李晓丹 实习生 朱嫡 陈菲儿 魏琛琪 董凌含 王明飞 何抒澄/文 10月经济数据显示，宏观经济在供给端和需求端均出现不同程度回调，经济下行压力短期增 加。"稳中求进"总基调不变，下一步政策调整重点是进一步激发内需，同时积极修复工业品价格。 宏观数据显示，2025年10月CPI由-0.3%上升至0.2%；PPI从-2.3%上升至-2.1%；制造业PMI由49.8%上涨至50.0%；新增人民币贷款2200亿元，较上年同期少 增约2800亿元；M2同比增速下降为8.2%。 由《经济观察报》发起的"经济观察报月度观察"，每月发布一次。本次共有11家机构参与月度宏观数据预测。 CPI：增速由负转正，小幅上行 CPI公布值（同比）：0.2% 前值：-0.3% CPI预测值（同比）：0.0% 北京大学国民经济研究中心主任苏剑点评：10月CPI同比增长0.2%，较前月上涨0.5个百分点；环比增长0.2%，较前月上涨0.1个百分点，既有高基数效应影 响又有新增长因素推动，本月CPI增速由负转正，小幅上行。受水果、蔬菜等价格上涨推动，本月食品价格环比增速高于大部分历史同期值；"反内卷"部分 消费工业品供给过剩问题有所缓解，叠加节 ...

Core Insights - The overall trend of China's consumption market is stable, with a retail sales total of 3.88 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, which is 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year [2] - The phenomenon of high savings and low consumption reflects that the internal demand engine has not been fully activated, highlighting issues in the "can consume," "dare to consume," and "easy to consume" dimensions [3][4] - The need for systematic identification and resolution of key bottlenecks to effectively stimulate domestic demand through institutional reforms and the establishment of a fair and smooth long-term mechanism [10] Consumption Market Performance - In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 28.42 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [2] - The retail sales of services grew by 5.2%, while the combined retail of goods and services increased by approximately 5% [2] High Savings and Low Consumption - By mid-2025, household deposits increased by 10.77 trillion yuan to 162.02 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.42%, while the retail sales growth rate was only 5% [3] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth remains below 60%, indicating a significant gap between savings and consumption [3] Key Mechanisms for Stimulating Consumption - The framework of "can consume, dare to consume, easy to consume" is essential for activating internal demand [3] - "Can consume" relates to material basis and actual purchasing power, "dare to consume" pertains to psychological safety and future expectations, and "easy to consume" involves the efficiency of converting willingness into actual behavior [3][4] Recommendations for Enhancing Purchasing Power - Deepening income distribution reform to increase labor remuneration and strengthen the role of taxes and social security in income redistribution [4] - Stabilizing social expectations and reducing precautionary savings through improved macro policy stability and social security systems [4] - Ensuring timely and adequate income for key groups, particularly migrant workers, through various measures [5] Enhancing Consumer Confidence - Increasing investment in public welfare to alleviate burdens in education, healthcare, and elderly care [6] - Strengthening consumer rights protection to address concerns over privacy breaches and misleading advertising [7] Improving Consumption Environment - Promoting institutional openness and facilitating cross-border consumption [8] - Enhancing service quality and creating friendly consumption scenarios through policy guidance and support for new business models [9] Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption Monitoring - Establishing a "consumption facilitation index" to evaluate the consumption environment and continuously optimize policies [9] - Implementing a systematic approach to identify and address common consumption bottlenecks [10]