作为美国金融界的资深"技术型劳模"，做过美联储掌门，又干过财政部部长的耶伦，我们中国网民都习惯称她"耶妈"，不仅是 因为其长相比较和蔼可亲，主要是因为其与伯南克通过"直升机撒钱"式的QE宽松帮助美国渡过了的次贷危机！而这样的实战 派专业学者，对美国经济应是什么样子，美联储和财政部应怎么配合，美元的地位应如何维护等问题，实在是再清楚不过了！ 然而时隔1个多月，耶伦就再度示警，称美国"财政主导"风险日益加剧，在美联储失去独立性的情况下，非理性的低利率很可 能会引发资本外逃、货币承压、长期利率飙升，最终导致美国沦为高负债下，失去美元定价能力的"香蕉共和国"。 由于我前面的文章已经解释过什么是香蕉共和国，因此我在此就不在多加赘述！ 我这里着重解释下什么是财政主导！其本质就是财政政策突破原有边界，主导宏观经济调控方向，使货币政策沦为财政目标的 服务工具，其对西方经济体而言是市场被计划主导的危险信号，不过对于东方经济模型而言，则没有那么多问题！ 我们接下去就看看财政主导的经济对美国有什么影响！ 这个特征是财政主导最典型的特征，在正常的宏观调控框架中，央行通常拥有货币政策独立性，核心目标是维持物价稳定、保 障充分就业。 但 ...

2025年12月30日，美联储一份看似平淡的会议纪要，却意外揭开了市场的"潘多拉魔盒"。 这份纪要显示，美联储内部对12月的降息决定吵翻了天——尽管"大多数"官员支持降息，但"少数"强硬派坚决反对，甚至部分支持降息的人也承认"这个决 定权衡得很微妙"。 矛盾信号让交易员们瞬间清醒，市场用一场全线暴跌回应了这种不确定性。 更令人瞠目的是贵金属市场。 白银在12月30日单日暴涨7.88%，价格直冲76美元，但狂欢仅持续一天，次日便暴跌超7%，铂金、钯金紧随其后上演"高台跳 水"。 这种极速反转的背后，是芝加哥商品交易所（芝商所）一周内两次上调保证金要求，逼得杠杆交易者不得不砍仓求生。 全年涨幅超150%的白银，在 年末最后三天里坐上了"过山车"。 与此同时，美股在2025年收官日遭遇沉重一击。 标普500指数连跌三天，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌幅扩大至1%，蔚来、小鹏、理想等新能源车股集体跌超 5%，科技七巨头多数翻绿。 更戏剧性的是，同一时间，95岁的巴菲特正式将伯克希尔·哈撒韦的CEO权杖交给格雷格·阿贝尔。 他最青睐的"巴菲特指 标"（美股总市值/GDP比率）此时已飙升至221.4%的历史极值，仿佛为这场暴跌提 ...

在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第七期中，齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵 金属市场走势进行了深度解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的 主导力量，白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成支撑，结合海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性 风险。 白银供应短缺或延续 刘旭峰表示，2021年—2025年，全球白银市场已连续5年处于供应短缺状态，缺口分别为2468吨、7762 吨、6240吨、4632吨和3659吨。短缺的主要矛盾源于需求端增长，尽管新冠疫情后全球经济增速放缓影 响了需求扩张，但供需矛盾并未完全解除。 展望2026年，刘旭峰认为，白银需求有望迎来结构性回暖。一方面，投资需求或随市场情绪改善而复 苏；另一方面，人工智能、AI及算力设备等新兴领域的快速发展，将带动连接器、触点等对白银及银 合金镀层的工业需求。此外，政策层面亦为白银基本面提供支撑。2025年11月7日，美国地质勘探局正 式将白银列入关键矿产清单，这一举措预计将进一步扩大2026年白银的供需缺口，强化其商品属性的定 价逻辑。 刘旭峰表示，美元信用体系的长期影响力呈现弱化趋势，全球央行持续的购金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Views - Precious Metals: Mixed U.S. employment data supports expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn supports rising gold prices [3][12] - Industrial Metals: Domestic copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, while aluminum prices are declining [4][14] - New Energy Metals: Carbonate lithium prices are significantly rising, with intense competition at high levels [5][19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices are declining, while tungsten prices increased by 15.3% over the week [5][24] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, reinforcing market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][13] - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI for December fell to 53.0, the lowest since June, indicating weakened economic momentum [3][13] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [3][13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are stabilizing due to unexpected increases in U.S. unemployment rates, which bolster expectations for interest rate cuts [4][15] - The price of copper reached 93,200 CNY/ton, up 27% year-to-date, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [4][17] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term demand from new energy sectors is anticipated to support prices [4][18] New Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium prices have surged, with the price reaching 111,400 CNY/ton as of December 19, reflecting a significant increase from earlier in the year [5][23] - The demand for lithium remains strong, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite some price resistance from downstream buyers [5][20] - Key stocks to consider include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [5][23] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are on a downward trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium decreasing [5][24] - Tungsten prices have seen a notable increase of 15.3% over the week, indicating a strong market response [5][24] - Suggested stocks include Hunan Gold, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in the tungsten and rare earth sectors [5][24]

哈喽大家好，今天老张带大家聊聊要说最近全球金融圈最热闹的事儿，非美联储的操作和即将出炉的11 月非农、CPI数据莫属。 一边是美联储刚祭出"降息+扩表"组合拳，市场直接上演"债强股弱"的分裂戏码；另一边是政府停摆的 后遗症还在发酵，关键经济数据承压，投资者的心跟坐过山车似的七上八下。 市场多空博弈加剧 先说说美联储这波"神仙操作"。本周，美联储如期把政策利率下调25个基点，调到3.5%-3.75%区间，看 似中规中矩，实则内部早就吵翻了天。 9:3的投票结果把分歧摆得明明白白：两位地区联储主席古尔斯比、施密德坚决反对降息，理事米兰却 觉得降得不够，主张直接砍50个基点。 更有意思的是点阵图，6位FOMC成员压根不认可这次降息，还放话说2026年全年就计划降1次，这鹰派 姿态，简直是给市场泼了盆冷水。 这波操作直接让市场炸了锅，全周（12月8日至12月12日）大类资产走势分化得离谱。短端美债利率跟 着宽货币信号跌了3.81个基点，跌到3.522%；现货黄金趁机大涨2.43%，冲到4299美元/盎司，避险资金 跑得比谁都快。 可美股就惨了，甲骨文支出猛增、博通业绩指引拉胯的消息，让大家又想起了AI投资泡沫的阴影， ...

Group 1: Personal Consumption and Living Costs - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, making studying abroad, shopping, and travel cheaper for Chinese families, potentially saving over 10,000 yuan annually for those studying in the U.S. [2] - The appreciation of the yuan results in lower prices for imported consumer goods, such as electronics and luxury items, but may weaken the competitiveness of export goods, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances [2] - The decline in returns on dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar-linked investment products, necessitates adjustments in investment strategies for holders [2] Group 2: Corporate and Macroeconomic Impact - Companies reliant on dollar financing, such as those in technology and real estate, benefit from reduced borrowing costs and alleviated pressure from existing dollar-denominated debt [3] - Export-oriented companies facing rising prices for dollar-denominated goods may experience diminished competitiveness, while firms importing raw materials could face increased cost pressures [4] Group 3: Capital Market Fluctuations - Foreign capital may flow back into emerging markets, with sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy in A-shares benefiting from increased liquidity and valuation improvements [5] - Precious metals like gold and silver are driven up by the weaker dollar, although caution is advised as gold prices are at historical highs [6] Group 4: Policy and Long-term Implications - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. reduces depreciation pressure on the yuan, creating favorable conditions for potential interest rate cuts and reductions in reserve requirements in China, which may lead to lower mortgage rates [7] - Short-term stimulus measures could exacerbate asset bubbles in markets like U.S. stocks and real estate, with risks of market reversals if inflation rebounds or economic conditions weaken [8] - Debt pressures in emerging markets remain unresolved, and rapid capital movements could heighten financial volatility [9] Group 5: Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to reduce holdings in dollar-denominated assets and shift towards high-dividend A-share leaders, gold ETFs, and QDII overseas bond funds [10] - Caution is recommended regarding high-valuation assets, with a preference for industries with stable cash flows, such as utilities and consumer staples [11] - Those needing to exchange for dollars should consider doing so during the depreciation period, but long-term holdings should be approached with caution [12] Group 6: Controversies and Uncertainties - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with a 9:3 vote on December rate cuts, and the pace of rate cuts in 2026 remains uncertain, potentially accelerated by political interventions [13] - The interplay between AI expansion by tech giants, which relies on low interest rates, and the potential for increased unemployment and inflation creates policy dilemmas [13] - The current rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are characterized as "preventive" adjustments, with the core issue being the balance between weak employment and persistent inflation, necessitating attention to potential pauses in rate cuts in January 2026, which will directly influence capital flows and policy space [14]

在10月份降息25个基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔警告称需警惕通胀反弹，并强调12月的降息行动"远非板 上钉钉"。自2021年3月以来，通胀率一直高于美联储2%的目标。 周五(12月5日)亚市午后盘，现货白银快速拉升，站上58美元关口上方，截至发稿，白银价格暂报58.24 美元/盎司，上涨2.01%，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏上涨，路透社调查显示，108位经济学家达成 强烈共识，预测美联储下周将降息25基点，这与FOMC内部的严重分歧形成鲜明对比。 【要闻速递】 根据路透社对100多位经济学家的调查，美联储将在12月9日至10日的政策会议上降息25个基点，以支持 正在降温的劳动力市场。 这一强烈共识与11月的调查结果大致吻合，也与利率期货市场隐含的近85%降息概率相符，但与政策制 定者之间日益加深的分歧形成鲜明对比——他们对这个全球最大经济体下周是否需要进一步的宽松政策 存在争议。 尽管对该决定及未来政策路径存在分歧，但在11月28日至12月4日的路透社调查中，高达82%的绝大多 数(108位经济学家中的89位)仍预测会有25个基点的降息。 调查中值显示，美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标——个人消费支出(PCE)指数，在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by a combination of short-term emotions and long-term trends, has led to a widespread interest in gold investment among the general public, with prices breaking through $4,200 per ounce and predictions reaching as high as $5,000 per ounce [1][2]. Short-term Drivers - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has increased from 50% to nearly 90%, making gold, a non-yielding asset, more attractive as the dollar loses its appeal [2]. - Central banks globally have been aggressively purchasing gold, with over 1,000 tons expected to be bought in 2024, indicating a strategic move to hedge against uncertainty [5]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [5]. Long-term Trends - The underlying logic of gold investment has shifted from merely hedging against inflation and short-term risks to positioning gold as a new anchor for hard currency amid a restructuring global economic landscape [7]. - Major economies are burdened with significant debt, with the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130% and Japan surpassing 250%, leading to a reliance on currency devaluation to manage debt [7]. - Gold's intrinsic value, which does not depend on government promises, makes it a reliable store of value over time, unlike fiat currencies [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold production peaked in 2018, and new discoveries have been declining for five consecutive years, coupled with stricter environmental regulations and rising mining costs, limiting supply growth [9][10]. - Demand for gold is increasing not only for investment purposes but also in technology and industrial applications, reinforcing its value as a scarce resource [10]. Investment Signals - The article highlights three warning signals for potential market corrections: a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions, a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance towards a more hawkish approach, and a surge in retail investor enthusiasm for gold [11][14]. - The current gold investment trend is characterized by a speculative frenzy, with a cautionary note that such enthusiasm may lead to increased volatility and potential downturns [14][21]. Investment Strategies - For average investors, a steady approach such as monthly investments in gold ETFs is recommended to mitigate risks and avoid timing the market [15]. - New investors with low risk tolerance should consider gold ETFs or physical gold bars, balancing liquidity and credit risk [17]. - Aggressive investors interested in gold stocks or futures should limit their exposure to no more than 5% of their total assets due to the high volatility associated with these investments [19].

近期，招银国际发布《中美宏观经济与大类资产配置》报告，深入剖析了2025年中美两国的经济走势、政策方向及大类资产配置建议。 在美国方面，经济呈现短期"滞胀"态势。 2025年GDP增速预计将从2024年的2.8%放缓至1.7%，通胀压力短期内可能反弹，PCE通胀率预计在三季度升至2.8%、四季度达2.9%。 房地产市场延续滞涨格局，高利率环境下购房能力与销量均处于历史低位，大量房主因低利率房贷"锁定"而不愿换房，导致库存紧张。 与此同时，中低收入家庭财务压力加大，消费贷款拖欠率升至历史高位。 企业盈利增速也出现下调，尤其是对贸易战和经济周期敏感的工业、能源、原材料等行业。 在此背景下，美联储预计将在2025年9月至12月降息两次，2026年再降息两次，最终政策利率或降至3.25%-3.5%区间。 然而，由于白宫可能加强对美联储的影响，市场通胀预期不稳，叠加政府债务攀升，国债收益率或仍将居高不下。 美股估值面临压力，经济痛苦指数（通胀+失业）可能反弹，压制股市表现。 短期建议关注医疗、必选消费、通讯服务、材料和工业等板块。 整体来看，美股处于牛市后期，适合长期定投。 大类资产配置上，建议超配大宗商品，标配股票与 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]