Group 1: Power Sector - The overall electricity consumption in China increased by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total of 77,675 billion kilowatt-hours [7][19] - The electricity consumption in July and August 2025 exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for two consecutive months, indicating a normalization of high electricity usage [8][10] - The contribution of the secondary industry to electricity consumption growth has decreased to below 50%, with significant increases from the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity usage [19][30] Group 2: Thermal Power - The improvement in capacity electricity prices is expected to enhance the profitability and dividend capacity of thermal power companies [3] - The stable capacity revenue from thermal power effectively hedges against fluctuations in electricity prices, transitioning the profit structure from reliance on electricity sales to a diversified model including capacity and auxiliary service revenues [40][41] - Recommended companies include Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Datang Power, which have a high proportion of large units [3][40] Group 3: Hydropower - The hydropower sector is expected to benefit from improved financial conditions due to reduced capital expenditures and interest expenses during the interest rate decline cycle [56][59] - The depreciation of the Three Gorges hydropower units is expected to peak in 2026, opening up profit space for hydropower companies [52][59] - Recommended companies include Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, and Chuanwei Energy, which are major players in the hydropower sector [56][59] Group 4: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is expected to see growth as the approval of 10 new units in 2025 continues the high growth trend, enhancing the valuation of nuclear power companies [3][41] - Recommended companies include China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, which are positioned to benefit from this growth [3][41] Group 5: Renewable Energy - Wind and solar installations are expected to maintain high growth, with a total installed capacity of 1.7 billion kilowatts by September 2025, aiming for 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035 [41][39] - The introduction of local renewable energy market rules is expected to stabilize the returns of existing projects, enhancing the long-term value for green electricity operators [3][41] - Recommended companies include Xintian Green Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power [3][41] Group 6: Natural Gas - The natural gas sector is entering a cost reduction cycle, with falling oil and gas prices since early 2025, which is expected to improve profitability for urban gas companies [3][41] - The anticipated cold winter due to the La Niña effect is expected to boost gas sales volume growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 [3][41] - Recommended companies include China Resources Gas, Hong Kong and China Gas, and Kunlun Energy, which are quality urban gas enterprises [3][41]

送放心 A H 电力 2025 年 07 月 30 日 版费 行业 表研究报 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 东上调火电容量电价 气电盈表 歌曲目斯 对粤发改价格函〔2025〕1254 号文件的点评 行业点评 表:电力重点公司估值表 | 板块 | 代理 | 筒称 | 14-212 | 2025/7/29 | | Eb2 | | | ЬЕ | | PB | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 收盘价 | 25E | 26E | 27E | 25E | 26E | 27E | | | 火电 | 00836.HK | 华润电力 | 买人 | 19.68 | 2.88 | 3.13 | 3.39 | 7 | 6 | ଚ | 1.03 | | | 6 ...