三月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2026-03-01 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 本轮牛市以来各行业指数弹性回顾 以各行业指数至今为止高点出现的时间看，电信业务和金属材料及矿业仍未刷新一月底二月初出现的高点，但Wind全A 和Wind全A等权已在周五创下本轮行情以来的新高，同样在二月底创下新高的行业主要为周期行业，且均为本轮行情以 来涨幅位于中段或偏后的行业。 表：一级行业指数本轮牛市以来区间最大涨幅（2024年2月5日至2026年2月27日） | 名称 | 起涨日 | 高点 | 涨幅 | 名称 | 起涨日 | 高点 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电信业务 | 2024-02-05 | 2026-02-02 | 218% | 综合金融 | 2024-07-0 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月01日 2026年02月28日 2026年03月01日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 市场持续震荡，博弈聚焦半导体传媒 价格走势：整体持续震荡，大盘成长回落 本周，标普 500 指数-0.4%（上周+1.1%），纳斯达克综指-1.0%（上周+1.5%）。 风格：大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值+0.1%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-0.6%） ＞大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长-0.8%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-1.8%）。 15 个行业上涨，9 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：家庭与个人用品（+3.3%）、 商业和专业服务（+3.3%）、公用事业（+2.9%）、食品与主要用品零售（+2.9%）、 制药生物科技和生命科学（+2.6%）；下跌的主要有：银行（-5.4%）、半导 体产品与设备（-4.5%）、汽车与汽车零部件（-2.3%）、耐用消费品与服装 （-2.1%）、综合金融（-1.0%）。 资金流向：整体小幅流出，博弈聚焦半导体传媒 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-31.9（亿美元， 下同），上周为+43.9，近 4 周为-244.7，近 13 ...

交投活跃、投资收益好于预期，全年收入续创新高 香港交易所(0388) 香港交易所 2025 年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | | | 张轩铭(分析师) | 021-38038437 | zhangxuanming@gtht.com | S0880526020001 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 415.40 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | | | 本报告导读： 受益于港股交投活跃度维持高位，保证金投资规模增长对冲收益率下降影响，港交 所四季度利润好于预期；港股市场扩容以及自身服务边界拓宽，港股市场 IPO 持续 活跃，提升港交所中长期盈利中枢。 投资要点： | 财 ...

本报告导读： 受益于港股交投活跃度维持高位，保证金投资规模增长对冲收益率下降影响，港交 所四季度利润好于预期；港股市场扩容以及自身服务边界拓宽，港股市场 IPO 持续 活跃，提升港交所中长期盈利中枢。 交投活跃、投资收益好于预期，全年收入续创新高 香港交易所(0388) 香港交易所 2025 年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | | | 张轩铭(分析师) | 021-38038437 | zhangxuanming@gtht.com | S0880526020001 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 415.40 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | | | 投资要点： | 财 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanhua Futures, with a target price of 30.42 yuan based on a 28x PE valuation for 2026E [14][42]. Core Insights - Nanhua Futures' overseas platform, Honghua International, is a key profit source, benefiting from the growing demand for cross-border risk management and overseas derivative trading as Chinese enterprises expand internationally [2][14]. - The company has a strong first-mover advantage in overseas business, supported by its successful Hong Kong IPO, which enhances its capital base to meet the increasing demand from enterprises going abroad [14][31]. - The rapid increase in overseas client margin is driving profit growth, with overseas financial service revenue expected to rise significantly [36][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Stable Equity, Comprehensive Business, and Deepening Profit Structure - Nanhua Futures is a comprehensive futures company with a foundation in futures brokerage, extending into risk management and wealth management, and focusing on overseas financial services for growth [19][21]. - The company has maintained a high concentration of ownership, with the controlling shareholder holding approximately 69.68% of the shares, which supports long-term strategic investments [19][20]. 2. Strong Demand for Overseas Derivatives and Risk Management - The demand for overseas derivatives is driven by the increasing outbound investment from Chinese enterprises, projected to reach approximately 174.4 billion USD in 2025 [25][27]. - The report highlights that as Chinese companies expand internationally, their need for cross-border hedging and risk management tools will continue to grow [25][30]. 3. Clear First-Mover Advantage in Overseas Business - Nanhua Futures has established a comprehensive network of licenses and memberships across major global financial centers, allowing it to effectively serve clients' cross-market hedging and clearing needs [31][33]. - The company has been acquiring relevant licenses since 2007, creating a unique position among domestic futures companies [31][33]. 4. Rapid Growth in Margin Scale Driving Profit - The overseas business has become the core source of profit for Nanhua Futures, with significant contributions from interest income and commissions [36][39]. - The report indicates that the overseas financial service revenue is expected to reach approximately 6.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a substantial portion coming from interest income [36][39]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 14.3 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 18.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.0 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, and 7.3 billion yuan respectively [14][41]. - The expected growth rates for net profit are +8.7%, +33.1%, and +10.4% for the same period [41][44].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4134.02 points, up 0.05%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14283 points, up 0.86% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 21,608 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, 14 sectors saw gains, with electronics, power equipment and new energy, and computers leading the increase, while consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and comprehensive finance experienced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.34%, the S&P 500 down 1.57%, and the Nasdaq down 2.03% [2][4] - Notable declines included Cisco dropping over 12% and Disney falling more than 5%, leading the Dow [2][4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 3%, with Tencent Music dropping over 10% [2][4] News Highlights - U.S. President Trump is expected to visit China in April, with both leaders maintaining communication regarding trade relations [3][11] - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce are launching a "Film+" consumption pilot program to boost the film industry's contribution to economic growth [12][13] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting February 13, 2026, it will impose countervailing duties on imported dairy products from the EU [14] - A research team from Peking University has developed the world's first large-scale quantum communication chip network, achieving significant advancements in quantum key distribution [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Insights - The company has released a performance forecast indicating a significant increase in net profit and a record high in contract liabilities, laying a solid foundation for 2026 performance. The retention of existing customers remains strong, and market trading continues to be active, leading to an optimistic outlook for future performance [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 34.3 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.74%. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 9.01 billion, 13.77 billion, and 15.74 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [10][11]. - The company maintains a target price of 89 HKD, corresponding to a 27x P/E ratio for 2026 [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,306 million RMB in 2024 to 3,430 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 48.74%. The net profit is expected to increase from 272 million RMB in 2024 to 901 million RMB in 2025, marking a growth of 230.76% [4][11]. - The company's contract liabilities reached 1.53 billion RMB, the highest in its history, with approximately 80% expected to be recognized as revenue in the following year, which is anticipated to support the company's performance in 2026 [10][11]. - The company has a strong cash position with cash and cash equivalents projected to increase from 2,209 million RMB in 2024 to 2,813 million RMB in 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Insights - The company has released a performance forecast indicating a significant increase in net profit and a record high in contract liabilities, laying a solid foundation for 2026 performance. The retention of existing customers remains strong, and market trading continues to be active, leading to an optimistic outlook for future performance [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.43 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.74%. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 901 million, 1.377 billion, and 1.574 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [10][11]. - The company has a total order amount of 3.955 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and contract liabilities of 1.53 billion RMB, which is the highest in history. Approximately 80% of contract liabilities are expected to be recognized as revenue in the following year, indicating a strong basis for 2026 performance [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.306 billion RMB in 2024 to 4.705 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 17%, 49%, 21%, and 13% respectively [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 272 million RMB in 2024 to 1.574 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 43%, 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [4][11]. - The company maintains a target price of 89 HKD, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2026 [10].

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.27% to 4065.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.11% to 13906.73 points [8][10] - The convertible bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.05% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 0.36% [15][16] - The bond market saw most yields rise, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 2.08 basis points, while the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields decreased [18][19] Group 2 - The commodity futures market weakened overall, with significant declines in silver prices, which dropped by 9.06%, while gold prices increased by 1.65% [9][28] - The market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with CBOT soybeans rising by 4.75% and corn increasing by 0.58% [9][10] - The overall commodity index experienced a decline of 4.49%, with precious metals leading the drop at 17.11% [27][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 144.90 CNY, compared to the current price of 121.61 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant revenue growth driven by active trading in the capital market, with a notable increase in marketing efforts and the consolidation of Maigao Securities. The financial information services and securities businesses are expected to drive future growth, particularly with the acquisition of Pioneer Fund enhancing wealth management capabilities [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,529 million CNY in 2024 to 4,527 million CNY by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.6% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 104 million CNY in 2024 to 1,380 million CNY in 2028, with a CAGR of 40.8% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.17 CNY in 2024 to 2.26 CNY in 2028 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 4.6% in 2024 to 20.1% in 2028 [4]. Business Performance - The company’s securities business, particularly Maigao Securities, has shown rapid growth, with net commission income increasing by 110% year-on-year to 505 million CNY in 2025. Interest income also rose by 33% to 101 million CNY, while investment income reached 221 million CNY, up 47.3% [13]. - The financial information services and advertising business generated 1,539 million CNY in revenue, marking a 28% year-on-year increase [13]. - The total operating costs are projected to rise to 21,580 million CNY in 2025, primarily due to increased sales and management expenses [13]. Market Dynamics - The active trading environment in the capital market is expected to continue, with the average daily trading volume of stock funds reaching 20,003 billion CNY in 2025, a 64.07% increase year-on-year [13]. - The company aims to strengthen its comprehensive wealth management service platform, responding to the growing demand for wealth management among residents [13].