Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint - The short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not last after April, and the continuous price reduction of liquid chlorine in Shandong has significantly increased the cost of caustic soda. The alumina supply surplus pattern in the demand side has not changed in the short - term, and the overall demand is weak. The spot price in Shandong is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production cut and load reduction after March is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - The 05 contract futures price is 2168, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 640, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2000, and the basis is - 168 [1] 2. Spot News - The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country is 442,900 tons (wet tons), with a month - on - month decrease of 6.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% [2] 3. Market Condition Analysis - The previous core logic of shorting caustic soda profit was the strength of liquid chlorine and the decline of caustic soda cost. But this logic will be challenged later. The short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not last after April. The continuous price reduction of liquid chlorine in Shandong has increased the cost of caustic soda. The demand side has an overall weak demand, and the supply side has an increasing expectation of production cut and load reduction. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "slightly strong" trend [4]