致,港股 与美股的联动性在美股大跌时尤为突出。但2020年以来港股与美股联动性逐步减弱,尤其2021年、2023年两者走势甚至完全相悖。与之相对的,港股与A股 联动性的不断增强。从指数走势看,2002年以来恒生指数与沪深300也存在一定联动,但在2020年以前,两者相关性基本弱于恒生指数与标普500之间的相 关性,而2020年以来港股与A股相关性较以往明显增强。港股与A股、美股联动关系变化或反映港股投资环境正经历新变化。 港股流动性对海外依赖度减弱。 2020年以来估值对港股涨跌幅贡献增强,恰与港股A股联动性增强的时点吻合。由于联系汇率制度且外资占比高,过去港股 流动性受海外因素影响大。但2020年以来,由于受地缘政治、港币套息交易及港股性价比变化影响,外资占比持续下降,港股流动性对海外依赖逐步减弱。 中概股回流或也削弱了港股与美股的中期联动性。与此同时,基于港股价格优势、标的稀缺性与套利需求,内资加速流入港股,使港股流动性与内地关联加 深。港股开始更大程度反映内地资金行为逻 ...
国泰海通|海外策略:港股涨跌更看谁的“脸色”
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-25 15:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares has significantly increased since 2020, while the correlation with US stocks has weakened [1][2][3] - Historically, Hong Kong stocks were more correlated with US stocks, particularly from 1970 to 2020, but since 2020, this correlation has diminished, especially in 2021 and 2023 [1] - The increase in correlation between Hong Kong and A-shares is attributed to a decrease in foreign capital's share in Hong Kong stocks and an increase in domestic liquidity [1][2] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks have become less dependent on overseas liquidity since 2020, with valuation contributing more to price movements, aligning with the increased correlation with A-shares [2] - The decline in foreign capital's share is influenced by geopolitical factors, currency arbitrage, and changes in the price-performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks [2] - Domestic capital has accelerated its inflow into Hong Kong stocks due to price advantages and scarcity of investment targets, further linking Hong Kong's liquidity to mainland capital behavior [2] Group 3 - The fundamental performance of Hong Kong stocks is increasingly related to mainland China, with over two-thirds of listed companies being Chinese enterprises, contributing 90% of net profits [3] - The proportion of mainland enterprises listed in Hong Kong has risen since 2020, supported by policies aimed at developing Hong Kong's capital market [3] - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and overseas markets has weakened, with less impact from changes in overseas demand and economic cycles since 2020 [3]