Core Viewpoint - The company shows significant revenue growth driven by trading and settlement fees, with a positive outlook for future performance and valuation improvement [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [1] - In Q3 alone, the revenue and profit were HKD 78 billion and HKD 49 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 45% and 56%, and quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% and 10% [1] - The trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other net investment income saw year-on-year increases of 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4%, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trading fees and system usage fees for the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to HKD 78 billion, up 57% year-on-year, with spot, derivatives, and commodity trading contributing HKD 47 billion, HKD 20 billion, and HKD 11 billion, respectively [2] - The settlement and clearing fees reached HKD 53 billion, reflecting a 66% year-on-year increase, driven by record trading volumes in the Hong Kong spot market [2] - The number of new listings in the Hong Kong market increased to 69, a 53% year-on-year rise, with total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [3] Group 3: Investment Returns and Valuation - The net investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 was HKD 38.9 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, although the investment yield decreased due to lower returns from external investment portfolios [4] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, with potential benefits from foreign capital inflow due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is 31.2 times, positioned at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4]

投资收益对净利润贡献超3 成，保证金规模提升带动投资收益同步上行。2Q25 港交所投资收益15.4亿港 元/yoy+31%/qoq+16%，净利润贡献度为35%。投资收益分拆：公司资金：1H25 公司资金投资收益同比 提升16%至10.4 亿港元，主因美元兑港元因汇率上行而产生非经常性汇兑收益1.63 亿港元。保证金及结 算所基金：主营保证金规模提升带动投资收益提升13%。 投 资分析意见：上调25E 盈利预测，维持买入评级。我们预计随着更多境外优质中国资产回流港股、 中国内地-中国香港两地互联互通延伸至IPO 层面，港股市场市值进一步扩容，交投活跃度有望再提 升，因此我们上调港股ADT 假设和IPO 数量假设，从而上调港交所盈利预测，我们预计港交所2025- 2027E净利润分别为169、179、188 亿港元（原25E 预测为165 亿港元），yoy 分别+30%、+6%、+5%， 维持买入评级。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：罗钻辉/金黎丹 事件：8 月20 日，港交所披露1H25 年报，业绩符合预期。1H25 港交所实现总营收140.8 亿港 元/yoy+33%；主营收129.5 亿港元/yoy+34% ...