A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 4 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场呈现震荡走势，市场成交活跃度有所提升。数据显示，本 周日均成交额为 3.06 万亿，环比增长 9.44%。宽基指数方面，市场表现分化，部分 大盘指数如上证 50 和中证 A100 录得正收益，而上证指数、深证成指等则有所回落。 风格指数方面，大盘价值和成长板块表现相对稳健，但中小盘风格指数，包括中证 1000、中证 2000、北证 50 及中小 100 指数，均出现显著下跌。行业板 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 4 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场呈现震荡走势，市场成交活跃度有所提升。数据显示，本 周日均成交额为 3.06 万亿，环比增长 9.44%。宽基指数方面，市场表现分化，部分 大盘指数如上证 50 和中证 A100 录得正收益，而上证指数、深证成指等则有所回落。 风格指数方面，大盘价值和成长板块表现相对稳健，但中小盘风格指数，包括中证 1000、中证 2000、北证 50 及中小 100 指数，均出现显著下跌。行业板 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61 points, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14316.64 points, down 0.85% [1][4][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 9 sectors saw gains, with non-ferrous metals, oil, petrochemicals, and coal leading the increases, while defense, automotive, and comprehensive finance sectors faced significant declines [1][4][7] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 32,806 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][4][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.64%, the S&P 500 up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq up 0.43%. Notably, Cisco rose over 3% and Apple nearly 3%, leading the Dow [2][4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.6%, with Baidu dropping over 3% and Xpeng Motors down over 2% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [3][9] - By 2025, domestic residents are expected to travel 6.522 billion times, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [11] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the establishment of a new strategic partnership between China and Canada is beneficial for global peace and stability [12] Driving Factors - Recent policies aimed at fostering new growth points in service consumption are set to be introduced, including measures to expand inbound consumption and optimize the old-for-new consumption policy for durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [8] - On the same day, 1,604 stocks rose while 3,771 fell, indicating a market in consolidation with a focus on macroeconomic data [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector [5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-bank sector is currently underweight by 3.08 percentage points, despite an increase in holdings during the fourth quarter of 2025. It emphasizes the potential for profit improvement and low valuations in non-bank stocks due to the influx of household funds into the market [3][5]. - The report notes a significant increase in the allocation to the insurance sector, with the proportion rising from 1.03% to 2.13%, while the insurance index saw a substantial increase of 23.42% in the fourth quarter [5][8]. - The report suggests that the brokerage sector has also received increased allocations, with public fund holdings rising from 0.85% to 1.08%, although it remains underweight by 2.30 percentage points [5][8]. Summary by Sections Non-Bank Sector - The non-bank sector remains underweight overall by 3.08 percentage points, with a positive outlook for long-term capital inflows and wealth management opportunities [5][8]. - Specific recommendations include increasing holdings in companies such as Jiufang Zhituo Holdings, Tonghuashun, Guoxin Securities, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing market dynamics [5][8]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's allocation has increased significantly, with a focus on low-valuation stocks as capital continues to flow into the market. The report recommends increasing holdings in China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance [5][8]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector has seen a rise in public fund holdings, with notable increases in individual stocks like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities. The report suggests that the retail business share is likely to improve, making these stocks attractive [5][8]. Financial Technology and Diversified Finance - The report indicates a decrease in the allocation to diversified finance and financial technology sectors, but highlights potential investment opportunities in companies like Lakala and Yuexiu Financial Holdings due to ongoing policy support and technological advancements [5][8].

Group 1 - The meeting between Guangzhou municipal leaders and the representatives of China Merchants Group focused on deepening central-local cooperation and promoting high-quality development [1][2] - Guangzhou is committed to implementing the important speeches and directives from Xi Jinping, aiming to lead in the construction of Chinese-style modernization and contribute to the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] - China Merchants Group is recognized as an important strategic partner for Guangzhou, with plans to expand its business and project layout in the city, particularly in four key sectors: transportation logistics, comprehensive finance, real estate parks, and technological innovation [2] Group 2 - The leadership of Guangzhou expressed gratitude for the long-term support from China Merchants Group and highlighted the city's vibrant market and development potential [1][2] - China Merchants Group plans to leverage its advantages to integrate deeply into Guangzhou's modernization efforts, contributing to the city's economic and social high-quality development [2] - The meeting included discussions on how Guangzhou will continue to provide support and create a better environment for businesses to thrive [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4101.91 points, down 0.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14281.08 points, down 0.18% [1][5] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 30,565 billion, significantly lower than the previous day [1][5] - Among the 30 sectors, 6 sectors saw gains, with electronics, automotive, and machinery leading the increases, while media, comprehensive finance, and consumer services faced the largest declines [1][5] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.17%, S&P 500 down 0.06%, and Nasdaq down 0.06% [2][5] - Micron Technology saw a significant increase of over 7%, while most chip stocks rose, including Broadcom, which increased by over 2% [2][5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with New Macau Entertainment dropping nearly 9% [2][5] News Highlights - Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss measures to boost consumption and ensure the payment of wages to migrant workers [3][12] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed strong opposition to any agreements with sovereign implications signed by countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan [4][14] Industry Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of maintaining market stability and enhancing monitoring and regulation during a recent meeting [10] - The meeting highlighted the need for reforms in the ChiNext and STAR Market to improve refinancing convenience and flexibility [10] - The commercial aerospace sector is seeing progress, with companies like Zhongke Aerospace moving towards IPOs and expanding their service offerings [17][19]

Domestic Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance on January 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4126.09 points, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 14248.6 points. The STAR 50 Index increased by 2.13%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.82%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 39,869 billion yuan, continuing to rise from the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 16 sectors saw gains, with comprehensive finance, computer, and media sectors leading the increases. In contrast, the banking, non-bank financial, and real estate sectors experienced significant declines [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - On January 14, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, the S&P 500 down 0.53%, and the Nasdaq down 1%. Notably, Amazon and Microsoft both fell over 2%, leading the decline in the Dow [2][4] Key News - The Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced the extension of the personal income tax refund policy for residents changing homes until the end of 2027. This policy allows taxpayers who sell their homes and purchase new ones within one year to receive a tax refund on the income tax paid on the sale [3][11] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts, aimed at stabilizing the market and protecting investors' rights [10][12] - In December, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 5.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.4%. The trade surplus was 808.77 billion yuan [13] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units, setting a new historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest automobile market for 17 consecutive years [14]

- The report focuses on the analysis of the industries where Northbound funds have increased their holdings, particularly highlighting sectors such as power and new energy equipment, electronics, and metal materials and mining[1][5][13] - Northbound funds' total holdings in A-shares amounted to approximately 2.59 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025, representing an increase of about 46 billion yuan compared to September 30, 2025[1][5][13] - Relative to the CSI 300 Index, Northbound funds were significantly overweight in the power and new energy equipment sector, with an allocation ratio of approximately 18.0%, compared to 8.6% in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an overweight of about 9.5%[5][15] - The top five primary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were metal materials and mining, electronics, power and new energy equipment, telecommunications, and insurance[6][20] - The top five secondary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were new energy vehicle equipment, basic non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, precious metals, and components and devices[6][25]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline, as the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76 points, down 0.64%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.4 points, down 1.37% [1][9] - Among the 30 sectors, five sectors saw gains, with notable increases in oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while defense, comprehensive finance, and telecommunications faced significant declines [1][9] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 36,988 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.8%, the S&P 500 down 0.19%, and the Nasdaq down 0.1% [2] - Notably, the S&P futures dropped over 7%, and major tech stocks like VISA fell more than 4% [2] Industry News Highlights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms from 2026 to 2028, aiming for over 450 influential platforms and a significant increase in industrial equipment connectivity [3][11] - The Shanghai government released measures to enhance service quality and stimulate consumption, focusing on various economic scenarios such as holiday and nighttime economies [3][12][13] - China successfully launched 18 low-orbit satellites for satellite internet, marking a significant achievement in its space endeavors [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The former Party Secretary and Chairman of Guangxi Financial Investment Group, Meng Kunwei, has been expelled from the Party due to serious violations of discipline and law, including corruption and abuse of power [1][2]. Group 1: Violations and Investigations - Meng Kunwei was investigated for serious violations of discipline and law, including loss of ideals, political opportunism, and violation of the central eight regulations [2]. - He engaged in political patronage, accepted improper benefits, and misused public resources, including the establishment of illegal "small funds" [2]. - His actions led to significant negative impacts on financial risk management and involved substantial financial misconduct, including bribery and embezzlement [2]. Group 2: Background and Career - Meng Kunwei was born in November 1963 and has a graduate degree, starting his career in July 1986 [2]. - He held various positions in the Agricultural Bank of China before becoming the Deputy Director of the Guangxi Rural Credit Cooperative Union in July 2005 [2]. - Meng was involved in the establishment of Guangxi Financial Investment Group in July 2008 and served as its Chairman until January 2020 [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Guangxi Financial Investment Group was established to promote the development of the local financial industry and is a state-owned financial enterprise with a registered capital of 14.1 billion yuan [3]. - The group operates in various sectors, including property insurance, life insurance, financial leasing, asset management, and digital finance [3].