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中资美元债周报:一级市场发行仍处低位,二级市场小幅上涨-20260302
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-03-02 14:03
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds remained at a low level last week, with only 2 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $365 million. The secondary market showed a slight increase, and US Treasury yields declined across the board. The macro - economic environment is complex, with various events such as geopolitical conflicts, policy changes, and corporate performance fluctuations affecting the market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds was low, with 2 new bonds issued, amounting to about $365 million. Among them, Seazen Group issued a $355 million bond with a coupon rate of 11.8%, which was the largest - scale and highest - priced new bond of the week [1][7]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Index Performance**: The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese US - dollar bond index rose 0.42% week - on - week, and the emerging market US - dollar bond index rose 0.17%. The investment - grade index closed at 205.7648, up 0.45% for the week, and the high - yield index closed at 165.0443, up 0.19% for the week. The Markit iBoxx Chinese US - dollar bond return index rose 0.27% week - on - week, with the investment - grade return index at 247.3125 (up 0.28%) and the high - yield return index at 245.5983 (up 0.24%) [5][8][13]. - **Industry Performance**: The consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains, while the real estate and healthcare sectors led the losses. The consumer staples sector was affected by the rise of names like JUEBAO INVESTMENT LIMITED and H&H International Holdings Limited, with yields down 12.9bps. The consumer discretionary sector was influenced by the rise of Huazhu Group Limited and NIO Inc., with yields down 10.7bps. The real estate sector was affected by the decline of names such as Times China Holdings Limited and Logan Group Company Limited, with yields up 675.7bps. The healthcare sector was affected by the decline of names like Luye Pharma Group Ltd. and MicroPort Scientific Corporation, with yields up 37.5bps [18][23]. - **Rating Performance**: According to Bloomberg's comprehensive ratings, investment - grade names all rose, with the A - grade weekly yield down 1.7bps and the BBB - grade weekly yield down 5.3bps. High - yield names mostly fell, with the BB - grade yield down 3.1bps, the DD+ to NR - grade yield up about 91.1bps, and the unrated names' yield up 153.7bps [20][21][24]. - **Hot Events**: Sunshine City had a total of 65.601 billion yuan in overdue debt principal as of February 26. Fanhai Holding Group Co., Ltd. failed to repay interest - bearing debts on schedule, involving a principal of 34.026 billion yuan [24]. - **Rating Adjustments**: Moody's upgraded CenturyLink's corporate family rating from B2 to B1 due to improved business conditions. Fitch confirmed Lianyungang Port Group's long - term issuer rating as BBB, and Zhongzheng Pengyuan International maintained a stable outlook for Zhangzhou Jingyuan Development Co., Ltd. due to government support [26][28]. 3.3 US Treasury Quotes - The report provides quotes for 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by descending yield to maturity [29]. 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of February 27, the 1 - year US Treasury yield was 3.4746%, down 3.11bps from the previous week; the 2 - year yield was 3.3749%, down 10.32bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.5017%, down 14.5bps; and the 10 - year yield was 3.9375%, down 14.51bps [33]. 3.5 Macro News - **Geopolitical**: The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28, which put the global market on high alert [32]. - **Policy**: The US started to levy a 10% global tariff and is preparing to raise it to 15%. The Fed's Milan expects a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026, while Goolsbee believes no further rate cuts are appropriate until more evidence of sustained inflation decline. Waller may pause rate hikes if February employment data is strong. The US will impose counter -vailing duties on crystalline silicon solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The Bank of England's Bailey expects to cut interest rates soon. The Central Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%. The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% [34][35][36]. - **Economic Data**: Global debt reached a record $348 trillion at the end of last year. IDC predicts a 12.9% year - on - year decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026. NVIDIA's Q4 FY2026 revenue was $68.1 billion, exceeding expectations. South Korea's birth rate rose for the second consecutive year, with the total fertility rate rising to 0.8. The Spring Festival holiday saw 100,000 square meters of new commercial housing signed in 21 key cities, basically the same as last year. Shanghai loosened non - local home - buying restrictions. Chinese brand passenger car sales in January 2026 decreased by 32.1% month - on - month and 8.9% year - on - year [39][43][44]. - **Market Development**: The dim sum bond market has grown for six consecutive years as of the end of 2025, with a surviving scale of about 1.3 trillion yuan [53][54].