Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been significant, with a notable drop on October 21, marking the largest single-day percentage decline since August 2020 [1][2]. Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold fell to a low of $4080.87 per ounce, with a peak decline of over 6%, closing down 5.31% at $4124.355 per ounce [1]. - Subsequent days saw mixed movements: October 22 closed down 0.46% at $4097.94, October 23 closed up 0.7% at $4126.49, and October 24 closed down 0.36% at $4111.56 [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts from Standard Chartered noted that the recent sell-off in metal prices was expected as investors moved away from relying on metals as safe assets due to significant price increases throughout the year [2]. - Looking ahead, spot gold is projected to perform strongly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 66.96%, rising from approximately $2624 per ounce at the beginning of the year to a peak of around $4381 per ounce on October 20 [2]. Future Predictions - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting an average price of $5055 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by sustained demand from global investors and central banks [2][3]. - ANZ has raised its 2025 year-end gold price forecast to $4400 per ounce, with expectations of reaching nearly $4600 per ounce by June 2026 [3]. - Goldman Sachs has also increased its 2026 December gold price estimate to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous forecast of $4300 [3].

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on October 23, with an opening price of $4036.99 per ounce, a high of $4154.66, a low of $4023.26, and a closing price of $4141.85 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that the ongoing government shutdown, now in its fourth week, is causing significant disruptions to flights across the country, with delays increasing from 5% to over 50% due to air traffic controller shortages [3] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with core CPI likely reaching 0.3% month-over-month, and both overall and core CPI year-over-year close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% [5] Commodity Analysis - JPMorgan analysts maintained a bullish outlook on gold, predicting an average price of $5055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on sustained investor demand and central bank purchases averaging 566 tons [4] - The analysts highlighted that the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns over stagflation, and risks of currency devaluation create a favorable environment for gold [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump indicated a potential escalation in actions against drug trafficking from Venezuela, suggesting ground operations may be next, which could heighten tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [6] - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that any territorial exchanges with Russia are unacceptable and called for increased pressure on Russia before negotiations can begin [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently showing a short-term upward trend, with the market stabilizing above the 60-day moving average, although there are indications of potential resistance at higher levels [10] - The trading strategy suggests cautious engagement with both long and short positions, reflecting the volatility in the market ahead of the CPI data release [11]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analysts maintain a bullish stance on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on an expected average quarterly investor demand and central bank purchases of 566 tons [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - The forecast for gold prices is underpinned by the assumption of stable investor demand and central bank purchases [1] - The long-term target for gold is set at $6,000 per ounce by 2028, emphasizing the need to view gold trends over multiple years [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market consolidation is viewed as a healthy phenomenon, with recent pullbacks reflecting the market's digestion of rapid price increases since August [1] - Concerns about inflation, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and currency devaluation risks are seen as favorable factors for gold [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Natasha Kaneva, the global head of commodity strategy, expresses high confidence in gold as a key investment as the market enters a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle [1] - Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy, highlights the combination of economic factors contributing to a positive outlook for gold [1]