报告导读： 风格轮动模型方面， Q3 模型均预测准确； Q4 模型发出小盘、成长信号。行 业轮动模型方面， 9 月，复合因子策略持续获得了正超额。 10 月，单因子策略、复合因 子策略推荐配置的多头行业均涵盖计算机、通信、电子行业。 风格轮动模型方面， 2025Q3 ，中证 1000 相对沪深 300 的超额为 1.27% ，国证成长相对国证价值的超额为 30.27% ，小盘、成长风格占优，两模型均 预测正确。 Q4 ，风格轮动模型持续发出小盘、成长信号。 行业轮动模型方面 ， 复合因子策略模型在 9 月仍获得了正超额，月收益率为 3.33% ，相对基 准的超额为 2.43% 。 9 月，单因子策略、复合因子策略推荐配置的多头行业均涵盖计算机、通信、电子行业。 大小盘风格轮动 Q4 配置信号。 根据 2025 年 09 月 30 日的最新数据， 2025Q4 ，双驱轮动策略得出的综合分数为 -1 ，预测信号为小盘。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险 ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced increased volatility with a notable adjustment in the small-cap growth sector, while value stocks outperformed growth stocks [3][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.4% [3] Bond Market - Bond yields saw a slight decline, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.83% and the 30-year yield down by 3 basis points to 2.11% [4] International Market - The U.S. labor market showed weakness with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5][10] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.4%, outperforming A-shares due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued inflow of capital [5] Sector Performance - Notable sectors included power equipment and new energy (up 5.91%), non-ferrous metals (up 2.26%), and pharmaceuticals (up 1.49%), while defense and military (-11.61%) and computers (-6.76%) underperformed [7][9] - The market saw a shift in capital flow, with low-growth sectors like power equipment and new energy performing well due to high-low switching of funds [9] Fund Issuance - A total of 38 public funds were issued last week, accumulating 27.6 billion units, with a noticeable shift towards equity funds [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the market is favoring small-cap and growth styles, with the style rotation model for Q3 2025 confirming this trend [1][2] - In August, the small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks with a monthly excess return of 1.34%, while growth stocks outperformed value stocks with a monthly excess return of 12.76% [1][3] - The industry rotation model showed that in August, two industry combinations achieved absolute returns exceeding 12%, with excess returns above 4% [1][3] Group 2 - The dual-driven rotation strategy for Q3 2025 indicated a signal for small-cap stocks based on the latest data as of June 30, 2025, with a composite score of -3 [2] - The dual-driven rotation strategy for Q3 2025 also indicated a signal for growth stocks, with a composite score of -5 [3] - In August, the composite factor strategy achieved an excess return of 4.38%, while the single-factor multi-strategy achieved an excess return of 4.59% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the current bull - market judgment for the stock market, suggesting investors to pay attention to short - term adjustment opportunities in IF, IM, and IC. For other commodities, it provides specific outlooks and trading suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Options - A - shares continued to rise this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points. The trading volume of the market exceeded 2 trillion for 8 consecutive trading days. For different index options (IO, MO, HO), the trading volume and open interest changed, and implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors should go long on volatility when the target index rises and short on volatility when it falls. August 27th was the last trading day for the August contracts of SSE and SZSE ETF options [2]. Stock Index - The three major stock indexes had three consecutive weekly positive lines. The Shanghai Composite Index was relatively stable in the short - term, while the ChiNext had a relatively high short - term deviation rate and signs of overheating. The market showed a technology - growth and small - cap style advantage. The main channels for residents' funds to enter the market were the continuous increase in margin trading balances, private fund sizes, and active individual investor account openings. The report maintains the bull - market judgment and suggests investors to pay attention to short - term adjustment opportunities in IF, IM, and IC [3]. Aluminum - The market is still speculating on the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation. Due to the release of supply increments and the off - season of consumption, the inventory accumulation expectation is strong. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 80,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton this week, with a futures price of 78,100 - 90,100 yuan/ton. The Friday closing price was 78,960 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 7,940 yuan or 9.14%. If only the Jiaxiaowo mine stops production for several months, overseas lithium mines and salts can make up for the domestic reduction after sufficient logistics time. The supply - demand will gradually return to balance after November. Before that, the shortage will be mainly offset by digesting social inventories. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The weekly raw coal production was 1912,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 4716,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons. The coking coal production was 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons, and the coking coal inventory was 2756,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons. The seventh round of coke price increases was fully implemented. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of the domestic macro - environment, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be firm and fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. Urea - The domestic urea market price dropped significantly over the weekend, with the mainstream factory - gate price around 1680 yuan/ton. The daily production of the urea industry fluctuated around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The inventory of upstream urea enterprises continued to accumulate, and the port inventory increased to 501,000 tons. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises decreased, but there is an expectation of marginal improvement in downstream提货 at the end of the month. The futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The production of rebar decreased while demand increased, and the inventory increase slowed down. The production and demand of hot - rolled coil both increased, and the inventory accumulation expanded slightly. The overall inventory accumulation speed was slow. With the Fed's possible September interest - rate cut and the upcoming SCO Summit, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly next week [4]. Eggs - The national egg spot price fell steadily last week and stabilized over the weekend. After this round of adjustment, due to the support of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the spot price is not expected to decline significantly. The futures market has a large premium over the spot, and the market has been shorting the high - premium contracts [5]. Pigs - The live - pig spot price declined last week. The supply is sufficient while the demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fall in the short term. The futures market showed a divergence in trends, with the near - term contracts reflecting the oversupply situation and the far - term contracts reflecting the expectation of capacity reduction. The market is expected to remain range - bound [5]. Sugar - The domestic sugar spot price was 5940 - 5950 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar price was 16.2 - 16.09 cents/pound. The Brazilian sugar production is in a peak period, but the actual production is lower than expected, so the final output is uncertain. The domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend and fluctuate weakly [5]. Cotton - The cotton spot price was 15,210 - 15,243 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton price decreased by 0.7% week - on - week. The Zhengzhou cotton price decreased by 0.64% week - on - week. The international market lacks upward drivers, and the domestic market is expected to see a stable - to - increasing output as the new cotton listing approaches, which will put pressure on the long - term market. The demand side has shown some improvement, and the cotton market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the support at around 13,900 yuan [6].

Core Insights - The small-cap market continues to show strong performance, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) nearing a historical high of 1.2 billion, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 7247.70% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The current channels for resident capital entering the market include rising financing balances, increasing private fund sizes, and active individual investor account openings, contributing to a positive feedback loop for incremental capital [1] - The market is exhibiting a clear preference for technology growth styles (represented by the Sci-Tech 200 and ChiNext Index) and small-cap styles (represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000), which are expected to continue dominating until other types of external capital enter the market [1]

Group 1 - The small-cap stocks experienced a significant reversal, with the largest CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) hitting a new high for the 42nd time, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 53.80%, outperforming the benchmark index by 20.74% [1] - The total scale of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has grown by 7212.50% this year, reaching approximately 1.2 billion [1] - Current channels for resident capital entering the market include rising financing balances, increasing private fund sizes, and active individual investor account openings, contributing to a positive feedback loop for incremental capital [1] Group 2 - The market is showing a clear preference for technology growth styles (CSI Technology 200, ChiNext Index) and small-cap styles (CSI 1000, CSI 2000), which are expected to continue until other types of external capital enter the market [1]

Market Performance - On August 18, the A-share market saw a strong performance with a trading volume of 2.81 trillion yuan, marking a near 10-year high for the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3740 points during the day, the highest since August 21, 2015, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2606.20 points, the highest since February 2, 2023 [2][3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks led the market rally, with significant gains in the telecommunications, comprehensive, and computer sectors, which rose by 4.46%, 3.43%, and 3.33% respectively [3][4] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with the CSI 1000 Index and CSI 2000 Index rising by 1.69% and 2.14% respectively [2][3] Capital Inflow - As of August 15, the A-share margin trading balance reached 20,626.42 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 20,485.99 billion yuan, both hitting over 10-year highs [1][5] - The net inflow of leveraged funds exceeded 530 billion yuan last week, indicating strong market interest [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present numerous investment opportunities, particularly in technology growth and small-cap styles, with expectations of continued upward movement in the mid-term [1][7][8] - The overall market capitalization of A-shares reached 110.08 trillion yuan, with a rolling P/E ratio of 21.34 times, indicating a strong valuation environment [7][8] Stock Highlights - Notable stocks in the telecommunications sector included Ruijie Networks and Dekeli, both hitting the 20% limit up, while Guangke Technology rose over 18% [4] - The top stocks with significant net inflows included ZTE Corporation and Lioo Co., with inflows of 27.77 billion yuan and 15.11 billion yuan respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with significant increases in trading volume and stock prices, driven by the influx of incremental capital and a favorable market environment [1][6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the A-share market saw a trading volume of 2.81 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and a significant increase of 536.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3,740 points during the day, the highest level since August 21, 2015, closing at 3,728.03 points, which is the highest close since August 20, 2015 [1][2]. - Over 4,000 stocks in the A-share market rose, with more than 120 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][3]. Group 2: Capital Inflow - As of August 15, the A-share margin trading balance reached 20,626.42 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 20,485.99 billion yuan, both hitting the highest levels since June 30, 2015 [4][6]. - The net inflow of leveraged funds exceeded 530 billion yuan last week, indicating strong demand for stocks [3][4]. - On August 18, the net inflow of main funds into the CSI 300 index exceeded 30 billion yuan [1][5]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The technology sector, including communications, comprehensive, and computer industries, led the market gains, with respective increases of 4.46%, 3.43%, and 3.33% [3][6]. - The electronic, defense, and media sectors also saw significant gains, with increases exceeding 2% [3][6]. - The majority of industries experienced an increase in financing balances, with electronics, non-bank financials, and computing sectors leading in net buying amounts [4][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market still has considerable upward potential and investment opportunities in the medium term, supported by strong liquidity and improving fundamentals [6][7]. - The market is expected to continue favoring technology growth and small-cap styles, with a focus on new technologies and growth sectors such as domestic computing, robotics, and solid-state batteries [7].

Group 1: Size Rotation Model - The core viewpoint indicates that A-shares experience a rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks approximately every few years, with small-cap styles dominating in months 2, 3, 5, and 8, while large-cap styles prevail in months 1, 4, and 12 [1] - The size rotation model is tested across six dimensions: macroeconomic factors, valuation, fundamentals, capital flow, sentiment, and volume-price analysis, yielding an annualized excess return of 17.45% during the backtest period from December 2013 to September 2024 compared to benchmarks like CSI 300 and CSI 2000 Equal Weight [1] - The latest quantitative model signal as of the end of July is 0.5, suggesting a continued preference for small-cap stocks, with historical data indicating that small-cap stocks slightly outperform in August, recommending an overweight position in small-cap for that month [1] Group 2: Value-Growth Rotation Model - The core viewpoint highlights that the value-growth rotation in A-shares is frequent and exhibits certain monthly effects, with the monthly model yielding an annualized excess return of 8.8% relative to benchmarks like the National Index Growth and National Index Value Equal Weight [2] - A weekly model constructed from deep learning factors, momentum factors, and crowding factors from a pure volume-price perspective shows an annualized excess return of 7.19% [2] - The latest monthly quantitative model signal as of the end of July is -0.33, indicating a shift towards value style, with historical data suggesting that value stocks tend to outperform in August, recommending an overweight position in value stocks for that month [2]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly ten-year high, standing at 3745.94 points, the highest since August 21, 2015 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index surpassed 11919.57 points, marking a new high since April 19, 2023 [2] - The ChiNext Index exceeded 2633.86 points, achieving a new high since February 15, 2023 [3] - The North Stock 50 Index increased by 6.79%, setting a new historical high [4] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan, a historic milestone [5] Leading Companies - Agricultural Bank of China ranks first in A-share market capitalization with 2.20 trillion yuan, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 2.02 trillion yuan [6] - Other members of the trillion-yuan club include Kweichow Moutai, China Petroleum, CATL, and Bank of China [7] ETF and Index Performance - Since April 9, the ChiNext 50 Index has risen over 48%, while the North Stock 50, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 100 have all increased by over 40% [8] - As of August 18, several ETFs have shown significant gains, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF and Sci-Tech 200 ETF rising over 50% [8] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the current market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, supported by national strategic direction, timely policies, and increased market confidence [9] - The market is expected to undergo a "slow bull" phase, with indices steadily rising and volatility decreasing [10] - There are still low-congestion sectors that can absorb market funds as overheated sectors cool down, leading to a "blooming" market with alternating opportunities across various sectors [11] - Institutional advantages are becoming more apparent as the market continues to warm up, contributing to a positive cycle with the "slow bull" and "healthy bull" [12] - The market is currently characterized by a technology growth style and small-cap style, which is expected to continue until more external funds enter the market [12]