2026年01月05日 市场情绪逐步修复， 价量: 速上升 -量化择时周报 20260104 量化策略 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensv@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denqhu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ○ 市场情绪逐步修复：截至 12 月 31 日，市场情绪指标数值为 1.35，较上周五的 1.1 小幅 增加,情绪得分逐步修复,从情绪角度来看观点看多。从所有分项指标分数之和的变化来 看，本周情绪指数综合得分同样较上周有所提升，市场交易活跃度出现反转回升迹象。 情绪指标逐步修复,价量一致性快速上升：本周价量一致性指标周内快速上升,较前期有 ● 所改善,市场价量匹配程度回升,资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强,情绪端呈现边际回 暖; 科创 50 相对万得全 A 成交占比延续下行趋势, 反映高弹性板块参与度仍偏低, 风险 偏好修复仍显不足; 行业间交易波动率持续下降并下穿布林带上界, 资金在不同行 ...

2026 年 01 月 05 日 市场情绪逐步修复，价量一致性快 速上升 ——量化择时周报 20260104 相关研究 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪逐步修复：截至 12 月 31 日，市场情绪指标数值为 1.35，较上周五的 1.1 小幅 增加，情绪得分逐步修复，从情绪角度来看观点看多。从所有分项指标分数之和的变化来 看，本周情绪指数综合得分同样较上周有所提升，市场交易活跃度出现反转回升迹象。 ⚫ 情绪指标逐步修复，价量一致性快速上升：本周价量一致性指标周内快速上升，较前期有 所改善，市场价量匹配程度回升，资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强，情绪端呈现边际回 暖；科创 50 相对万得全 A 成交占比延续下行趋势，反映高弹性板块参与度仍偏低，风险 偏好修复仍显不足；行业间交易波动率持续下降并下穿布林带上界，资金在不同行业间切 换节奏放缓，跨行业轮动意愿减弱，流动性边际趋缓；行业涨跌趋势性指标维持在布林带 上界附近震荡，行业观点一致性较高，板块 β 效应仍占主导；融资余额占比持续上行并创 ...

上周，成长 50 组合获得最优表现，获得了 3.71%的周收益，相对国证成长的超额为 0.47%。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 罗蕾(分析师) | | | 021-23185653 | | | luolei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040014 | | | 卓 洢萱(分析师) | | | 021-23183938 | | | zhuoyixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040128 | 成长 50 组合占优 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报 （2025.12.22-2025.12.26） | 高频选股因子周报（20251222-20251226） | | --- | | 2025.12.28 | | 低频选股因子周报（2025.12.19-2025.12.26） ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has stabilized at 1.1 as of December 26, indicating a neutral outlook, with signs of improvement in trading activity [7][11][14] - The overall trading volume for the week increased by 11.63% compared to the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 19,651.66 billion RMB, peaking at 21,811.04 billion RMB on December 26 [14][16] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a recovery in risk appetite [25][27] Group 2 - The short-term scores for industries such as computers, real estate, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communications having the highest short-term scores of 88.14 [35][36] - The industry trading volatility has decreased, indicating a slowdown in capital switching between sectors, with liquidity marginally tightening [20][22] - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is positive at 0.16, suggesting that sectors with high congestion, like defense and construction materials, have seen significant gains [39][41] Group 3 - The RSI indicator has shown significant improvement, indicating a reduction in selling pressure and a recovery in upward momentum [28][30] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI continuing to rise, suggesting potential strengthening of these signals [44][45] - The model's findings highlight that high congestion in sectors can lead to strong price movements but also increases the risk of rapid corrections if market expectations change [38][39]

证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 29 日 部分指标震荡修复，市场情绪有望 筑底 ——量化择时周报 20251228 相关研究 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪得分震荡回升：截至 12 月 26 日，市场情绪指标数值为 1.1，较上周五的 1.1 持 平，情绪得分震荡维稳，从情绪角度来看观点偏中性。从所有分项指标的变化来看，本周 情绪指数综合得分周内有所改善，市场交易活跃度出现反转回升迹象。 ⚫ 情绪出现修复改善，指标分化仍存：本周价量一致性指标周内维持震荡走势，周后段出现 明显回升，较前期有所改善，市场价量匹配程度回升，资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强， 情绪端呈现边际回暖；科创 50 相对万得全 A 成交占比延续下行趋势，反映高弹性板块参 与度仍偏低，风险偏好修复仍显不足；行业间交易波动率持续下降并下穿布林带上界，资 金在不同行业间切换节奏放缓，跨行业轮动意愿减弱，流动性边际趋缓；行业涨跌趋势性 指标维持在布林带上界附近震荡，行业观点一致性较 ...

- The report tracks the performance of various stock market indices, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, highlighting their weekly, monthly, and year-to-date performance[1][16][17] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of different stock market styles, such as growth vs. dividend, small-cap vs. large-cap, and micro-cap vs. CSI 800, including their relative crowding and excess net value[2][60][71] - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the valuation and equity-bond cost-effectiveness of A-shares, with specific focus on PE_TTM and ERP metrics for various indices and sectors[3][41][49][51] - The report tracks the performance and crowding of different investment styles, such as momentum vs. reversal, and their relative excess returns[2][60][71] - The report provides insights into the impact of US bond yields on the performance of different stock market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and growth vs. dividend[3][82][84] - The report includes a detailed analysis of the main fund indices, including their absolute and relative returns, and tracks the scale of public funds and their impact on the market[3][88][90][94] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including the performance of various commodity indices in China and the US[3][123][125]

今日早盘，市场震荡分化，全市场近3300只个股上涨，小盘股延续涨势。截至午间收盘，中证2000指数上涨0.9%，创业板中盘200指数上涨0.7%，中证1000 指数上涨0.6%，科创100指数上涨0.4%，中证500指数上涨0.3%。 中证2000指数作为A股市场小微盘成长股的核心标杆，精准聚焦全市场市值尾部的优质中小企业，是宽基指数体系中挖掘 "小而美" 标的、布局细分赛道隐 形冠军的投资工具。从成分股质地来看，中证2000指数的 "专精特新" 属性尤为突出，是推动制造业升级、培育新质生产力的中坚力量。 | 日午盘该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该指数自 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 发布以来 | | 0. 6% | 45. 8倍 | 64. | | | | | 该指数由创业板中市值中等、流动 | 今日午盘该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该排 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 性较好的200只股票组成,反映创 | | | | | 业板市场中盘代表性公司的整体表 现,信息技术行业占比超40% | 0. 7% | 103.8倍 | 2023年1 | ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment score has slightly decreased to 1.1 as of December 21, down from 1.35 the previous week, indicating a neutral outlook despite a recent rebound on Friday [1][6] - The overall sentiment index has shown significant improvement this week, with signs of a rebound in market trading activity [1][6] - The price-volume consistency indicator has improved, suggesting a better correlation between capital attention and stock price increases, although the risk appetite remains insufficient as indicated by the declining proportion of the STAR 50 index's trading volume [1][9] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market decreased by 9.86% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 17,604.84 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in market activity compared to the previous week [1][12] - The short-term scores for industries such as beauty care, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, agriculture, and retail have shown upward trends, with the communication sector having the highest short-term score of 79.66 [1][33] - The correlation between trading congestion and weekly price changes is strong, with high congestion sectors like retail and light manufacturing leading in gains, while sectors with lower congestion such as power equipment and computers lag behind [1][38] Group 3 - The current model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI showing a decline relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting potential weakening of signals [1][42] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high for the phase, indicating increased risk appetite and active capital utilization in the market [1][22] - The main capital inflow has broken through the fluctuation range, reflecting a stronger willingness of institutional funds to enter the market, which supports a bullish momentum [1][28]

2024年"924"行情开始，A股市场小盘风格显著跑赢大盘风格，从区间表现来看，2024年9月20日至今，中证1000成长ETF(562520)累计上涨69.27%，同期 跑赢沪深300指数26个百分点，同时也跑赢中证1000指数6个百分点。 | 2024/09/20-2025/12/05 (293日) | | | | | × | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 年化收益率 | 最大回撤 | | 000300(沪深300) | 42.86% | 1369.76 | 49.71% | 35.57% | -21.04% | | 562520(中证1000成 | 69.27% | 0.514 | 93.80% | 56.69% | -21.17% | | 000852(中证1000) | 62.79% | 2814.30 | 72.35% | 51.55% | -21.34% | 从历史表现来看中证1000成长所跟踪的指数已经连续20年跑赢中证1000指数。进攻、回撤均有不俗表现。 | 年份 | 中证1000成长指数 | 中证 ...

截至收盘，中证500指数下跌0.6%，中证1000指数、科创100指数均下跌0.9%，中证2000指数下跌1.0%，创业板中盘200指数下跌1.7%。 平安证券研报称，当前基本面复苏信号仍有待观察，市场情绪低位回升。短期风格上，12月小盘风格有望占优，成长风格占优趋势仍在，建议关注小 盘、成长风格。 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该 | | --- | --- | --- | | -1.0% | | 2023年 | | | 152. 5倍 | 4 | | 中证500ETF易方达( | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪中证500指数 | | | | | 该指数由全部A股中剔除沪深300指 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该指数自 | | 数成份股及总市值排名前300名的 | | | 发布以来 | | 股票后,总市值排名靠前的500只 | | | | | 股票组成,完整覆盖11个中证一级 | -0. 6% | 32.0倍 | 59. | | 行业 | | | | | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该指数自 | | --- | --- ...