【汇金观势·金市日评】 风云变幻金市行，一叶知秋辨多空。趋势为纲行有度，点位如针定输赢。 美指长期下跌趋势，可以继续顺势做空为主。关注压力97和97.3，下方支撑96.4和95.6 全球央行持续购金筑牢底部，地缘风险与避险需求持续升温。美联储降息预期仍在，实际利率下行利好 金价。资金面持续流入，ETF与机构配置热情高涨，多头格局稳固。技术面守住关键支撑，回调空间有 限，上方还有新高潜力。黄金易涨难跌，多头主线不变，继续看涨。 意外关注实时走势分析 明势者知进退，懂势者掌盈亏，更多实时策略、精准点位解读，关注李槿后续更新！ 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 今日黄金高位震荡偏多符合预期，我们日内还是择机上攻为主。上方阻力短期关注5100-5080附近，这 里不破还是震荡，突破多头才能迎来进一步的上攻，看向5220-5300。下方支撑短期关注5000附近上下5 美金，接近不破先多。跌破5000下方调整进一步打开，强支撑在4850-4830附近多。最近两日看似波动 平缓，实则不简单，小心驶得万年船。 ...

黄金价格再度上涨。1月29日，COMEX黄金期货、现货黄金均首次突破5500美元/盎司大关。针对贵金 属价格攀升与市场资金大幅涌入的态势，国内外机构正强化风控管理并加强投资者风险提示。 从5000到5500，接连突破多个整数关口 近期，现货黄金接连突破多个整数关口：1月26日早盘，突破5000美元；1月26日午后，突破5100美元； 1月28日早盘，突破5200美元；1月28日午后，突破5300美元；1月28日尾盘，突破5400美元；1月29日早 盘，突破5500美元。 国际金价的持续上涨，带动了国内实物黄金的持续上涨，部分金饰品牌黄金报价突破1700元/克。1月29 日，周大福金价报1706元/克，较昨日上涨88元/克；老凤祥金价报1713元/克，较昨日上涨93元/克；周 生生报价1708元/克，较昨日上涨94元/克。 岁末年初，传统婚庆等黄金刚需消费也进入旺季。金价的上涨，直接让这部分"刚需"支出大增。在不计 算品牌金店溢价以及工费的基础上，仅以中国黄金基础金价为标准，记者算了一笔账：1月1日，基准金 价974元/克，1月28日上涨到1175.6元/克。若有市民出于婚庆需求购买100克黄金，月初需要9.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international silver prices have surged dramatically since the beginning of 2026, with both New York and London silver prices surpassing $100 per ounce for the first time in history, leading to significant increases in the value of silver products and recycling opportunities [1][12]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - On January 23, 2026, the price of silver reached a record high of $103.341 per ounce in London, marking a daily increase of 7.48% and a year-to-date increase of 44.38% [12]. - The price of silver has nearly tripled over the past two years, with a cumulative increase of approximately 150% in 2025 [12][11]. - The rising silver prices are attributed to factors such as the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, declining real interest rates, and a weakening dollar, which have led to a strong demand for silver as a relatively undervalued asset compared to gold [12]. Group 2: Consumer Experiences and Market Trends - A case study involving a consumer, Ms. Wang, illustrates the unexpected value of silver products; a silver thermos cup she received as a gift is now worth approximately 2000 yuan, while the diamond ring she purchased for 6200 yuan has depreciated to around 700 yuan [1][4][7]. - The jewelry industry has seen a trend where promotional silver products, such as the thermos cup, have gained value significantly compared to traditional luxury items like diamond rings, which are experiencing a decline in market value [11][14]. - The jewelry market is facing challenges, with a notable drop in demand for diamonds; for instance, the U.S. imports of finished diamonds fell by 48% in 2025, and prices for smaller diamonds have decreased significantly due to market saturation and consumer sentiment [14][18].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are entering a new long-term bull market, driven by significant changes in global macroeconomic conditions [1]. Group 1: Underlying Logic Supporting the Bull Market - The decline in real interest rates is the primary driver for gold prices, as expectations of lower yields on cash and U.S. Treasury bonds enhance gold's relative investment appeal [1]. - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold reserves, particularly in emerging markets, to promote de-dollarization and seek safe-haven assets, providing strong support for gold prices [2]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are contributing to a "risk premium" for gold, as its status as a hard currency becomes more critical in times of conflict and instability [2]. Group 2: Silver's Role in the Bull Market - The gold-silver ratio remains historically high, indicating a strong potential for silver to catch up in price, suggesting significant upside potential [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is surging due to its essential role in high-tech manufacturing, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles, which will further drive prices upward [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Precious Metals - Investors are advised to avoid high leverage due to the volatility in the precious metals market, especially with silver [3]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended, including physical gold, gold/silver ETFs, and high-quality gold mining stocks, catering to different risk appetites [4][5][6]. - Implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy is suggested to mitigate risks associated with market timing [7].

金银比创近14年新低 金银比是一项衡量黄金与白银这两种贵金属相对价格强弱的指标。它表示购买一盎司黄金需要多少盎司的白银。数值越高，说明白银相对黄金越"便宜"； 数值越低，则说明白银相对黄金越"贵"。 来源：@中新经纬微博 2026年开年以来，黄金、白银价格持续冲高，截至22日发稿前，现货黄金涨幅约12%，现货白银涨幅约31.52%。 伴随白银强势上涨，近期，金银比一度跌破50，引发了市场广泛关注。何为金银比？这个比值跌破50到底意味着什么？ jwview 金银比是判断白银相对黄金估值高低，以及市场情绪在避险与增长之间切换的重要参考工具。计算公式为：金银比=黄金价格/白银价格（单位：美元/盎 司）。 例如，截至22日发稿前，现货黄金最高报4839.353美元/盎司，现货白银报94.391美元/盎司，金银比约为51.27。 20世纪70年代，布雷顿森林体系（二战后建立的国际货币金融体系）崩溃后，金银价格自由浮动，金银比值开始大幅波动。Wind显示，过去五十年来， 该比值主要在30到100之间宽幅震荡。 Wind数据显示，1980年1月，金银比跌至14，为20世纪以来最低水平之一。这一极低比值出现在全球性贵金属牛市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tariff threats between the US and Europe regarding Greenland have led to significant market turbulence, resulting in a sharp increase in commodity prices, with gold and silver reaching historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Gold and silver have both reached new historical highs, indicating a strong demand for precious metals during turbulent times [1][3]. - Prices of other metals such as copper, platinum, and nickel have also risen, highlighting a trend where investors are turning to metal assets as a safe haven [1][3]. - Copper prices have notably surged, reaching $12,985 per ton, approaching recent historical peaks [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the ongoing escalation of the US-EU tariff conflict may signal a weakening dollar, declining real interest rates, and rising inflation levels [4]. - The situation is viewed as a positive factor for all commodities, according to analysts from Panmure Liberum [2][5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-15 展望：彭博商品指数权重调整的阶段性扰动已消化，金银在流动性宽 松远期预期、顺周期交易与资源安全忧虑共振下，整体维持震荡偏强 格局。黄金中枢有望继续上移，白银高波动状态或延续，需警惕波动 放大背景下的阶段性回撤风险。 多要素共振，⽩银突破90美元关⼝ 降息预期、美联储独⽴性扰动与地缘⻛险共同作⽤，贵⾦属避险主线进⼀ 步强化。⻩⾦维持⾼位震荡、以配置属性为主；⽩银在⾦融属性回归与流 动性偏紧共振下率先放量，价格弹性显著释放，突破90美元关⼝。 重点资讯： 1）据读卖新闻周三报导，日本首相高市早苗正在考虑在下周解散众 议院后，于2月8日进行众议院改选。 2）特朗普威胁要对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%关税。 3）美国12月CPI年率持平于2.7%，核心CPI年率持平于2.6%；当月CPI 月环比0.31%；核心CPI月环比0.24%，低于市场预期（核心预期0. 30%）。 价格逻辑： 黄金：实际利率下行与信用扰动支撑高位运行。美国通胀数据弱于预 期，市场对年内进一步降息的定价持续强化，实际利率下行对无息资 产形成支撑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by speculative funds, with expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy leading to lower real interest rates, thus reducing the holding costs of gold [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 7, 2026, the London spot gold price opened at $4,494.59 per ounce, with a monthly increase exceeding 9% [2]. - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates is notably negative, with current economic indicators suggesting a weakening labor market and declining consumer confidence, which heightens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [3]. - The lack of significant changes in fundamental factors indicates that the recent volatility in gold prices is largely driven by speculative trading rather than institutional investment [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Global central bank demand for gold remains robust, with a net purchase of 45 tons in November 2025, bringing total purchases for the year to 297 tons, primarily driven by emerging market central banks [4]. - The ongoing accumulation of gold reserves by central banks reflects a strategic shift away from reliance on a single reserve currency, enhancing gold's status as a "currency substitute" [4]. Group 3: Silver Market Influence - The silver market has experienced significant upward pressure, contributing to the rise in gold prices, with a notable shortage in silver delivery stocks since October 2025 [4][5]. - Increased speculative trading in the silver market may spill over into the gold market, further driving up gold prices in the short term [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook for gold, projecting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, supported by strong demand from central banks and investors [6]. - The anticipated demand for gold in 2026 is expected to average 585 tons per quarter, with central bank purchases projected at 755 tons, indicating a sustained interest in gold despite potential price corrections [6][7]. - The trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a continued easing cycle likely to support gold investment demand [7].

Core Insights - Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, are experiencing significant price increases, with gold reaching a new historical high of $4,382 per ounce [1] - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6% in November has led the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index is weakening, which reduces the holding costs for gold; global central bank demand for gold remains strong, with demand expected to reach 1,313 tons by Q3 2025, a record high [2] - China's gold reserves increased to 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [2] - The combination of ample liquidity and constrained supply is driving commodity prices to high levels, with strategic value in raw materials becoming increasingly prominent [2] Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term target is set between $4,430 and $4,440, with potential upward movement towards $4,470 to $4,500 or even $4,580 [3] - Silver maintains a long-term bullish outlook, with a core target of $100; however, there is a need to monitor for potential short-term adjustments after recent highs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent unexpected weakness in the US November CPI has led to a rise in US stocks and a decline in the dollar, which theoretically benefits gold. However, gold prices did not immediately strengthen and instead experienced volatility, indicating a complex market reaction [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - High inflation has significantly weakened the purchasing power of fiat currencies, driving demand for gold as an inflation hedge. However, the current rapid decline in inflation has cooled this demand, leading to a pullback in gold prices following the CPI report [2]. - The overall annual inflation rate in the US is currently at 2.7%, providing the Federal Reserve with room to potentially lower interest rates ahead of 2026. While lower interest rates typically suppress the dollar and benefit gold, the extent to which this will limit gold price declines remains to be seen [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the path of least resistance for gold remains upward, and a bullish breakout is not unexpected given that gold prices have been rising throughout the year [3]. - Future price movements will be closely monitored for two potential scenarios: the formation of a double top pattern or a false breakout. As long as gold prices continue to record higher highs and higher lows, the technical outlook for gold will remain optimistic [3].