机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：刘欣琦/张轩铭/吴浩东 本报告导读： 受益于港股交投活跃度维持高位，保证金投资规模增长对冲收益率下降影响，港交所四季度利润好于预 期；港股市场扩容以及自身服务边界拓宽，港股市场IPO 持续活跃，提升港交所中长期盈利中枢。 投资要点： 维持"增持" 评级，调升目标价至 502港元，对应25 年 35xPE。公司2025 年总收入/净利润291.6/177.5 亿 港元，同比+30% /+36%；单季度利润增速放缓，4Q25 港交所总收入/净利润73.1/43.4 亿港元，同比 +15%/+15%。海外流动性预期改善、国内稳经济政策等因素有望助推港股投融资活跃度维持高位，驱 动公司业绩稳步增长。预计公司26-28 年净利润188/197/207 亿港元，分别同比+6%/+5%/+5%，目标价 550 港元，对应26 年37 xPE，维持"增持"评级。 业绩拆分看、现货分部高增为盈利核心驱动。港股交投活跃度改善下交易相关收入提升是公司业绩增长 的主因，2025 年港交所现货、股本证券衍生品、商品、数据及连接、公司项目分部收入分别为147、 69、32、23、22 亿港元，分别同比+56% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388) with a target price raised to HKD 502, corresponding to a 35x PE for 2025 [1][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock exchange benefited from high trading activity and an increase in margin investment, which offset the decline in yield, leading to better-than-expected profits in the fourth quarter [2][9]. - The continuous expansion of the Hong Kong stock market and the broadening of its service boundaries are expected to sustain the long-term profitability of the exchange [2][9]. - The report projects total revenue and net profit for 2025 to be HKD 291.6 billion and HKD 177.5 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 30% and 36% [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at HKD 22,374 million, increasing to HKD 29,161 million in 2025A, with a growth rate of 30.3% [4][10]. - Net profit is expected to rise from HKD 13,050 million in 2024A to HKD 17,754 million in 2025A, reflecting a growth rate of 36.0% [4][10]. - The report provides a breakdown of revenue sources for 2025, with significant contributions from spot trading (HKD 147 million, +56% YoY) and equity derivatives (HKD 69 million, +11% YoY) [9][10]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 415.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 526,659 million and a 52-week price range of HKD 297.00 to HKD 462.80 [6][9]. - The report indicates that the stock's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 40.4 in 2024A to 29.66 in 2025A, indicating improved valuation [4][10]. Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes that the growth of the Hong Kong stock exchange is closely tied to the expansion of the Hong Kong stock market and the increasing demand for IPOs, particularly from mainland companies seeking internationalization [9][10]. - The anticipated improvement in overseas liquidity and domestic economic stabilization policies are expected to maintain high levels of investment activity in the Hong Kong stock market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company shows significant revenue growth driven by trading and settlement fees, with a positive outlook for future performance and valuation improvement [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [1] - In Q3 alone, the revenue and profit were HKD 78 billion and HKD 49 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 45% and 56%, and quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% and 10% [1] - The trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other net investment income saw year-on-year increases of 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4%, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trading fees and system usage fees for the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to HKD 78 billion, up 57% year-on-year, with spot, derivatives, and commodity trading contributing HKD 47 billion, HKD 20 billion, and HKD 11 billion, respectively [2] - The settlement and clearing fees reached HKD 53 billion, reflecting a 66% year-on-year increase, driven by record trading volumes in the Hong Kong spot market [2] - The number of new listings in the Hong Kong market increased to 69, a 53% year-on-year rise, with total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [3] Group 3: Investment Returns and Valuation - The net investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 was HKD 38.9 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, although the investment yield decreased due to lower returns from external investment portfolios [4] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, with potential benefits from foreign capital inflow due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is 31.2 times, positioned at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4]

投资收益对净利润贡献超3 成，保证金规模提升带动投资收益同步上行。2Q25 港交所投资收益15.4亿港 元/yoy+31%/qoq+16%，净利润贡献度为35%。投资收益分拆：公司资金：1H25 公司资金投资收益同比 提升16%至10.4 亿港元，主因美元兑港元因汇率上行而产生非经常性汇兑收益1.63 亿港元。保证金及结 算所基金：主营保证金规模提升带动投资收益提升13%。 投 资分析意见：上调25E 盈利预测，维持买入评级。我们预计随着更多境外优质中国资产回流港股、 中国内地-中国香港两地互联互通延伸至IPO 层面，港股市场市值进一步扩容，交投活跃度有望再提 升，因此我们上调港股ADT 假设和IPO 数量假设，从而上调港交所盈利预测，我们预计港交所2025- 2027E净利润分别为169、179、188 亿港元（原25E 预测为165 亿港元），yoy 分别+30%、+6%、+5%， 维持买入评级。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：罗钻辉/金黎丹 事件：8 月20 日，港交所披露1H25 年报，业绩符合预期。1H25 港交所实现总营收140.8 亿港 元/yoy+33%；主营收129.5 亿港元/yoy+34% ...