周报 一级市场发行仍处低位，二级市场小幅上涨 中资美元债 2026-03-02 星期一 一级市场发行仍处低位： 上周中资离岸债一级市场发行仍处低位，新发 2 只债券，规模共约 3.65 亿美 元。其中，新城发展发行 3.55 亿美元债券，息票率 11.8%，为上周最大发行 规模及定价最高的新发债券。 二级市场小幅上涨： 美债收益率全线下行： 截至 2 月 27 日，2 年期美国国债收益率较上周下行 10.32bps，报 3.3749%； 10 年期国债收益率下行 14.51bps，报 3.9375%。 宏观要闻： 究 报 告 截至 2025 年末，点心债市场已连续六年增长。 研究部 姓名：段静娴 SFC：BLO863 电话：0755-21519166 Email：duanjx@gyzq.com.hk 2. 二级市场 2.1 中资美元债指数表现 请务必阅读免责条款 上周中资美元债指数（Bloomberg Barclays）按周上涨 0.42%，新兴市场 美元债指数上涨 0.17%。投资级指数最新价报 205.7648，周涨幅 0.45%； 高收益指数最新价报 165.0443，周涨幅 0.19%。 上周中资美元 ...

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen active trading, with a turnover of 13% and a transaction volume of 2.871 billion yuan as of February 27, 2026, at 14:09 [1] - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year government bond ETF has been 8.108 billion yuan [1] - In the last 13 trading days, there have been net inflows on 9 days, totaling 819 million yuan [1] Market Trends - The 30-year government bond futures saw a slight decline of 0.01%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts experienced minor increases of 0.02%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively as of February 27 [1] - The RMB exchange rate has entered a rapid appreciation phase, with both onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the 6.84 mark, reaching a nearly three-year high [1] - The strengthening of the RMB has positively impacted the offshore bond issuance environment, making offshore RMB bonds (dim sum bonds) increasingly attractive due to their local currency denomination, lower costs, and reduced exchange rate risks [1] Issuance Dynamics - In February alone, the issuance scale of dim sum bonds has exceeded 120 billion yuan [1] - Although Chinese dollar bonds benefit from lower repayment costs, they face rising hedging costs and exchange rate exposure risks, especially with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The restructuring of the offshore debt market for Chinese entities has become a clear trend [1][2]

新华财经北京2月24日电春节假期过后债市迎来较强开局。周二（2月24日）期现券早间持稳、午后稍 暖，国债期货主力收盘全线小涨，银行间现券收益率下行0.5BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼9264亿元， 短端资金利率多数上行。 机构认为，央行在关键时间节点对资金面仍保持维稳态度，但时点过后，银行间市场流动性将维持在合 理充裕水平，而非走向过度宽松。进入3月份后，债券市场波动性或将有所加大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.20%报112.96，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.5，5年期主 力合约涨0.07%报106.175，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.45。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，10年期国开债"25国开20"收益率下行0.25BP报1.9405%，30年期国 债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.5BP报2.2195%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.3BP报 1.7805%。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率全线回落，5年期和10年期日债收益率分别下行3.9BPs和3.3BPs，报1.569% 和2.076%。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间2月23日，10年期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is in a narrow - range corridor. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may remain warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the key resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7]. - In 2026, the local bond market will "front - load" issuance, and funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction, urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional major infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks, and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11]. - In 2026, the global attractiveness of Chinese fixed - income assets may increase, but the allocation power of overseas investors may not be the decisive factor affecting the bond yield trend [12]. - In the context of a volatile domestic stock market, investors can focus on four bond market allocation opportunities: the allocation and trading value of interest - rate bonds, the coupon advantage of high - quality credit bonds, the enhanced elasticity opportunity of convertible bonds, and the diversification value of international allocation [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Central Economic Work Conference and Monetary Policy in 2026 - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts (the current average legal deposit reserve ratio is 6.3%) and interest rate cuts (stable RMB exchange rate, narrowing bank net interest margin, and maturing long - term deposits) [6] 1.2 Bond Market Pattern in 2026 - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.8% - 1.9%. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may be warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the 1.80% resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7] 1.3 Inclination of Local Bond Market Scale in 2026 - Funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction (related to new technologies), urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks (about 6 trillion special refinancing bonds for debt replacement will be basically issued), and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11] 1.4 Global Attractiveness of Chinese Fixed - Income Assets in 2026 - Chinese fixed - income assets can effectively diversify risks in a global asset portfolio. With the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, their global attractiveness may increase, but the influence of overseas investors may not be decisive [12] 1.5 Bond Market Allocation Opportunities in 2026 - Interest - rate bonds: Provide a stable foundation for portfolio construction and trading opportunities for investors with certain trading abilities [15] - High - quality credit bonds: Focus on high - quality urban investment bonds in economically strong regions and industrial bonds in strategic industries [16] - Convertible bonds: Select bonds related to policy - supported sectors and pay attention to valuation [17] - International allocation: Chinese interest - rate bonds can attract foreign capital, and some high - quality Chinese dollar bonds can be a useful supplement [18]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a mixed performance with a generally loose liquidity environment, a recovery in the bond market, and a decline in convertible bond indices and individual securities [1][9]. Group 1: Domestic News - The State Administration for Market Regulation is advancing the construction of a unified national market to enhance the vitality of various business entities and promote high-quality economic development [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce reported that by 2025, China's service trade is expected to grow steadily, with a total import and export value of 80,823.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3]. - A new policy has been implemented in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing residents to purchase imported goods with a zero tariff policy, with an annual exemption limit of 10,000 yuan per person [4]. Group 2: International News - The U.S. JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020, indicating a weakening demand for labor in an uneven job market [5]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time, emphasizing the need for structural reforms amid geopolitical uncertainties and challenges in the external environment [6]. Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil futures prices fell, with WTI crude down by $1.85 to $63.29 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to rise [7]. Group 4: Financial Market Operations - On February 5, the central bank conducted a 1,185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 645 billion yuan for the day [8]. - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the DR001 and DR007 rates declining to 1.319% and 1.482%, respectively [9]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 0.50 basis points to 1.8080% [11]. - In the secondary market, two industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1碧地03" rising over 20% and "H0中骏02" increasing by over 264% [13]. - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices down by 0.84% to 0.95%, and a total trading volume of 740.66 billion yuan [17]. Group 6: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 2-year yield down 10 basis points to 3.47% and the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.21% [20]. - In the European bond market, most major economies saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down 2 basis points to 2.84% [21].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of capturing investment opportunities aligned with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [1][2] Investment Strategies - The investment landscape for 2026 is shaped by the "14th Five-Year Plan," which serves as a guiding framework for strategic investments, emphasizing high-quality development and innovation [2] - Key investment opportunities are identified in three main sectors: traditional industries (e.g., chemicals, shipbuilding), emerging industries (e.g., AI, energy storage), and frontier technologies (e.g., embodied intelligence, nuclear fusion) [2] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are expected to experience significant growth, with the total amount of License-out agreements projected to exceed $121.6 billion by 2025, doubling from 2024 [3] - The introduction of AI models is anticipated to shorten drug development cycles and enhance success rates, leading to a revaluation of the innovative drug sector [3] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed positively, with major investment banks highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy, making it a preferred choice for asset allocation [4][5] - The analysis of Hong Kong tech assets reveals two main investment themes: a return to EPS growth and cash flow recovery, alongside a focus on leading internet platforms and emerging industries like smart driving [5] AI Industry Insights - AI is positioned as a transformative force comparable to previous industrial revolutions, with significant growth potential as applications become more widespread [6] - The commercialization of AI applications, particularly in smart driving and robotics, is expected to gain momentum, presenting investment opportunities in related companies [6] Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy sector is forecasted to continue its upward trend, with significant opportunities in lithium battery technology and new materials, particularly solid-state batteries [7] - The chemical industry is also expected to see a recovery in profitability, driven by demand growth and supply-side reforms [7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The financial and real estate sectors are showing signs of recovery, with a rebound in second-hand housing transactions and improved profitability for insurance companies [8] - Investment opportunities are emerging in quality real estate firms and banks with strong wealth management capabilities [8] Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer sector is experiencing a shift, with new growth areas such as smart home products and outdoor lifestyle gaining traction [11] - The changing demographics and consumer preferences are expected to drive growth in sectors like travel, healthcare, and wellness [11] Fixed Income Investment Strategies - The fixed income market is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on short-term and medium-term bond funds for liquidity and steady growth [14] - The overall bond market is expected to exhibit a fluctuating pattern, influenced by monetary policy and economic data [14]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump is set to announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair, concluding a months-long selection process that has generated global speculation about the central bank's future direction [13][14] - The final candidates for the position include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder, with the selection process led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [14] - Trump indicated that the nominee would not be surprising and is well-known in the financial community, suggesting that many believe this person should have been nominated years ago [14] Group 2 - China’s international balance of payments for December 2025 showed a total trade in goods and services of 52,808 billion yuan, with exports of 26,647 billion yuan and imports of 18,114 billion yuan, resulting in a surplus of 8,533 billion yuan [22] - The service trade for December 2025 recorded exports of 3,541 billion yuan and imports of 4,507 billion yuan, leading to a deficit of 966 billion yuan [22] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 4,775 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 3,525 billion yuan on the same day [22] Group 3 - Huazhong City (01668.HK) announced progress in discussions with overseas creditors regarding a proposed debt restructuring plan, which, if approved by the Hong Kong court, would allow for the permanent suspension of a liquidation order [15] - CIFI Holdings Group (00884.HK) plans to sell a 50% stake in Luoyang Zhuofa for 105 million yuan, aligning with its strategic development goals and providing immediate cash flow [15] - Ruian Real Estate (00272.HK) accepted and registered a total of 295 million USD in bonds as part of a buyback offer, with an outstanding principal of 105 million USD as of January 29, 2026 [15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds declined last week, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.906 billion. The secondary market showed a slight increase [1][5]. - US Treasury yields fluctuated upward. As of January 23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.594%, and the 10 - year yield rose 0.23 bps to 4.2252% [3]. - Various macro - economic events occurred, including GDP growth in different countries, central bank policy decisions, and changes in economic forecasts [34][39][40]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds decreased. Six new bonds were issued, with a total scale of about $1.906 billion. The Hong Kong MTR Corporation issued two green bonds worth a total of A$2 billion, the largest issuance scale of the week. Shui On Land issued a $300 million bond with a coupon rate of 9.75%, the highest - priced new bond of the week [1][7]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Index Performance**: The Chinese US - dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.15% week - on - week, and the emerging market US - dollar bond index rose 0.20%. The investment - grade index closed at 203.1452, up 0.15% for the week, and the high - yield index closed at 161.8156, up 0.18%. The Chinese US - dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.11% week - on - week [5][9]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries had varying yield changes. For example, the healthcare industry's yield decreased by 40.2 bps, while the real - estate industry's yield increased significantly [19]. - **Rating Performance**: Investment - grade names generally rose, with A - grade weekly yields down 5.0 bps and BBB - grade down 2.7 bps. High - yield names mostly fell, with BB - grade yields down 6.6 bps and DD+ to NR - grade yields up about 7.9 bps [21]. - **Hot Events**: Panhai Holdings failed to repay due interest - bearing debts totaling 34.06 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. Sunac China Holdings had new overdue borrowings and 19 new acts of dishonesty [25][26]. - **Rating Adjustments**: The ratings of several companies were adjusted, such as the upgrade of Qingdao Haifa Group's issuer rating to A+ and the downgrade of Wanda Commercial's family rating to Ca [28][29]. 3.3 US Treasury Quotes - A table shows the quotes of US Treasuries, including the code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon rate, with maturities over 6 months and sorted by yield to maturity from high to low [30]. 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of January 23, the US Treasury yields were as follows: 1 - year (T1) at 3.5083%, down 2.66 bps from the previous week; 2 - year (T2) at 3.594%, up 0.8 bps; 5 - year (T5) at 3.8245%, up 0.93 bps; 10 - year (T10) at 4.2252%, up 0.23 bps [35]. 3.5 Macro News - US GDP in Q3 2025 had an annualized quarterly growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland, and tariffs would not take effect. Most economists expected the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter. The IMF raised the economic forecasts for China and the world in 2026. Japan's central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, and South Korea's GDP growth in 2025 was 1%, half of the previous year's rate [34][35][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds declined last week, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.906 billion. The secondary market showed a slight increase, and US Treasury yields fluctuated upward [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - The issuance volume of the primary market for Chinese offshore bonds declined last week, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.906 billion. MTR Corporation issued two green bonds totaling A$2 billion, the largest issuance scale last week, and Shui On Land issued a $300 million bond with a coupon rate of 9.75%, the highest - priced new bond last week [7] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US - dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US - dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.15% week - on - week, and the emerging market US - dollar bond index rose 0.20%. The investment - grade index was at 203.1452, up 0.15% for the week, and the high - yield index was at 161.8156, up 0.18% for the week. The Chinese US - dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.11% week - on - week, with the investment - grade return index at 244.9461, up 0.1% for the week, and the high - yield return index at 243.7889, up 0.21% for the week [9][14] 2.2 Performance of Chinese US - dollar Bond Industries - Different industries showed different trends. The telecommunications and healthcare sectors led the rise, while the real estate and non - essential consumer sectors led the decline. For example, the telecommunications sector's yield decreased by 45.5bps, and the healthcare sector's yield decreased by 40.2bps. The real estate sector's yield increased by 19.6Mbps, and the non - essential consumer sector's yield increased by 98bps [19][24] 2.3 Performance of Chinese US - dollar Bonds by Different Ratings - Investment - grade names generally rose, with the A - grade weekly yield down 5.0bps and the BBB - grade weekly yield down 2.7bps. High - yield names mostly fell, with the BB - grade yield down 6.6bps, the DD+ to NR - grade yield up about 7.9bps, and the non - rated name yield up 6.7Mbps [21] 2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - Fanhai Holdings failed to repay interest - bearing debts totaling 34.06 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. Sunac China Holdings had new overdue borrowings and 19 new acts of dishonesty [25][26] 2.5 Rating Adjustments of Entities Last Week - Sichuan Huixing Industrial Investment and Development Co., Ltd.'s long - term issuer credit rating was BBB -; Qingdao Haifa Group's international long - term issuer credit rating was upgraded from A to A+; Ganzhou Urban Construction Investment Group's issuer rating was A - with a positive outlook; Moody's maintained the rating and stable outlook of Bohai Bank; Moody's adjusted the rating outlook of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust Fund to stable; Moody's downgraded Wanda Commercial's family rating to Ca with a negative outlook; Fitch confirmed the long - term foreign and domestic currency issuer rating of Qingdao Huatong Group as BBB+ with a stable outlook [28][29] 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The report provides quotes for 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, including details such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon [30] 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of January 23, the 1 - year US Treasury yield was 3.5083%, down 2.66bps from the previous week; the 2 - year yield was 3.594%, up 0.8bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.8245%, up 0.93bps; the 10 - year yield was 4.2252%, up 0.23bps [35] 5. Macro News - The final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US GDP in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland issues, and related tariffs will not take effect. Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter. The US national debt increased by about $2.25 trillion in 2025. The IMF raised the economic growth forecasts for China and the world in 2026. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. South Korea's GDP grew 1% year - on - year in 2025. China's GDP in 2025 grew 5% year - on - year. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Three departments extended the tax incentives for innovative enterprise CDRs. The Ministry of Finance said the fiscal expenditure in 2026 will only increase. Six departments extended the tax incentives for community family services. Nine departments issued opinions to promote the high - quality development of the pharmaceutical retail industry. The shipment volume of Chinese foldable mobile phones increased 9.2% year - on - year in 2025. Housing prices in Chinese cities generally declined in December 2025. The extension proposal of "21 Vanke 02" was approved [34][35][36]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 美元债双周报（26 年第 4 周） 弱于大市 地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高 美国 11 月 PCE 物价指数符合预期，通胀温和且支出稳健。1 月 22 日美国经 济分析局发布的 11 月 PCE 报告显示，PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，环 比上涨 0.2%，均与市场预期一致，反映通胀温和运行。剔除食品和能源 后的核心 PCE 同比亦上涨 2.8%，环比增长 0.2%，同样符合预期。报告 同时指出，美国个人支出在 11 月保持稳健增长，显示消费者支出依然 是经济增长的重要支撑，不过储蓄率进一步下滑，这或对中长期消费动 力构成一定压力。核心 PCE 维持在较高水平但未显著超预期，表明通胀 压力虽有所缓解但仍高于美联储 2%的长期目标。 2025 年第三季度美国实际 GDP 终值年化季环比增速上修至 4.4%，略超预期， 达两年最快。增长由出口增强、库存变化负面影响减小及消费韧性驱动， 表明经济扩张动力强。同期核心 PCE 终值维持在 2.9%，高于美联储 2% 目标，通胀具粘性。强劲增长与稳健就业使市场预计美联储 1 月将按兵 不动。CME 美联储观察工 ...