【内容摘要】1月8日，资金面平稳偏松；受股市、商品走弱提振，债市有所修复；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍 上行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中共中央政治局常务委员会召开会议】中共中央政治局常务委员会1月8日召开会议，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议并发表重要讲话。会议指出，党中央 听取全国人大常委会、国务院、全国政协、最高人民法院、最高人民检察院党组工作汇报和中央书记处工作报告，是坚持和完善党的领导制度体系，把党中 央集中统一领导落实到国家治理各领域各方面各环节的重要举措。"十五五"时期，我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，工作任务艰巨繁重，要坚持好、运用 好、发展好党的领导这一最大优势，为中国式现代化建设提供根本保证。 二、资金面 （一）公开市场操作 1月8日，央行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，其中，操作利率1.40%，投标量99亿元，中标量99亿元。Wind数据显示，当日无 逆回购到期，因此单日净投放资金99亿元。 【美国上周首申人数微升至20.8万，低于预期21.2万】1月8日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，截 ...

2025年度彭博中国债券承销排行榜 2025年年度彭博中国债券承销排行榜新鲜出炉，为您带来最新的市场趋势追踪。如需获取报告，请 在彭博终端加载 LEAG"报告"标签页 ，您可看到所有彭博全球和中国排行榜及排行标准。 2025年度彭博中国债券承销排行榜榜单亮点 2025年度中国境内债券市场回顾 2025年度，截至12月31日， 境外机构在境内发行的熊猫债规模达到 1839亿元 ，发行规模趋于稳 定，与去年同期相比减少5.62%。 熊猫债2020年至2025年季度发行情况 整体来看， 2 025年度中国境内信用债发行量约为19.08万亿元，发行规模与2024年同期相比，增 长约6.85%。 同时，值得注意的是，3月14日，沪深交易所相继发布公告，开始开展债务重组类置 换业务，这将进一步推动信用债市场的信用风险管理，促进通过市场化、法治化、多元化方式化解 公司债券信用风险，保护投资者合法权益。5月21日，上海交易所发布《关于试点公司债券续发行 和资产支持证券扩募业务有关事项的通知》正式开始试点公司债券续发行相关业务，这将进一步丰 富信用债市场债券发行方式，增强融资灵活性，满足市场主体融资需求，提升存量债券流动性，为 ...

2025 年香港经济表现超预期，全年 GDP 增速有望达 3.2%，连续第三年增长且基本恢复至疫情前水平，前三季度同比增长 3.3%，呈现 "加速上行" 态势，主 要得益于 "物流（G）" 和 "资金流（C）金融项" 的强劲拉动。 从增长动能来看，依据 "HGC 三元流动模型"，资本市场交投活跃推动 "资金流（C）金融项" 拉动 GDP 增长约 1.2 个百分点；美企 "抢进口" 效应及 AI 相关 产品需求带动，"物流（G）" 贡献 1.1 个百分点的增长；"人流（H）" 相关产业正向拉动 0.35 个百分点，但 "资金流（C）地产项" 因建造活动疲弱拖累增长 超 0.3 个百分点。具体而言，2025 年访港旅客量同比增约 12%，零售业自 5 月起恢复正增长；进出口货值同比分别升 13.8%、13.6%，机场客货运量稳步回 升；恒指累计上涨 28.9%，港股 IPO 募资额重回全球榜首，银行保险业景气度提升，但地产市场供需分化，建造业表现疲弱。 展望 2026 年，偏乐观情形下香港 GDP 有望增长 3.0%，"物流（G）" 和 "资金流（C）" 仍将是核心引擎，"人流（H）" 贡献保持稳健。利好因素包括 ...

固定收益报告 在岸市场：节后资金利率明显回落 节日资金需求量较大，人行上周通过逆回购操作净投放短期流动性 7374 亿人民 币。元旦假期后，资金回流银行体系，银行间资金利率明显下行，7 天存款类机 构质押式回购加权利率和 7 天银行间质押式回购加权利率全周分别下行 17 个和 48 个基点至 1.43%和 1.45%。3 年期和 10 年期国债收益率全周分别持平和下行 1 个基点至 1.38%和 1.85%。 固收周报 市场避险情绪未见明显增强 受假期影响，上周中资离岸债新发行冷淡，基本无新发行。美债收益率表现分化， 10 年期和 2 年期美债收益率上周分别上行 6 个和下行 1 个基点至 4.19% 和 3.47% 。 12 月份议息会议纪要显示，大多数与会者认为，若通胀如预期逐步下降，进一步 降息可能是适合的。总的来看，虽然通胀仍高于美联储政策目标，但在缺少进一 步上行趋势背景下，多数美联储官员倾向于降息以支持就业市场。从周一亚洲市 场走势看，上周末的委内瑞拉变局并未明显推升市场避险情绪，石油价格也大体 稳定。在这样的背景下，周一亚洲时段美债收益率变动并不大。彭博巴克莱中资 美元债总回报指数上周基本持平。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds remained at a low level last week due to the New Year's Day holiday, with only 2 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $38 million. The secondary market's high-yield segment outperformed the investment-grade segment. The yields of short - and long - term US Treasuries showed a divergent trend [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - Affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds remained low, with 2 new bonds issued, totaling about $38 million. Chongqing Puli Development issued a senior bond worth 220 million RMB, the largest issuance last week, and Zhangdian State - owned Assets issued a senior unsecured bond worth 48 million RMB with a coupon rate of 6.9%, the highest - priced new bond last week [7][8][10]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) declined 0.04% week - on - week, while the emerging market US dollar bond index rose 0.03%. The investment - grade index of Chinese US dollar bonds closed at 202.6423, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the high - yield index closed at 160.354, up 0.11% week - on - week. The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.03% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index closed at 244.3846, up 0.01% week - on - week, and the high - yield return index closed at 241.6935, up 0.16% week - on - week [11][14]. 2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Performance by Industry - Different industries showed different yield changes. The communication and energy sectors led the rise, with yields down 14.6bps and 5.8bps respectively. The real estate and essential consumer sectors led the decline, with yields up 13.7Mbps and 99.9bps respectively [18][23]. 2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Performance by Different Ratings - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive ratings, investment - grade names generally declined, with the weekly yield of A - rated names up 0.8bps and that of BBB - rated names up 1.9bps. Most high - yield names declined, with the yield of BB - rated names down 4.1bps, the yield of DD+ to NR - rated names up about 12.0bps, and the yield of unrated names up 4.4Mbps [20]. 2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - China Jinmao provided asset collateral for the debt of "23 Jinmao MTN001". Fantasia Group had overdue borrowing principal of 1.4411 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025. Shanghai Shimao Construction had new overdue interest - bearing debts of about 1.85 billion yuan from December 22 to 28, 2025 [24][25][26]. 2.5 Main Rating Adjustments Last Week - Moody's downgraded Vanke's corporate family rating to Ca from Caa2 and maintained a negative outlook. United International rated Quzhou Grand Garden Group A - with a stable outlook. Zhongchengxin Asia - Pacific rated Sanya Urban Transport Group Ag - with a stable outlook [28]. 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The table shows the quotes of 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low, including information such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon [29]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of January 2, the yields of US Treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield was 3.4666%, down 1.24bps from last week; the 2 - year yield was 3.4733%, down 0.57bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.7427%, up 4.69bps; and the 10 - year yield was 4.1907%, up 6.3bps [33]. 5. Macro News - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed serious disagreements. The US initial jobless claims were lower than expected. New US tax measures for some cross - border remittances came into effect. The Bank of Korea will comprehensively revise monetary and liquidity statistics. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes hinted at future interest rate hikes. Turkey implemented a visa - free policy for Chinese ordinary passport holders. China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in December 2025 all entered the expansion zone. China's service trade grew steadily in the first 11 months of 2025. China had a current account surplus of $492.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. The operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to November 2025 increased 1% year - on - year. China's foreign debt scale decreased steadily. The 2026 national subsidy plan was officially released. The decline in China's national commercial housing transaction volume in 2025 narrowed compared to the previous year. The average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities in December 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the average price of second - hand homes decreased. The auto market is expected to have positive growth in January 2026 and face more pressure in February [32][34][40].

【内容摘要】12月30日，资金面有所收敛，跨年资金成本继续上升；债市情绪有所修复，超长债回暖；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各 期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【个人销售未满2年住房增值税将下调至3%】12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人将购买不足2年的住房 对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。 【2026年"两新"政策出炉，"范围、标准、机制"全面优化】12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政 策的通知》，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。据悉，国家已于近日向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消 费品以旧换新资金计划，满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。2026年"两新"政策主要在支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制三方面进行优化。 【财政部：切实抓好地方政府债务监督，有效抓好财政收入、超长期特别国债等 ...

中国工商银行（亚洲）发布的报告显示，2025 年香港经济增长超预期，基本恢复至疫情前水平，2026 年有望延续稳健增长态势，经济转型持续推进。 2025 年香港经济表现亮眼，前三季度 GDP 同比增长 3.3%，全年预计达 3.2%，较 2024 年的 2.5% 进一步提速。基于 "HGC 三元流动模型" 分析，"资金流 （金融项）" 和 "物流" 是核心增长动能，分别拉动 GDP 增长 1.2 和 1.1 个百分点。资本市场活跃度大幅提升，恒指前 11 个月累计上涨 28.9%，港股 IPO 募 资额时隔 6 年重回全球榜首；受美企 "抢进口" 及 AI 相关产品需求带动，香港进出口货值同比分别增长 13.8% 和 13.6%。"人流" 相关产业温和复苏，1-11 月访港旅客达 4500 万人次，零售业自 5 月起恢复正增长，但消费模式转型仍给相关行业带来压力。地产市场呈现分化，住宅租售回暖但建造业疲弱，商业 地产交投回升但租售价格延续下行。 展望 2026 年，偏乐观情形下香港 GDP 有望增长 3.0%，"物流" 和 "资金流" 仍将是核心引擎。"人流" 方面，人才政策优化、文旅盛事加持将推动跨境流动持 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On December 29, overnight funds were abundant, but the contradiction of cross - year stratification still existed. The concern over ultra - long bond supply and cross - year fund fluctuations led to a significant weakening of the bond market. The main indexes of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most convertible bond issues declined. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally decreased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies also generally declined [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The People's Bank of China issued an action plan for digital RMB, and a new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operation mechanism, and ecosystem will be officially launched on January 1, 2026 [4]. - From January to November, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 756257.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1%; the total profit was 37194.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; the payable taxes were 52803 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of the end of November, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2% [4]. - Starting from January 1, 2026, the State Council Tariff Commission will adjust the import tariff rates and tariff items of some commodities, including implementing temporary import tariff rates lower than the most - favored - nation rates for 935 commodities and canceling the temporary import tariff rates of some commodities [5]. - As of the end of November, the net asset value of public funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan, an increase of about 60 billion yuan from the end of October, breaking through the 37 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time and setting a new high for eight consecutive months [6]. - **International News** - The minutes of the December meeting of the Bank of Japan suggested more interest rate hikes as many members thought the real interest rate was still very low. The meeting raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, a 30 - year high. Economists expect another rate hike in about six months, with most believing the terminal rate of this hiking cycle will be 1.25% [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 29, WTI February crude oil futures rose 1.84% to $58.08 per barrel; Brent February crude oil futures rose 2.14% to $61.94 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 4.47% to $4349.20 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices fell 10.81% to $3.943 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On December 29, the central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment of funds on the day was 4150 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 29, the central bank increased the net investment scale. Overnight funds were abundant, but the cross - year stratification contradiction still existed. DR001 decreased by 1.39bp to 1.242%, and DR007 increased by 7.07bp to 1.594%. Other funding rates also showed different changes [12][13]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - The local bond issuance plan announced by Shandong on December 29 triggered concerns about ultra - long bond supply, and combined with cross - year funding fluctuations, the bond market weakened significantly. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 rose 2.25bp to 1.8580%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 rose 3.30bp to 1.9395% [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - One industrial bond, "H0 Zhongnan 02", had a trading price deviation of over 10% on December 29. There were also announcements from many real - estate and other companies regarding bond repayment, resumption of trading, debt restructuring, etc. [18][19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - On December 29, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and adjusted. The main convertible bond indexes closed down collectively, and most convertible bond issues declined. Shenyu Convertible Bonds will be listed on December 30 [20][21]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market**: Yields of U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally decreased on December 29. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1bp to 3.45%, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 2bp to 4.12%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 67bp; the 5/30 - year yield spread remained unchanged at 113bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate decreased by 1bp to 2.22% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: Yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased on December 29. The 10 - year German government bond yield decreased by 3bp to 2.83%, and those of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK also decreased [25][26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The report shows the daily price changes of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on December 29, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of different bonds [27].

二级速览： 中资美元债二级市场涨跌不一，截至12月26日，Markit iBoxx中资美元债综合指数周度上行0.06%，报251.26；投资级美元债指数周度上涨0.08%， 报244.35；高收益美元债指数周度下跌0.14%，报 241.3。地产美元债指数周度涨0.12%，报178.37；城投美元债指数周度下跌0.01%，报153.9；金融 美元债指数周度下跌0.06%，报290.9。 基准利差： 截至12月26日，中美10年期基准国债利差缩小至229.47bp，较前一周缩小2.13bp。 评级异动： 近两周市场情况 一级市场： 据新华财经统计，近两周（12月15日至12月26日）共发行12笔中资离岸债券，其中包括6笔离岸人民币债券和6笔美元债券，发行规模分别为430.58 亿元人民币和2.96亿美元。近两周发行方式为直接发行的债券共9只，担保发行2只，"直接发行+担保"的1只。 在离岸人民币债券领域，近两周人民币债券单笔发行最大规模为10.5亿元人民币，由南安市发展投资集团有限公司发行。近两周人民币债券发行最 高票息为6.9%，由淄博高新国有资本投资有限公司发行。 在中资美元债券市场，近两周美元债券单笔最大 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].