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主动量化周报:关于增量资金的思考-20250817
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 11:17
- The report constructs a "Speculative Capital Activity Indicator" to measure the activity level of speculative funds in the market. This indicator is derived from the rolling 60-day growth of margin financing balances and the activity of speculative traders in the market. The correlation between this indicator and the relative performance of the CSI 2000 index versus the CSI 300 index is 0.94, indicating that speculative funds significantly influence the pricing of small-cap stocks[11] - The "Small-Cap Style Dominance" is supported by the observation that the average market capitalization of stocks dominated by speculative traders has remained within the 30%-50% percentile range since 2018, aligning with the market cap range of the CSI 2000 index. This suggests that speculative funds are primarily concentrated in small-cap stocks[11] - The "Sectoral Dispersion Indicator" measures the internal return dispersion within sectors such as telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics. The rolling 20-day standard deviation of daily returns within these sectors is used as the metric. As of August 15, 2025, the dispersion levels for these sectors are at the 44.4%, 61.8%, and 54.7% percentiles, respectively, indicating no significant concentration of funds in large-cap stocks within these sectors[13] - The "BARRA Style Factor Performance" analysis highlights that short-term momentum factors delivered significant excess returns during the week, while high-beta stocks also maintained positive excess returns. Conversely, long-term reversal and high-volatility factors underperformed. The EP (Earnings-to-Price) value factor showed a weekly return of 0.2%, while the momentum factor achieved a return of 0.3%[24][25]