证券研究报告 | 2025年12月16日 金融工程日报 沪指单边下行创近 2 个月新低，智能驾驶概念逆势走强 市场表现：20251216 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中上证 50 指数表 现较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数 表现较好。综合金融、商贸零售、消费者服务、食品饮料、交通运输行业表 现较好，有色金属、通信、电新、传媒、机械行业表现较差。智能 IC 卡、 ETC、加密货币、汽车胎压监测等概念表现较好，福建省国资、黄金精选、 两岸融合、培育钻石、秘塔 AI 搜索等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251216 收盘时有 44 只股票涨停，有 38 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 0.51%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-4.48%。今日封 板率 65%，较前日提升 0%，连板率 23%，较前日提升 2%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251215 两融余额为 25057 亿元，其中融资余额 24886 亿元，融券余额 171 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.9%。 折溢价：20251215 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是 ...

临近年末，跨年行情预期升温。在市场波动之中，聪明钱的流向往往揭示了确定性更高的方向。根据WIND数据显 示，平安好医生已连续7个交易日获得南下资金净流入，港股通持股占比已攀升至23.07%。 聪明资金的坚定布局，其背后是政策、资本与内功改善的合力驱动。这"三重奏"正推动平安好医生的投资逻辑步入一 个难得的共振时刻。 数据来源： WIND ，格隆汇整理 数据截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日收盘 三力共振，重估正当时 一、政策推力，为险资入市打开想象空间 近日，国家金融监督管理总局发布通知，优化保险公司偿付能力监管标准，调低了保险公司投资沪深300指数成分股 的风险因子。此项调整意味着保险资金进行权益投资的资本占用成本下降，实质上释放了更多的入市空间，旨在鼓励 长期资金加大对资本市场的支持力度。 对于平安好医生而言，这一政策是重要的间接但有力的积极信号。其控股股东中国平安作为国内最大的综合金融集团 之一，将直接受益于此项政策，其投资灵活性、资本实力及整体估值预期均有望得到提升。一个更强大的母公司，无 疑将为平安好医生的长期战略推进和生态业务协同，提供更坚实的后盾与更有利的资本环境。 二、资本外力：顶级机构一致 ...

格隆汇12月5日｜今日，中国平安AH股盘中拉升，A股一度涨超6%报62.2元/股；H股亦一度涨超6%报到60.3港元/股。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 大摩还看好金融+医养行业空间：（1）居民财富将保持年均8%增长；（2）"超级老龄化"趋势带来养老刚性需求；（3）中高端医疗服务需求增长。平安在 四个方面有独特优势：（1）综合金融模式，覆盖客户全生命金融理财需求；（2）以客户为中心，深挖客户价值、钱包份额；（3）轻资产医疗养老服务能 力快速建设，未来有望成为第二增长曲线；（4）AI in All，科技赋能效率提升。市场担心的主要风险已经过去：（1）地产风险逐步出清；（2）科技子公 司更加赋能主业；（3）偿付能力风险有限；（4）利差损风险可控。 紧跟中国平安上涨，港股市场平安好医生(1833.HK)拉升涨3%，报14.5港元，领衔互联网医疗服务赛道。消息面上，摩根士丹利将中国平安加入重点关注名 单，仍列为首选。大摩认为，现在更加看好中国平安，相信平安可以抓住居民理财、医疗健康和养老领域的关键增长机会。同时，市场的主要担忧正在逐步 出清，为估值提升铺平道路。 ...

十年博鳌潮海阔，百舸争流共进发。12月2日至5日，2025企业家博鳌论坛系列活动在海南博鳌举办。在 4日举办的主论坛上，来自政府部门、世界500强、中国500强、行业领军企业、高校科研机构及国际组 织的各界嘉宾齐聚一堂，围绕"链接全球，引领未来：'十五五'新机遇"主题，聚焦质量强国、科技创 新、消费升级、全球合作、文化赋能等关键议题深入研讨，为"十五五"时期中国经济高质量发展建言献 策，共绘开放合作与产业升级新蓝图。 政策领航明方向 质量强国筑根基 主论坛上，政府部门领导与行业专家立足国家战略部署，结合行业发展实际，为企业高质量发展建言献 策。 国家市场监督管理总局党组成员、副局长，国家认证认可监督管理委员会主任束为在致辞中表示，"十 五五"时期是夯实基础全面发力的关键时期，要加快建设质量强国，完善中国特色现代企业制度，弘扬 企业家精神。 亚通组织主席、塔斯社社长安德烈·孔德拉绍夫代表亚太通讯社组织致辞，肯定企业家博鳌论坛作为开 放对话平台的重要价值。他表示，亚太地区GDP占全球60%以上和全球贸易约50%，海南自贸港为区域 合作树立了高标准。亚通组织将持续发布客观权威的经济合作信息，助力各国企业相互理解、深 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Q4 style rotation model indicates signals for small-cap and growth stocks, with a focus on sectors such as electric equipment and renewable energy for December [1][2]. Style Rotation Model - The Q4 style rotation model has issued signals favoring small-cap stocks, with a comprehensive score of -1 for the dual-driven rotation strategy as of September 30, 2025 [3]. - The value-growth style rotation model shows a comprehensive score of -3 for the dual-driven rotation strategy, indicating a preference for growth stocks [4]. Industry Rotation Insights - In November, the composite factor strategy yielded an excess return of -0.58%, while the single-factor long strategy had an excess return of -0.83% [4]. - For December, the single-factor long strategy recommends bullish sectors including banking, construction, non-bank financials, and electric equipment and renewable energy. The composite factor strategy suggests bullish sectors such as telecommunications, comprehensive finance, computer technology, electric equipment and renewable energy, and utilities [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a weak sentiment with major indices showing a general decline, particularly in the growth sectors which are adjusting more significantly than value sectors [3][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3878.00 points, down 0.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78% to 12955.25 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.12% to 3036.79 points [3] Stock Market Analysis - The market lacks a clear leading sector, with significant fluctuations observed in the commercial aerospace sector, influenced by recent rocket launch news [6][10] - Defensive sectors and some cyclical stocks are showing resilience against the overall market decline, suggesting a rotation in investment strategies [6][7] Bond Market Insights - The bond futures market is characterized by a clear differentiation in performance across maturities, with long-term bonds underperforming while mid to short-term bonds are stabilizing [10] - The 30-year bond contract saw a decline of 0.26%, while the 10-year bond contract increased by 0.06%, indicating a mixed sentiment in the bond market [10] Commodity Market Trends - Financial commodities are outperforming industrial commodities, with the Nanhua Commodity Index down 0.28% while industrial products are under pressure [10][11] - The industrial product index has decreased by 7.19% since the beginning of the year, reflecting weak demand and a contraction in manufacturing activity [10] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation between technology and dividend stocks to hedge against sector rotation risks [7][12] - Focus on structural opportunities in undervalued defensive sectors and industries aligned with the "15th Five-Year Plan" trends [7][12] Recent Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include dividend stocks for their attractive yields, AI applications driven by major tech advancements, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [12] - The brokerage sector is highlighted due to active trading volumes and potential changes in trading regulations [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.91, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2025 [7][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain high growth in performance due to an increase in the proportion of used car financing, a successful transition to a light asset model driving SaaS business growth, and the application of AI in the automotive industry [3][11]. - The company’s used car financing transactions reached 235,000 in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, with financing amounts totaling CNY 21.2 billion, and used car credit growth of 51.3% to CNY 12.1 billion, increasing its share to 56.9% [11]. - The SaaS business facilitated financing of CNY 11.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 102% year-on-year increase, contributing 53.7% to total financing [11]. - The company is expected to see continued improvement in performance in the second half of 2025, with AI products like "X Call" enhancing efficiency in credit applications and customer management [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 115.99 billion, CNY 129.40 billion, and CNY 144.39 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 17%, 12%, and 12% respectively [11]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are CNY 11.86 billion, CNY 14.59 billion, and CNY 18.16 billion, with growth rates of 46%, 23%, and 24% respectively [11]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 6.55 for 2024, increasing to 15.36 in 2025, and then decreasing to 10.03 by 2027 [11].

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has established a bankruptcy trial mechanism since 2018, which has successfully rescued 126 distressed enterprises, attracted over 158 billion yuan in investment, and resolved over 840 billion yuan in debt, contributing to high-quality economic development in the capital [1][4]. Group 1: Bankruptcy Mechanism and Achievements - The Beijing bankruptcy court has successfully saved 126 distressed enterprises through judicial reorganization, introducing investments exceeding 158 billion yuan and resolving debts over 840 billion yuan [4][5]. - In the past six years, the Beijing bankruptcy court has received 12,603 cases and concluded 11,010 cases, demonstrating its efficiency in handling bankruptcy matters [4][6]. Group 2: Collaborative Mechanisms - The court has implemented a government-court collaborative mechanism to enhance the business environment, addressing issues related to information retrieval, asset disposal, and credit restoration [3][4]. - A total of 45 policy measures have been developed across nine areas to improve the bankruptcy system, with collaboration from 21 departments [3][4]. Group 3: Diverse Rescue Mechanisms - The Beijing court has established various rescue mechanisms, including pre-reorganization and rapid reorganization for small and micro enterprises, successfully adjudicating cases for notable companies like Xinhua Group and Oriental Landscape [4][5]. - The court has also developed a specialized judicial rescue mechanism for small and micro enterprises, introducing the first national "Rapid Reorganization Work Method" [5][6]. Group 4: Comprehensive Judicial Supply Chain - The Beijing bankruptcy court has created a full-chain judicial supply system, providing legal risk prevention guidelines for enterprises at all stages, from startup to termination [6]. - The court has actively engaged in public outreach, including the launch of a WeChat account to disseminate bankruptcy law knowledge and promote bankruptcy protection [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Ping An officially launched the "China Ping An 2025-2027 Hunan Rural Revitalization Plan," committing to support rural revitalization in Hunan through various initiatives, including financial assistance and industry support, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan in agricultural loans and 70 million yuan in industry support over the next three years [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Support and Investment - Over the next three years, China Ping An will provide 10 billion yuan in agricultural loans and 70 million yuan in industry support, along with 16 million yuan for agricultural insurance risk reduction services [6]. - In the past five years, China Ping An has invested over 140 billion yuan to support the county economy in Hunan, with a total of approximately 1.5 billion yuan in consumption assistance, including 1.3 billion yuan for agricultural products from the Eighteen-Dong Village [1][4]. - Ping An Bank has provided approximately 120 billion yuan in credit funds to Hunan Province, with 45.6 billion yuan in inclusive credit [4]. Group 2: Community and Social Support - China Ping An has established 132 party-building co-construction points across 14 cities, 84 counties, 120 townships, and 128 assisted villages in Hunan, donating 4.76 million yuan for party-building support [4]. - The company has invested nearly 4 million yuan in local livelihood assistance, recruited over 700 volunteers for teaching, and upgraded 50 rural health clinics [5]. - Ping An Property & Casualty has donated 800,000 yuan to support the care of left-behind elderly individuals in rural areas [2][5]. Group 3: Agricultural and Industrial Development - The "Ping An Revitalization Insurance" product has been launched, with 26 local specialty agricultural industries receiving 22.461 billion yuan in risk protection from 2022 to 2025 [5]. - The company aims to support the construction of agricultural product brands in Hunan, with a focus on local specialties such as mountain tea oil, committing to purchase 20 million yuan worth of these products [6]. - China Ping An plans to establish 100 grassroots party-building co-construction points in Hunan and conduct 40 financial promotion activities [6][7].