Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, suppressing the mid - year Fed rate - cut expectation. The first rate cut this year is postponed to the July FOMC meeting, causing a marginal weakening of market risk appetite and a collective oscillating correction in the precious metals market. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. The core variable lies in the balance between the subsequent inflation rebound risk and the cooling trend of the employment market. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium still have room to rise under the boost of their financial attributes [7]. - The EU's official postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and the simultaneous strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards have led to higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales have been moderately revised down due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial fundamentals of platinum and palladium still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, combined with the implementation of the new vehicle emission policy, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - The US January non - farm payrolls data showed an unexpected increase, but last year's data was also unexpectedly revised down, intensifying market divergence in interpreting the non - farm data. Fed officials still have differences in their recent statements, with some re - emphasizing the risk of inflation rebound. They will continue to follow a data - dependent path [7]. - The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, they have room to rise under financial - attribute support [7]. - The EU's new policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve platinum's medium - to - long - term demand. The "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue due to the supply - demand pattern [7]. - The London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2200 and support at $2000; the London palladium may face resistance at $1800 and support at $1600. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may trade in the range of 460 - 600 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may trade in the range of 400 - 460 yuan/gram [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange oscillated within a range. As of February 13, 2026, the palladium 2606 contract was at 416.80 yuan/gram, up 1.53% week - on - week; the platinum 2606 contract was at 523.80 yuan/gram, up 3.52% week - on - week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of February 3, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 20,207 contracts, down 8.26% month - on - month; the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 2,307 contracts, up 18.77% month - on - month [13][17]. - This week, the basis of the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the NYMEX weakened. As of February 12, 2026, the basis of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, and the palladium contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram; the NYMEX platinum basis was - 22.30 dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 52.50 dollars/ounce, showing a week - on - week weakening [18][20][27]. - This week, the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories both decreased. As of February 12, 2026, the NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369.21 ounces, down 9.76% month - on - month; the palladium inventory was 186,863.10 ounces, down 2.10% month - on - month [28][32]. - Platinum and gold prices showed a strong synchronicity, with platinum price fluctuations being more significant. The gold - platinum ratio declined this week [33]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [39]. - Since 2023, the demand for platinum and palladium in vehicle exhaust catalysts has been declining year by year. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a mild slowdown [45][50]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [55]. - The price differences between the domestic and foreign markets of platinum and palladium have shown a converging trend [59]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield fell nearly 4% [63]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio declined [67].

基本面： 白银图表： ---趋势判断---- 目前白银行情为价格上涨趋势。可以布局支撑多单和压力位空单思路。 1. 白银技术图表显示目前K线支撑位83.15附近 周四（02月05日）白银早盘连续反弹走高，保守回落支撑位多单布局，最新报89.20美元/盎司，基本面：经济数据方面，当日公布的美国1月ADP民间就业 岗位增长仅为22000个，远低于市场预期的48000个，这为美国劳动力市场可能放缓提供了早期信号。然而，更具权威性的美国1月非农就业报告因政府停摆 而推迟至2月11日发布，这一关键数据的缺席使市场处于观望状态，等待更明确的经济政策路径指引。其他贵金属表现分化：现货白银上涨1.3%，至每盎司 86.08美元，尽管较上周创下的历史高点大幅回撤，但年初至今涨幅仍超过20%，显示其波动性显著高于黄金。铂金与钯金也均录得小幅上涨。 美元的走强，背后是美国服务业数据展现出的韧性。供应管理协会（ISM）报告显示，美国1月非制造业PMI持稳于53.8，同时投入成本上升，引发了市场对 服务业通胀可能反弹的担忧。这种经济数据上的微妙变化，暂时为美元提供了支撑，从而对黄金形成"天花板"效应。与此同时，市场内部的技术性调整压力 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, which signifies a potential shift in monetary policy and power dynamics within the financial system [1][3]. - Warsh, previously known as a hawkish figure against inflation, has shifted his stance to support Trump's tariffs and quicker interest rate cuts, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - The market is expected to react positively to the anticipation of earlier rate cuts, which could lead to increased global liquidity, benefiting sectors sensitive to liquidity, particularly technology stocks [4]. Group 2 - The potential for a more accommodating Federal Reserve under Warsh could lead to a weaker dollar, easing pressure on the Chinese yuan and improving the environment for foreign capital inflows [4]. - However, there are risks associated with the loss of credibility in Federal Reserve policies, which could trigger global market volatility, and the possibility of rising inflation due to rapid rate cuts could disrupt global economic stability [4]. - The strategy for investors should focus on core assets that benefit from global liquidity while remaining cautious of market volatility and avoiding blind chasing of high prices [4].

美元指数当日大跌0.95%，收盘96.17，跌破96关口创2022年2月以来新低，为澳元提供被动上行动力。 核心诱因是特朗普表态"不担忧美元走弱"，被市场解读为官方默许美元贬值，虽贝森特补充美国长期奉 行强势美元政策，但市场看空情绪未减，美元走弱与大宗商品涨价形成双重利好。 作为铁矿石、煤炭等核心大宗商品出口国，澳大利亚受益于商品涨价改善贸易条件，推动结汇与外资流 入。当日澳股ASX200指数能源、材料板块分别上涨2.33%、1.35%，铀矿、铜矿个股表现强势，进一步 强化澳元商品货币属性支撑。 1月29日回溯年1月28日(周三)，澳元兑美元上演"冲高回落再企稳"震荡行情。澳大利亚12月通胀数据超 预期反弹催生加息预期，叠加美元指数结构性疲软托底，澳元盘中触及0.7022，创下2023年以来新高， 终以强势格局收尾，开年累计涨幅近4%，跻身G10货币涨幅前三。 当日澳元兑美元开盘报0.7002，早盘受通胀数据公布前的谨慎情绪影响，于0.6990-0.7010窄幅整理。澳 洲统计局披露数据后，澳元快速拉升至0.7022高点，随后因美联储会议纪要前的获利了结盘离场，小幅 回落至0.70整数关口企稳。 截至收盘，澳 ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock warns that the market is significantly underestimating the persistent inflation risks in the US and UK, which will hinder central banks' ability to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - BlackRock Tactical Opportunities Fund has been selling US and UK government bonds since the end of last year due to anticipated persistent inflation pressures [1] - Fund manager Tom Becker has increased short positions in long-dated US Treasuries and UK government bonds, indicating a belief that inflation will remain high [1][2] Group 2: Market Consensus and Divergence - The current market consensus is based on the expectation that prices will eventually decline, allowing for interest rate cuts, with traders pricing in approximately 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year [2] - Becker's short-selling actions highlight a divergence between institutional investors and mainstream market views, suggesting that the market may be overly optimistic about the path of inflation [3] Group 3: Bond Yield Analysis - The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.2%, which is lower than the 4.8% high reached in January, indicating that existing yield levels may not be attractive enough given the current inflation outlook [3] - In the UK, government bond yields have significantly decreased, nearing their lowest levels in over a year, but Becker warns that high wage levels may prevent inflation from returning to the Bank of England's 2% target [6] Group 4: Inflation Challenges - Becker suggests that the challenges of inflation in the UK may not be as resolved as recent rebounds in the market imply, indicating that optimism in the UK bond market may be premature [7]

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic expectation of "persistent inflation decline" is facing severe challenges due to multiple factors, including evolving tariff policies, structural labor market shortages, and significant fiscal deficits, which may lead to a rise in the U.S. inflation rate above 4% this year [1][2][3] Inflation and Economic Factors - The potential rebound in inflation is seen as a significant threat to Bitcoin and other high-volatility risk assets, acting as a "Sword of Damocles" over them [1] - Delayed tariff cost transmission may contribute an additional 50 basis points to the headline inflation rate by mid-2026, despite a previous forecast of a decline to 2.7% in 2025 [3] - The fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 7% of GDP, creating friction between expansionary fiscal policies and tightening monetary demands [3] Monetary Policy Implications - The resilience of inflation will greatly limit the Federal Reserve's ability to act, with market expectations for a 50 to 75 basis point rate cut potentially being overly aggressive [4] - The recent rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.31%, a five-month high, has led to a noticeable pullback in Bitcoin prices, which are fluctuating around the $90,000 mark [4] - Investors are urged to reassess their positions in a potentially prolonged high borrowing cost environment, as policy-driven cost increases are expected to become the core logic of price volatility in the second half of the year [4] Market Outlook - If inflation returns to the predicted 4% range, risk assets may undergo a painful transition from "rate cut trading" to "defensive trading" [4] - The market's appetite for risk assets has significantly decreased in light of the 10-year yield reaching a milestone high [4] - Maintaining prudent risk control and closely monitoring demand-pull inflation pressures from the labor market will be crucial for capital preservation in the coming quarters [4]

Market Overview - U.S. bank stocks experienced a significant decline, with major banks like Bank of America dropping over 4%, marking the largest drop in October, while Wells Fargo fell over 5% [1] - Several popular Chinese concept stocks also saw declines, with Ctrip initially plummeting 18% and closing down 16% in pre-market trading due to an antitrust investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation [1] - Other notable declines included Atour Group and Dingdong Maicai, both down over 4%, while companies like Full Truck Alliance, Lufax, and New Oriental fell around 3% [1] Stock Performance - The current price and performance of various stocks indicate a bearish trend, with Dingdong Maicai at $2.791 (-4.42%), Lufax at $2.595 (-3.89%), and New Oriental at $139.340 (-2.50%) [2] - In contrast, stocks like Huya and Bilibili saw gains of approximately 5%, and Alibaba rose over 2.5% [1] Precious Metals - Silver prices surged, with spot silver surpassing $92 per ounce, marking a 28.6% increase year-to-date [2] - Gold prices also saw a rise, with spot gold reaching $4640 per ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [2][3] Commodities - Nickel futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 7% [3] - Oil prices also saw a rise, with WTI and ICE Brent crude both increasing by over 0.7% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [3] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum nearly 6% [4] - The market saw significant liquidation, with over 130,000 individuals facing liquidation in the past 24 hours [4][6] Economic Indicators - Despite lower-than-expected CPI data, U.S. stocks did not rally, reflecting market concerns over political uncertainty, potential inflation rebound, and high valuation levels in the stock market [8] - The current valuation levels, particularly in tech stocks, are perceived as high, leading investors to lock in profits and shift towards defensive strategies [8]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 1% as of 23:00 [1] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices closed at 49,053.74, 23,439.32, and 6,915.36 respectively, with declines of 0.28%, 1.14%, and 0.69% [2] Technology Sector - The technology sector saw significant losses, particularly in chip stocks, with ARM falling nearly 5% and other major companies like Nvidia and Marvell Technology declining around 2% [2][3] - The "big seven" tech companies in the US all experienced declines [2] Chinese Stocks - Several popular Chinese stocks faced downturns, with Ctrip initially plunging 18% due to an investigation by the market regulator for alleged monopolistic behavior [4] - Other Chinese companies like Dada Group and New Oriental also saw declines of over 3% [4] Precious Metals - Silver prices surged, breaking through $92 per ounce, marking a 28.6% increase year-to-date [5][6] - Gold prices also rose, reaching over $4,640 per ounce, with a 7.32% increase since the beginning of the year [6] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum nearly 6% [8] - Over 130,000 traders faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, indicating high volatility [8][10] Economic Indicators - Despite lower-than-expected CPI data, the US stock market declined, reflecting concerns over political uncertainty, potential inflation rebound, and high valuation levels in the market [12][13] - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the tech sector, are perceived as high, leading investors to lock in profits and shift towards defensive strategies [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices due to geopolitical tensions and political instability in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. military's actions in Syria, involving over 20 aircraft dropping 90 missiles, have escalated tensions in the Middle East, potentially leading to higher oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - The unexpected criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have created uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy, contributing to a decline in the dollar and further driving investors towards gold and silver [1] Group 2 - The price of gold has reached a new high of $4,600 per ounce, driven by market panic and a lack of reliable investment alternatives [1] - The combination of war-related fears and political chaos has ignited a strong fear sentiment in the market, pushing investors to seek refuge in precious metals [1] - The outlook for the current surge in gold prices remains uncertain, with questions about whether the rally can be sustained or if a correction is imminent [1] Group 3 - According to Guangfa Futures, the silver market is experiencing strong upward pressure due to significant long positions being taken through ETFs and physical deliveries, despite tight global inventories [3] - The high prices of silver may suppress demand in the industrial sector, and the potential for a correction exists as trading volumes and market sentiment fluctuate [3] - It is advised to maintain a cautious approach with light positions above $70 in the current high-volatility environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Janet Yellen warns of increasing risks associated with "fiscal dominance" in the U.S. economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised, leading to potential capital flight, currency pressure, and rising long-term interest rates, which could result in the U.S. losing its dollar pricing power and becoming akin to a "banana republic" [1][10] Group 1: Fiscal Dominance Characteristics - Fiscal dominance occurs when fiscal policy overrides traditional boundaries, forcing monetary policy to serve fiscal objectives, which is a dangerous signal for Western economies but less problematic for Eastern models [1][3] - The U.S. is showing clear signs of fiscal dominance, with the government pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate debt burdens, leading to a scenario where monetary policy is subordinated to fiscal needs [3][5] Group 2: Economic Implications of Fiscal Dominance - The formation of fiscal dominance relies on continuous fiscal deficits and debt expansion, which are often pursued without corresponding fiscal consolidation mechanisms, resulting in a growing debt burden [5][10] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, with total debt as a percentage of GDP rising to 100%, and potentially 118% over the next decade, which is a key driver forcing monetary policy to yield [3][5] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation Risks - When central banks are compelled to finance fiscal deficits, it leads to increased money supply, which may mask inflation pressures in the short term but can result in long-term inflation spikes due to excessive money supply [7][8] - Yellen's warnings highlight the risk of rising inflation expectations as the Federal Reserve neglects its core responsibility to control inflation, with the IMF predicting global inflation to remain high at 4.2% in 2026, with the U.S. facing even greater inflation risks due to fiscal stimulus and compromised monetary policy independence [8][10] Group 4: Political Influence on Economic Policy - Fiscal dominance reflects a shift in economic logic driven by political demands, where short-term economic performance and public support take precedence over long-term debt sustainability [9][10] - The current U.S. situation exemplifies this trend, with political interference in monetary policy undermining the professional separation of macroeconomic management and leading to a closed loop of public demand, political action, and policy implementation [9][10]