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中金:首予禾赛-W “跑赢行业”评价 目标价182.5港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 01:21
Core Viewpoint - Company is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 182.50, based on a P/S valuation method corresponding to 6.0x 2026e P/S [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Company is a global leader in LiDAR solutions, achieving profitability for the first time in Q4 2024, marking a significant milestone as the only publicly listed LiDAR company to do so [2] - Company has maintained the top position in global LiDAR revenue for four consecutive years from 2021 to 2024, leading the market share [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Company has established three major competitive advantages: chip technology, self-built automated production capacity, and extensive customer resources [3] - Company is a leader in chip technology, having developed its fourth-generation chip architecture, which reduces costs and enhances product compactness [3] - Self-built production capacity ensures delivery capability and cost dilution through economies of scale, while the company serves major domestic and international automotive manufacturers and has deep ties with leading Robotaxi companies [3] Group 3: Industry Growth Drivers - The industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by the proliferation of urban NOA functions, the layout of L3, and decreasing LiDAR prices [4] - Company forecasts that the shipment volume of automotive LiDAR in China will exceed 3 million units in 2025 and 10 million units by 2028, with a CAGR of 58% [4] - The robotics sector, including applications like lawnmowers and logistics robots, is expected to become a new growth area, with overseas markets poised for explosive growth [4] Group 4: Valuation and Catalysts - Current valuation for the company's H-shares corresponds to 5.4/4.0 times P/S for 2025/2026, while U.S. shares correspond to 5.5/4.0 times P/S for the same years [4] - The target prices for H-shares and U.S. shares are HKD 182.5 and USD 23.5, respectively, indicating an upside potential of 53% and 52% from current prices, corresponding to a Non-GAAP 35x 2026e P/E [4] - Potential catalysts include the gradual realization of overseas orders and the ramp-up of robotic LiDAR production [4]