Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices continued to fluctuate within a range, with market volatility increasing at high levels. The focus is on potential breakout scenarios from this range [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes revealed a split among decision-makers, highlighting rising recession risks while inflation pressures remain, creating a "stagflation" dilemma [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut have increased, with CME futures indicating an 84.4% probability of a rate cut by September and a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by 2025 [1] - If inflation remains sticky while interest rates decline, real interest rates (a key factor in gold pricing) will decrease, historically leading to a bull market for gold [1] - The gold market in 2025 is being reshaped by two forces: the unpredictability of Trump's trade policies and the approaching turning point in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Short-term gold price movements will depend on the outcome of tariff disputes and June's non-farm payroll data, while long-term prospects may mirror a structural bull market akin to 2008 if the U.S. economy enters a "low growth + high inflation" trap [1] Market Focus - Attention is on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which will provide insights into future U.S. monetary policy [2] - A recent ruling by the U.S. Trade Court has blocked most of Trump's tariffs, citing overreach, which has eased some market pressures but increased global economic uncertainty [2] - The Trump administration plans to appeal the ruling, leading to cautious investor sentiment as the White House explores legal avenues [2] Daily Financial Market Highlights - Current spot gold is approximately $3,315 per ounce, while spot silver is at $32.25 per ounce [2] - The U.S. dollar index is currently experiencing a fluctuating rebound, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [2] Trend Analysis - The current silver market is characterized by price fluctuations, suggesting a strategy of support for long positions and resistance for short positions [5] - The U.S. dollar index is showing a downward trend, with a focus on the resistance level at 100.00 [5] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary, with support at $32.05 [5] - The MACD indicator shows a downward trend, indicating a need for cautious trading and potential low-risk long and high-risk short positions [5] Trading Strategy - A proposed trading strategy includes entering short positions around $33.50, with a stop loss at $33.90 and a take profit target between $33.00 and $32.80 [5]