Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock market is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The ongoing war has put increasing inflation pressure on the US and other economies, and the US needs to solve the energy transportation problem urgently. There are several possible outcomes, which may lead to different market trends. Overall, the stock market may continue to fluctuate, but there is still support below after a significant correction due to the stable recovery of the domestic economy, the continuous decline of the risk - free interest rate, and the shift of residents' wealth allocation to the stock market [1][2] - Key factors to watch include geopolitical trends and inflation expectations [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Stock Market Performance**: Last week, the A - share market continued to adjust, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 3800 points on Monday. In terms of sectors, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and basic chemicals led the gains, while non - banking finance, computer, and agriculture, forestry, and fishery led the losses. In the global market, US stocks declined (Dow Jones down 0.9%, S&P 500 down 2.12%, Nasdaq down 3.23%), European stocks showed mixed performance (UK FTSE 100 up 0.49%, German DAX down 0.35%, French CAC40 up 0.47%), and in the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 was flat and the Hang Seng Index was down 1.29% [1][9] - **Oil Price Impact**: The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict pushed up international oil prices, with Brent crude closing at $112.57 per barrel on Friday, the highest closing price since July 2022. This has increased market concerns about energy supply disruptions, inflation rebounds, and potential tightening of Fed policies [1] 2. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 93/70 points, 74/44 points, 205/246 points, and 246/205 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt an interval approach. The core operating intervals for IF2604, IH2604, IC2604, and IM2604 are 4369 - 4571 points, 2762 - 2889 points, 7395 - 7973 points, and 7429 - 8006 points respectively [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5] 3. Spot Market Review - **Global Index Performance**: Different global stock indices showed mixed performance last week. US indices generally declined, European indices had mixed results, and Asia - Pacific indices also showed different trends [9] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown different degrees of increase. Last week, all major domestic indices declined [11] - **Industry Performance**: In the CSI 300 index, sectors such as materials and public utilities had gains, while information and telecommunications sectors had losses. In the CSI 500 index, public utilities and raw materials sectors had gains, while financial real - estate sectors had losses [13] 4. Stock Index Futures Market Review - **Contract Performance**: Last week, the IH futures contract had the largest decline among the main contracts, and the IC contract had the largest amplitude [18] - **Volume and Position**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [18] - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratio**: The basis of the main stock index futures contracts and the cross - variety ratio showed certain trends [18] 5. Index Valuation Tracking - As of March 20, the P/E (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.61 times, the CSI 300 index was 14.03 times, the SSE 50 index was 11.43 times, the CSI 500 index was 35.36 times, and the CSI 1000 index was 48.11 times [19][21] 6. Market Capital Flow Review - **Financing Balance**: The financing balance of the two markets and the proportion of margin trading balance to the A - share floating market value showed certain trends [21] - **New Fund Share**: The share of newly established equity - biased funds was presented [21] - **Funding Rate and Central Bank Operations**: The funding rate rebounded last week, and the central bank had net injections [22]