报告导读： 上周全球债市在政策不确定与流动性收紧双压下收益率全面下行，恐慌情绪升 温。市场或已进入 " 高利率 + 流动性再定价 " 阶段，策略上强调以 中久期美债为主、配 置高评级资产、强化流动性管理 ，以把握政策转折窗口并避免信用尾部风险。 当前应以中久期持仓、精选高评级信用、兼顾流动性管理为核心。 建议以 5-7 年期美债为组合核心，规避短端流动性波动和长端财政风险。优选 A+ 及以上 评级中资美元债、 AAA 级点心债和美国投资级公司债，严控 BBB 及以下敞口。适度配置 1-3 年期优质央企点心债和政策性金融债，保持适度流动性储备应 对年末季节性扰动。 风险提示：市场波动超预期，海外债券市场系统性风险。 报告来源 上周全球债市聚焦美联储政策信号、欧洲财政风险与亚洲主权债发行。 美 国 10 月 CPI 报告取消发布增加政策不确定性，纽约联储主席鸽派表态提振降息预 期。欧洲央行警告银行面临高风险冲击，拉加德强调货币政策无法解决债务问题，德法债务率持续上升。日本批准 21.3 万亿日元刺激计划，中国卢森堡发债 40 亿欧元认购倍数达 25 倍。 全球主要国债收益率普遍大幅下行，美债 10 年期下降 8. ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve shows internal divisions ahead of the December meeting, with various regional Fed presidents expressing differing views on whether to continue cutting rates amid high inflation and a cooling labor market [2] - Boston Fed President Collins believes maintaining current rates is appropriate due to persistent high inflation, while acknowledging a slow cooling in the labor market [2] - Dallas Fed President Logan shares a similar cautious stance, stating she would find it difficult to support a rate cut in December without clear evidence of faster inflation decline or a more rapid labor market cooling [2] Group 2 - New York Fed President Williams indicates a more dovish outlook, suggesting there is room for further rate cuts given the increasing downside risks in the labor market and easing inflationary pressures [2] - Following Williams' remarks, financial markets reacted swiftly, with futures indicating a rise in bets for a December rate cut from approximately 45% to 65% [2] - The market interprets Williams' comments as a significant signal for the increased likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [2] Group 3 - On November 24, the People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 338.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.40% [12] - The operation resulted in a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan, as 283 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured on the same day [12]

久期财经讯，11月17日，据悉，债券交易员正屏息以待即将密集发布的数据，这些数据将强化市场对美联储后续降息节奏的预期。今年以来，在降息预期的 推动下，美国国债价格已创下2020年以来最大涨幅。 随着美国政府停摆正式结束，各机构将集中补发自10月初积压的关键经济报告，其中包括定于本周四(11月20日)出炉的9月份就业数据。 此前政府停摆期间官方数据的缺失令经济走势难以研判，不过私人部门数据——如薪资公司ADP的持续疲软表现——已促使美联储在9月和10月两次下调基 准利率，结束了此前长达九个月的"按兵不动"立场。 但官方数据存在超预期风险：一方面，数据或将显示企业新增岗位速度远超预期;另一方面，政府停摆也可能导致数据失真或不完整。鉴于政策制定者仍对 通胀高企保持警惕，若数据表现强劲，这可能导致他们在12月10日会议上选择维持利率不变，或打压市场对2026年的降息预期。 热点消息 每日发行总结 每日评级总结 今日，共6家公司评级获机构更新： 数据来源：久期财经 今日，一级市场，共1家潜在发行，共3家公司发行： 数据来源：久期财经 华夏幸福(600340.SH)发布公告，债权人龙成建设申请对公司进行预重整，公司已收到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report explores investment opportunities in the Hong Kong bond market under the expansion of the "Southbound Connect." It analyzes the market conditions of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds and Dim Sum bonds, and points out potential investment opportunities based on factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and credit risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Bond "Southbound Connect" Introduction - Launched on September 24, 2021, it allows domestic investors to invest in bonds traded in the Hong Kong bond market through a connected mechanism [9]. - Initially, it only supported spot bond trading and later gradually introduced repo trading. In 2025, measures were announced to expand trading currencies and extend trading hours [10]. - Regulatory authorities have defined the current participants and trading counterparties. The scope of participants is expected to expand to include non-bank institutions such as securities firms, insurance companies, and asset management companies [11]. II. "Southbound Connect" Investment Target Situation Hong Kong Bond Market Situation - The Hong Kong bond market consists of three main segments: Hong Kong dollar, offshore RMB, and G3 currency markets. As of the end of 2024, the outstanding amounts of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds were 195.5 billion, 173.2 billion, and 565.6 billion US dollars respectively, with G3 currency bonds dominating the market [24]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total size of the Hong Kong bond market showed a significant upward trend, reaching HK$2.83 trillion in 2024. The Exchange Fund and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government are the cornerstones of the market, and overseas issuers and local statutory bodies have also contributed to its growth [26]. Hong Kong Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bond Market Status - Affected by factors such as the US dollar interest rate hike, rising overseas financing costs, and changes in the credit environment, the issuance volume of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong has declined significantly since 2022, with negative net financing in the past three years [32]. - As of October 30, 2025, the outstanding amount of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 361.5 billion US dollars, with 1,180 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance and energy, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly over 3 years [37][40]. Dim Sum Bond Market Status - The issuance volume and net financing of Dim Sum bonds have increased significantly since 2022, reflecting the promotion of RMB internationalization and the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" [43]. - As of October 29, 2025, the outstanding amount of Dim Sum bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 1.5666 trillion RMB, with 1,266 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance, real estate, and consumption, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly between 1 - 3 years [48][50]. III. Investment Opportunities in Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is US Treasury bonds. In the first three quarters of 2025, US Treasury bond yields fluctuated and declined in the third quarter. It is expected to remain volatile at a low level in the future [55]. - Investment-grade Chinese dollar-denominated bonds have declined with US Treasury bonds this year, and the spread has narrowed to a low level since 2024. High-yield bonds have fluctuated, and the spread is at a high percentile [57]. - Due to the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the spread of overseas Chinese dollar-denominated urban investment bonds has significantly compressed since mid-2024 [59]. - The spread of real estate Chinese dollar-denominated bonds has shown significant differentiation. The spread of investment-grade bonds has continued to compress, while that of non-investment-grade bonds has fluctuated at a high level [63]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar has depreciated against the RMB in 2025, and the narrowing of the discount has reduced the exchange rate hedging cost, increasing the allocation value of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds [66]. - From a credit perspective, the number of defaults or extensions of local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises has decreased, and the investment strategy can focus on bonds of central and state-owned enterprises with large onshore-offshore spreads [67]. IV. Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Dim Sum bonds is offshore RMB sovereign bonds. This year, Dim Sum bonds have outperformed onshore bonds, and the spread has narrowed to about 50bp [69]. - On the supply side, due to the financing cost advantage and policy support, the issuance of Dim Sum bonds has increased in recent years, and the product structure is expected to become more diverse [71]. - On the demand side, the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" has broadened cross-border investment channels, and the strong demand of domestic institutions for overseas investment is beneficial to the secondary market performance of Dim Sum bonds. Some Dim Sum bonds still have relatively high spreads compared to onshore bonds, offering good value [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - US stocks - Overweight [33] - European stocks - Equal-weight [35] - Chinese A-shares - Equal-weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Equal-weight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal-weight [38] - Indian stocks - Equal-weight [39] 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, the global stock market generally rose, mainly driven by the AI technology boom. The Japanese stock market led the world, with the Nikkei 225 index soaring 16.64% in a single month. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks both corrected to some extent [32]. - The US economy shows mixed signals. The labor market's prosperity is declining, but inflation is under control. The Fed cut interest rates in October and is expected to cut again in December. The US stock market is expected to benefit from the end of the government shutdown, strong Q3 earnings, and AI development [9][11][35]. - The Chinese economy also presents a mixed picture. Consumption growth has slowed, but exports and imports have increased significantly. Industrial production remains resilient, but the real estate market is accelerating its decline [21][24]. - In the bond market, the yields of US, UK, and Chinese government bonds have changed, influenced by factors such as trade disputes, inflation, and central bank policies [58]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index strengthened in October, the Japanese yen depreciated unilaterally, and the Chinese yuan remained stable against the US dollar but appreciated against a basket of other currencies [62]. - In the commodity market, gold prices fluctuated, oil prices were weak, and copper prices reached a new high for the year [65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market 3.1.1 Global Stock Market Performance in October - The global stock market generally rose, with the Japanese stock market leading at 16.64% growth. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks corrected [32]. 3.1.2 US Stock Market - In October, the three major US stock indexes all had positive monthly returns. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, strong corporate earnings, and the strength of AI-driven technology stocks dominated market sentiment [35]. 3.1.3 European Stock Market - In October, European stocks showed a mild rebound, ending two months of sideways adjustment, supported by energy stocks, tech stocks' performance, and the ECB's loose policy [35]. 3.1.4 Chinese A-share and Hong Kong Stock Markets - A-shares were highly differentiated in October. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high, while the STAR 50 Index fell. Hong Kong stocks were under pressure, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index [36][37]. 3.1.5 Japanese and Indian Stock Markets - The Japanese stock market reached a new high in October. However, due to the potential for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates and the full release of positive factors, the rating was downgraded from overweight to equal-weight. The Indian stock market rebounded strongly, and the rating was upgraded from underweight to equal-weight [38][39]. 3.2 Bond Market 3.2.1 Primary Market of Chinese Offshore Bonds - In October, 46 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese offshore bonds, including 26 US dollar bonds worth $5.52 billion and 20 offshore RMB bonds worth 30.09 billion RMB. Issuance volumes decreased significantly compared to September, but are expected to recover in November and December [45]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market of Chinese Offshore Bonds - As of October 31, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment-grade bond index rose 0.64%, and the high-yield bond index rose 0.17%. The real estate bond index fell 0.06%, the urban investment bond index rose 0.51%, and the financial bond index rose 0.36% [48][50]. 3.2.3 Global Bond Market Performance in October - In October, the performance of major global bond markets varied. The US bond market was influenced by "risk aversion," the UK bond market was affected by inflation and interest rate cut expectations, and the Chinese bond market was volatile [58]. 3.3 Foreign Exchange Market - In October, the US dollar index rose 2.08%. The Japanese yen depreciated unilaterally, and the Chinese yuan remained stable against the US dollar but appreciated against a basket of other currencies [61][62]. 3.4 Commodity Market - In October, gold prices showed a "high and then low" trend, oil prices were weak, and copper prices reached a new high for the year [65]. 3.5 Fund Selection - The report selected various types of funds, including money market funds, investment-grade short-term bond funds, investment-grade bond funds, US stock funds, Chinese stock funds, German funds, and Japanese funds, and provided their performance data [67].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **offshore bond market**, specifically focusing on **Chinese dollar bonds** and **dim sum bonds**. The former is denominated in USD, while the latter is denominated in offshore RMB and is primarily issued in Hong Kong [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The offshore bond market has seen a contraction since 2021 due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and real estate risks. However, a rebound in issuance is expected in 2024 with anticipated rate cuts, although net financing remains negative [1][12]. - **Dim Sum Bonds Growth**: The dim sum bond market has been expanding, benefiting from the advantages of RMB financing and the Southbound Trading initiative, with a notable increase in the proportion of municipal investment bonds [1][12][13]. - **Pricing Factors**: The pricing of Chinese dollar bonds is influenced by historical returns, yield spreads, and credit ratings. High-yield bonds exhibit significant volatility and are closely tied to credit risk. Dim sum bonds are priced based on offshore RMB government bond rates, affected by liquidity in both onshore and offshore RMB markets [1][14][15]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Strategies**: Various investment strategies are discussed, including curve trading, event-driven trading, and swing trading, each with its own advantages and requiring market environment adjustments [2][23][24][25]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory framework for offshore bond issuance is relatively lenient, with different disclosure requirements based on the type of issuance (e.g., SEC 144A, Reg S). Most Chinese issuers prefer Reg S due to lower compliance costs [5][8][18]. - **Default Resolution**: Common default resolution strategies include bond swaps, debt-to-equity conversions, bankruptcy liquidation/restructuring, and discounted buybacks/extensions. The effectiveness of these strategies largely depends on the underlying company's value performance [27][28]. Market Characteristics - **Issuance Structures**: The most common issuance structure in both markets is direct issuance, followed by guaranteed structures and maintenance agreements. The Chinese dollar bond market has a higher proportion of guaranteed structures compared to the dim sum market [7][12]. - **Investor Behavior**: Investors are increasingly focused on short-term liquidity rather than long-term value, reflecting a shift in risk appetite and market conditions [2][28]. Conclusion - The offshore bond market, particularly Chinese dollar and dim sum bonds, is influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulatory environments, and investor behavior. The anticipated changes in interest rates and market dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping future investment opportunities and risks in this sector [1][12][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential bond-buying is aimed at technical management of bank reserves rather than a broad monetary easing strategy [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet, leading to tightening market liquidity, particularly since October, prompting institutions to frequently use repurchase agreements [3]. - The Federal Reserve's asset size has decreased by $2.2 trillion since June 2022, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to 21%, making it reasonable to halt the balance sheet reduction [5]. - The Federal Reserve's goal is to maintain smooth market operations by intervening before reserves reach critical levels, thereby reducing the likelihood of liquidity crises [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The bond-buying may not immediately lead to a rebound in yields but could prevent further declines, reflecting a cautious external environment [5]. - There is a risk that market participants may misinterpret the Federal Reserve's bond purchases as a signal of a new easing cycle, which could lead to premature capital flow changes [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve aims to avoid miscommunication similar to the European Central Bank's experience, where reinvestment actions were misinterpreted as easing, causing increased volatility [8]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The strategy of providing liquidity in advance reflects the Federal Reserve's emphasis on the resilience of the financial system, which is crucial for preventing economic downturns [16]. - However, prolonged high reserve levels may lead to market dependency on central bank liquidity, potentially undermining risk pricing capabilities [16]. - The Federal Reserve's bond-buying serves as a technical measure that highlights the importance of liquidity management in influencing market sentiment and expectations [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may soon consider expanding its securities holdings to maintain sufficient reserves in the banking system, indicating a shift towards a new phase of liquidity support after two years of balance sheet reduction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, stated that the potential bond purchases would be a natural step in executing a strategy for sufficient reserves, not a change in policy stance [3]. - Since the initiation of balance sheet reduction in June 2022, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased by $2.2 trillion, reducing its GDP ratio from a peak of 35% to approximately 21%, making the timing for halting the reduction more appropriate [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - Financial institutions have increasingly utilized repurchase agreement facilities to address short-term funding pressures since October [1]. - The Markit iBoxx index for Chinese dollar bonds showed a 0.1% decline in returns as of October 31, with investment-grade bond returns also down by 0.1%, while high-yield bond returns remained unchanged [1].

Group 1: Employment Data and Federal Reserve Actions - The October employment data from the U.S. private sector showed a surprising increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly better than the expected 30,000 jobs, while the previous month's data was revised down by 29,000 jobs [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan emphasized that current interest rates are still high and suggested that rates may need to be lowered further, despite the recent job growth being limited and wage growth slowing down [2][2] - Milan has consistently called for further rate cuts, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction instead of the 25 basis points implemented in September and October [2] Group 2: Corporate Debt Restructuring - Country Garden announced it has received the necessary support from a statutory majority of plan creditors for its offshore debt restructuring, with a court hearing scheduled for December 4, 2025 [3] - Sunac China sought the High Court's approval for its plan, which was granted on November 5, 2025, with all conditions met for the plan to take effect on the same date [3] - Maosheng Investment initiated a consent solicitation for a specific bond, aiming to modify the bond's maturity date, redemption terms, and default waiver provisions [3] Group 3: Market Movements - As of November 5, the yield on China's two-year government bonds was 1.43%, while the ten-year yield was 1.80% [6] - In the U.S., the two-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.63%, and the ten-year yield increased by 7 basis points to 4.17% [6] Group 4: Rating Changes - Vanke Enterprises' long-term issuer credit rating was downgraded from "B-" to "CCC" with a negative outlook [5] - China Cinda (2020) I Management Ltd. received a long-term issuer rating of "BBB+" for its proposed issuance of senior unsecured notes [5]

Macro Overview - The core viewpoint is that China's economy has significant growth potential in the medium to long term, with a stable macroeconomic total in 2025 but noticeable structural differentiation, requiring policy solutions for weak domestic demand in 2026 [2] - Price stability is crucial for growth, as price indicators are central to understanding changes in domestic demand [2] Investment Strategy - The "transformation bull market" in China is expected to continue, with the stock market entering a significant growth cycle starting in 2025, driven by capital market reforms and economic structural transformation [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points again is a significant milestone, with further upward potential anticipated [8] - The underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is shifting, with three core factors that previously led to valuation discounts now being dismantled: improved confidence in handling US-China risks, a return to economic construction focus, and the end of the renminbi asset contraction cycle [8][9] Sector Analysis - Urbanization as a growth driver is fading, with reform and transformation becoming the primary focus [9] - The three main drivers of the "transformation bull market" include the decline of risk-free returns, capital market reforms enhancing market investability, and increased certainty in China's transformation development [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in technology growth sectors, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption, and financial stocks, with a focus on quality strategies over barbell strategies [10] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned for upward potential, with a significant inflow of capital expected, particularly from foreign investors [13][14] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus for 2026, with opportunities in innovative drugs and brokerage firms [15] Fund Evaluation - The public fund industry is shifting towards a focus on equity, benchmarks, and long-term performance, with a growing emphasis on active equity funds and passive index funds [30][31] - The sales environment for public funds is evolving towards a model that prioritizes long-term client interests and diversified asset allocation [32] Fixed Income Strategy - The fixed income market is expected to experience a shift in macroeconomic anchors, with a focus on multi-asset investment opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment [35][36] Real Estate Outlook - The real estate market is anticipated to undergo changes, with a focus on marginal improvements and long-term growth potential [39][40] Transportation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by recovering demand and a favorable pricing environment [52][53] - The shipping industry is also poised for growth, with increasing demand for oil and dry bulk shipping [56][57] Coal Industry - The coal sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by recovering demand and supply constraints [74][75] Steel Industry - The steel industry is projected to stabilize, with demand recovering and supply constraints expected to support profitability [80][81]