1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.7% to 84.6% week - on - week; the downstream alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, with production enterprises in North China actively accumulating inventory due to bullish expectations. The prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 323 yuan/ton. The increase in 50 - alkali exports boosted the spot market atmosphere, but due to the strong liquid chlorine price and the repair of chlor - alkali profit, there were few planned maintenance devices in April, and the improvement of domestic supply - demand was limited. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2200 - 2350 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the futures holding volume was 201,115 hands, an increase of 11,137 hands; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was 3,254 hands, an increase of 1,960 hands; the futures trading volume was 427,939 hands, an increase of 106,468 hands. The closing price of the January contract was 2,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 737 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,303 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. From March 21st to 27th, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%; from March 20th to 26th, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. As of March 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 525,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%. The SH2605 contract fell 4.13% to close at 2,250 yuan/ton. Market expectations are that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will ease. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong from March 20th to March 26th was 323 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Export orders have improved, but the pressure of supply surplus remains high. The 2605 contract of caustic soda is still recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, with a reference operating range of 2,150 - 2,550 yuan/ton [1][33] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Overview of Caustic Soda Fundamentals - Since March, the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has driven the chemical sector to strengthen, causing caustic soda futures to rise at the beginning of the month but fall sharply this week. The main reason is that after the geopolitical sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The short - term surplus pattern, approaching contract delivery, and high liquid chlorine prices suppress the price [4]. - As of March 31, the 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,340 yuan/ton. Driven by futures premium and export improvement expectations, the spot price rebounded to 2,303 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 37 yuan/ton [4]. - As of March 27, the latest weekly output reached 851,000 tons, remaining at a five - year high. High profits lead to weak maintenance willingness of chlor - alkali plants. The latest national weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda reached 520,000 tons, maintaining the inventory accumulation trend [4] 2. Impact of the US - Iran Conflict on Caustic Soda Fundamentals - The US - Iran conflict affects caustic soda fundamentals in two ways: potential overseas production cuts due to global energy price changes and support for caustic soda prices from the pressure on liquid chlorine prices caused by the reduction of PVC ethylene method production. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Asian (ex - China) and European natural gas shortages may lead to chlor - alkali plant production cuts, and China's export orders are expected to increase. The international price of caustic soda has risen from $340/ton to $480/ton, with an export profit of 458 yuan/ton, and export inquiries are active. However, short - term export channels and transportation capacity limitations are expected to restrict the actual export volume [17]. - The current data does not support the expectation of pressured liquid chlorine prices. Although the output of ethylene - based PVC has decreased due to rising crude oil prices, the output of calcium carbide - based PVC has increased, causing the total PVC output to rise. Moreover, due to the higher chlorine consumption of the calcium carbide method, the liquid chlorine price has rebounded after a short - term decline, currently at 300 yuan/ton. The prices of liquid chlorine and liquid caustic soda have risen simultaneously, and chlor - alkali plants have insufficient willingness to reduce production [17] 3. Outlook for the Future - Although export orders have improved, short - term exports are difficult to increase significantly. In reality, the new production capacity of caustic soda is gradually releasing output, and the inventory remains high. The short - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. In addition, the high premium of the 05 contract may increase the number of registered warehouse receipts, and the delivery pressure will also put pressure on the near - month 05 contract [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the total PVC production increased slightly. The ethylene - based PVC production reduction was less than expected due to the successive start - up of ethylene - based PVC plants such as Yantai Wanhua and Guangxi Huayi. The export order volume slightly recovered. It is necessary to pay attention to the increase in PVC costs globally, which may lead to better - than - expected exports. The current market generally believes that PVC has price competitiveness even without export tax rebates. The spot price of caustic soda fluctuates strongly, the price of calcium carbide strengthens this week, and the price of semi - coke also rises slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has slightly improved, but the production profit of some PVC production methods has declined. Upstream PVC prices fluctuate, caustic soda prices strengthen, and the comprehensive profit slightly strengthens. Traders mainly focus on spot - futures arbitrage, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. Downstream operating rates are still weak, but there is a slight situation of inventory replenishment [6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PVC Supply and Demand - **Production**: This week's total production was 49.48 tons, a slight increase of 0.49 tons compared with last week. The ethylene - based production was 12.83 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production was 36.65 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 46.41 tons, and the ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based production is expected to be 11.43 tons and 34.98 tons respectively [6]. - **Import and Export**: The weekly average import volume remained stable at 0.50 tons, and the weekly average export volume was 6.75 tons. The export order volume slightly recovered. In January, the export volume was 28.55 tons, and in February, it was 44.75 tons [6]. - **Apparent Demand**: This week's apparent demand was 46.94 tons, slightly lower than expected. Next week's apparent demand is expected to be 42.68 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total inventory decreased by 3.72 tons, and it is expected to continue to decline next week. The inventory of upstream calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based plants also decreased [6]. 3.2 Related Product Prices - The price of 32% caustic soda increased from 650 yuan/ton last week to 690 yuan/ton this week. The price of Shandong liquid chlorine increased from 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong raw salt decreased slightly from 225 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The price of Shaanxi semi - coke increased from 735 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong calcium carbide increased from 2980 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, and the price of Shaanxi calcium carbide increased from 2625 yuan/ton to 2700 yuan/ton. The price of ethylene in East China decreased slightly from 9800 yuan/ton to 9700 yuan/ton, while the price of imported ethylene increased from 1300 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton. The price of VCM increased from 6000 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Production and Valuation Profits - **Production Profit**: The calcium - carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 327 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it increased from 200 yuan/ton to 282 yuan/ton. The northwest integrated PVC profit decreased from 285 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton. The northwest calcium - carbide - purchased method profit decreased from 364 yuan/ton to 13 yuan/ton, the Shandong calcium - carbide - purchased method profit decreased from - 45 yuan/ton to - 327 yuan/ton, the imported ethylene - based method profit decreased from - 126 yuan/ton to - 399 yuan/ton, and the East China VCM - purchased method profit decreased from 567 yuan/ton to - 487 yuan/ton. The Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit increased from 33 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [8]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from 925 yuan/ton to 1178 yuan/ton. The theoretical export profit to India decreased from 1615 yuan/ton to 1543 yuan/ton, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increased from 2194 yuan/ton to 2530 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened from - 195 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, and that of South China calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened from - 55 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread decreased from 75 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased from - 54 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased from - 21 yuan/ton to - 116 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream Views and Strategies - **Upstream**: The upstream PVC price fluctuates, the caustic soda price strengthens, and the comprehensive profit slightly strengthens. Pay attention to the load reduction of upstream cracking units and the actual production reduction of ethylene - based units [9]. - **Mid - stream**: Traders mainly focus on spot - futures arbitrage, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. The cancellation of warehouse receipts next week may put some pressure on the spot market [9]. - **Downstream**: The downstream operating rate is still weak, but there is a slight situation of inventory replenishment [9]. - **Strategies**: Pay attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, beware of callback risks in unilateral trading, temporarily exit the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - month trading, and there is no option strategy for now [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as butadiene (up 42.36%), ethylene (up 39.18%), and LDPE (up 27.01%), while products like dichloromethane and pure MDI saw substantial declines [4][5][6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to lead to a significant increase in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $104.49 per barrel and WTI at $92.35 per barrel [6][17] - The report suggests focusing on helium, biodiesel, and agricultural chemicals as potential investment opportunities due to their expected growth driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [8][9][21] Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on chemical prices, suggesting a focus on products that are significantly affected by these events [20][22] Price Trends - The report details the weekly price movements of various chemical products, noting that while some products have rebounded, others continue to decline, indicating a mixed market sentiment [17][18][19] Specific Product Insights - The report identifies helium as a key investment opportunity due to its supply constraints and price elasticity during geopolitical conflicts [20] - Biodiesel is highlighted as a growing market in Europe, driven by rising SAF prices and energy security concerns [21] - Agricultural chemicals are expected to benefit from rising food prices, with a projected increase in demand for fertilizers and pesticides [21] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the fluctuations in the propane market, indicating a return to rational pricing amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints [27][28] - It also notes the stability in the spray coal market, supported by seasonal demand and stable pricing [29][30] PTA and Polyester Market - The PTA market is experiencing upward price pressure due to geopolitical risks and supply constraints, while the polyester market is facing challenges with demand and pricing stability [34][36][37] Urea Market - The urea market is characterized by narrow price declines amid a complex supply-demand dynamic, with expectations of increased supply from upcoming production restarts [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as butadiene (up 42.36%), ethylene (up 39.18%), and LDPE (up 27.01%), while products like dichloromethane and pure MDI saw substantial declines [4][5][6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to lead to a significant increase in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $104.49 per barrel and WTI at $92.35 per barrel [6][17] - The report suggests focusing on helium, biodiesel, and agricultural chemicals as potential investment opportunities due to their expected growth driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [8][9][21] Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices, which are expected to remain volatile [22][23] - It notes that the domestic demand for agricultural chemicals is likely to increase due to rising food prices, benefiting companies in the phosphate and potash sectors [21] Price Trends - The report details the weekly price movements of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with notable increases in certain sectors while others faced declines [4][5][6] - Specific products like butadiene and ethylene have shown remarkable price growth, while dichloromethane and pure MDI have experienced significant drops [17][18] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the current state of the propane market, indicating a high price level with fluctuations expected due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues [27][28] - It also highlights the stability in the spray coal market, with prices showing slight increases amid rising demand from steel manufacturers [29][30] Agricultural Chemicals - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is likely to see increased demand for fertilizers and pesticides due to rising food prices, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries [21][38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish, as the report anticipates significant production cuts due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The US-Iran conflict has disrupted the supply, causing the caustic soda futures to fluctuate and rise. The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy factors of caustic soda, and concludes that there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish investment view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises was 83.9%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The US - Iran conflict may lead to production cuts in coastal chlor - alkali plants. [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 90.14%, a 0.05% increase from last week. The average operating rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang was 50.83%, a 7.50% increase from the previous data and a 13.34% increase year - on - year. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda export volume was 309,638.3 tons, a 2.4% increase year - on - year and a 69.3% increase month - on - month; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 3,429,614.7 tons, a 31.6% increase year - on - year. [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a 6.28% decrease from the previous week and a 20.22% increase year - on - year. The inventory ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 28.02%, a 2.39% decrease from the previous week. The inventory ratios in major regions decreased. The sample warehouse inventory in Central China increased by 3.57%, while that in East China decreased by 17.83%. [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 481, with the futures price at a significant premium. [3] - **Profit**: During this period, raw material and energy costs were stable, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, the price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was adjusted to 150 yuan/ton. [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a large premium. [3] - **Macro - policy**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies are proposed currently. Key risks to monitor include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession. [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the spot price in Shandong slightly increased, while the futures price rose significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine rebounded, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was in the red, there was less maintenance, and enterprises reduced production less, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream demand was average, with rigid procurement, and traders had a weak willingness to stockpile, but export transactions were good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong was better than expected, with less inventory pressure, and enterprises were more willing to hold prices. However, the US - Iran conflict has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce production, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future. [7] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range. [36] - **Upstream Production**: The production capacity utilization rate remained high, and inventory decreased. [39] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. [42] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased. [43] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. [46] - **Alumina**: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased, alumina profit is poor but there has been no significant production cut, and the supply is in surplus with a large increase in factory bauxite inventory. [58][66] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum demand is weak, and the operating rate is at a low level. In the printing and dyeing industry, large dyeing factories mainly execute fixed - customer orders, while small and medium - sized dyeing factories rely on scattered small orders, resulting in a weak overall market operating rate. [68] - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: The in - plant inventory and capacity utilization rate data are presented. [77] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The operating rate has rebounded. [78]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of caustic soda futures has been rising, driven by a decline in supply and an increase in exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuation of crude oil prices leading to large - scale fluctuations in chemical futures prices, and chemical futures are affected by cost support, supply decline, and export increase. The conflict between the US and Iran has led to difficulties in ethylene exports from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally have also reduced their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, which in turn has led to a significant increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. Although the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has risen significantly, the price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda remains relatively stable. There is a situation where the downstream has difficulty accepting high prices in chemical futures trading. It is expected that there will be a certain number of warehouse receipts, which will put pressure on the spot and futures markets. In the later stage, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking of long positions and the basis regression when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: In the week of 20260313 - 0319, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. The chlor - alkali load in North China and Central China declined, while in South China, the load increased due to the resumption of some previously overhauled equipment in Guangxi. In Southwest China, the local load declined because two new chlor - alkali equipment were put into trial operation without commercial output. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load will remain around 84% next week [5]. - **Demand**: As of March 19, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 52.57%, a week - on - week increase of 2.42%. The startup rate in Shaoxing was 52.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.56%. The current dyeing factories are under the pressure of increased dyeing fees, and the downstream weaving's willingness to receive goods has weakened, leading to a market stalemate. The orders of dyeing factories are mainly "short - term and long - term less", and the proportion of long - term foreign trade orders continues to decline. Enterprises generally produce according to orders and stock up cautiously. The domestic market still has a rigid demand for spring and summer fabrics, but due to the high price of weaving raw materials and limited new orders, the bargaining space of dyeing factories has narrowed. It is expected that the startup rate of some small and medium - sized dyeing factories may decline at the end of the month, and the industry differentiation will intensify further [5]. - **Export**: From January to February, the export volume of caustic soda was 626,300 tons, including 480,500 tons of liquid caustic soda and 145,800 tons of flake caustic soda [5]. - **Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% and a year - on - year increase of 20.22%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China this week was 28.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The storage capacity ratios of liquid caustic soda in the Northwest, North China, Central China, East China, and South China regions have all declined [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,153 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 206 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The weak performance of both chlorine and caustic soda has led to a low comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [5]. 2. Price - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price**: The report provides historical price data of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price**: It shows the historical price data of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread**: The report presents the historical price data of the main caustic soda futures contract, the basis of the main 32% caustic soda contract in Shandong, the basis of the main 50% caustic soda contract in Shandong, and the spread between SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 to 2026 [12][13]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Price**: It provides the historical price data of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3. Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - **Caustic Soda Overhaul Situation**: This week, Hubei Yihua in Central China, Leshan Fuhua in Southwest China, and Fujian Huanyang in East China are undergoing overhauls. In the future, Kesai Chemical in Central China, Baililian in Central China, Shandong Jinmao in North China, Shanxi Yushe in North China, and Jiangsu Haixing in East China have overhaul plans [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: It provides the historical data of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 4. Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report shows the historical data of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise's liquid caustic soda purchase price, electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, alumina plant's alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][30][31]. - **Textile Industry**: It presents the historical data of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise's viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise's weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise's order days, Chinese textile enterprise's in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang region's dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [33][34][36][37]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: The report shows the historical data of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory's paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard cumulative production from 2021 to 2026 [38][39]. - **Export**: It provides the historical data of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2026 [41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, PVC production decreased slightly, with the calcium carbide method increasing its load and the ethylene method decreasing its load. After the upstream ethylene reduces its load next week, ethylene - based PVC production will decrease, and overall PVC production is expected to continue to decline. The export order volume has slightly recovered. Even if the export tax rebate for PVC is cancelled, it is expected to have a price competitive advantage. The apparent demand for this week was slightly lower than expected, and the inventory decreased by 33,200 tons this week, with further inventory reduction expected next week. The spot price of caustic soda fluctuated strongly, the calcium carbide price increased this week, the price of ethylene increased significantly, and the export profit of PVC improved significantly. Attention should be paid to whether ethylene - based PVC will continue to cut production, the impact of next - week's warehouse receipt cancellation on the spot, and the risk of price correction [6][9][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. Spot Market - **PVC Supply and Demand**: This week's total PVC production was 489,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last week. The ethylene - based production was 125,600 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons, and the calcium carbide - based production was 364,200 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons. The weekly average import and export volumes remained unchanged at 5,000 tons and 67,500 tons respectively. The apparent demand was 460,500 tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from last week. The total inventory was 975,900 tons, a decrease of 33,200 tons from last week. It is expected that next week's production will be 459,000 tons and 453,500 tons in the following week, and the apparent demand will be 449,100 tons and 426,800 tons respectively, with the inventory continuing to decrease [6] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 32% caustic soda rose from 630 yuan/ton last week to 650 yuan/ton this week. The price of Shandong liquid chlorine dropped from 300 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Shandong raw salt and Shaanxi semi - coke remained stable. The prices of calcium carbide in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Wuhai increased by 150 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of ethylene and VCM also increased [7] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and Shandong all weakened, with the East China calcium carbide - based basis dropping from - 14 yuan/ton last week to - 180 yuan/ton this week [9] - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 inter - month spread strengthened from - 1 last week to 59 this week, while the 5 - 9 spread weakened from - 18 to - 34 [9] 3. Industrial Chain Profits - **Production Profits**: The calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 502 yuan/ton last week to - 327 yuan/ton this week. The production profits of some PVC production methods changed, such as the Northwest integrated PVC profit decreasing from 405 yuan/ton to 285 yuan/ton, and the imported ethylene - based PVC profit dropping from - 244 yuan/ton to - 1470 yuan/ton [9] - **Import and Export Profits**: The FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from 916 yuan/ton last week to 925 yuan/ton this week, and the theoretical export profits to India and Southeast Asia increased significantly, by 925 yuan/ton and 1645 yuan/ton respectively [9] 4. Market Outlook - **Upstream**: The price of upstream PVC fluctuated, the price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit slightly declined. The calcium carbide - based production increased, and the ethylene - based production may decline. Attention should be paid to the load - reduction situation of the upstream cracking units [10] - **Mid - stream**: Traders mainly adopted the spot - futures arbitrage strategy, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. The cancellation of warehouse receipts next week may suppress the spot [10] - **Downstream**: The downstream operating rate is still weak, but there is a slight situation of inventory replenishment [10] - **Strategies**: Pay attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities. Be cautious of the risk of correction for unilateral trading. Temporarily exit the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. There is no option strategy for now [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: After the export tax - rebate was cancelled on April 1st, due to the ongoing international geopolitical conflicts, overseas cracking units reduced their loads, tightening the supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC. The export price increased significantly, and the new order transaction price of ethylene - based PVC rose a lot. Domestic ethylene - based enterprises also faced raw material supply limitations. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC improved, and some loads increased. The downstream demand gradually recovered, and the inventory pressure was relieved to some extent. The market sentiment was strong, but it was greatly affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Caustic Soda: Affected by the international geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali units were expected to reduce their loads, increasing the export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising the export quotes. The reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises led to an increased expectation of load reduction for integrated caustic soda. The price of 50% caustic soda strengthened rapidly, and the price of 32% caustic soda rose slightly. The supply - side operating rate increased slightly and was at a high level year - on - year. The demand from non - aluminum industries increased after the holiday, and the alumina production was expected to improve. The caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, and the cost support for caustic soda strengthened [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5,735 yuan/ton (-166), the East China basis was -95 yuan/ton (+106), and the South China basis was -5 yuan/ton (+46) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,640 yuan/ton (-60), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,730 yuan/ton (-120) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,960 yuan/ton (+30), the calcium carbide profit was 122 yuan/ton (+30), the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was 267 yuan/ton (+426), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was -235 yuan/ton (+48), and the PVC export profit was 155.7 US dollars/ton (+2.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 37.7 tons (-8.1), the social inventory of PVC was 63.2 tons (-0.4), the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.89% (+1.48%), the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.00% (-6.24%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 78.49% (-0.93%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 109.2 tons (+20.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,442 yuan/ton (-81), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -301 yuan/ton (+90) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 685 yuan/ton (+3), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/ton (+10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,133 yuan/ton (+9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 418.2 yuan/ton (+9.4), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 683.41 yuan/ton (-72.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 2,140.33 yuan/ton (+101.01) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 53.00 tons (-2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.90 tons (-0.90), and the caustic soda operating rate was 85.30% (-1.10%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate was 82.72% (+0.10%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 50.15% (+7.69%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 90.14% (+0.05%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Influencing factors: The cancellation of the export tax - rebate, geopolitical conflicts, raw material supply limitations, price and profit changes, and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Market situation: The export expectation improved, the cost pressure was transmitted, the supply shrank, the export continued, and the inventory pressure was relieved to some extent. The market sentiment was strong, but it was greatly affected by the Strait of Hormuz situation [3]. Caustic Soda - Influencing factors: Geopolitical conflicts, cost increases in overseas units, load reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises, price changes, supply and demand changes [3]. - Market situation: The export inquiries increased, the price of 50% caustic soda strengthened, the supply - side operating rate was at a high level, the demand increased, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. The cost support for caustic soda strengthened, and the futures price was at a premium to the spot price with increased volatility [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PVC analysis: After the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1st, combined with international geopolitical conflicts, overseas cracking units reduced their loads, leading to tightened raw material supply for ethylene - based PVC. The export price increased significantly, and domestic ethylene - based enterprises also faced raw material shortages. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC improved, and some loads were increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent. Market sentiment is strong, but it is greatly affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Caustic soda analysis: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali units may reduce their loads, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen rapidly, and the price of 32% caustic soda has followed slightly. The supply - side operating rate is slightly increased and at a high level year - on - year. The demand - side non - aluminum industries have increased their post - holiday operations, and the alumina production is expected to improve. The caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, and the cost support for caustic soda has strengthened [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC futures main contract is 5901 yuan/ton (+52), the East China basis is - 201 yuan/ton (-72), and the South China basis is - 51 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5700 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 92 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is 267 yuan/ton (+426), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 235 yuan/ton (+48), and the PVC export profit is 153.1 US dollars/ton (+16.5) [1]. - Inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 37.7 tons (-8.1), the social inventory of PVC is 63.2 tons (-0.4), the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 81.89% (+1.48%), the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.00% (-6.24%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 78.49% (-0.93%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 109.2 tons (+20.2) [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Oscillating and bullish - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH futures main contract is 2523 yuan/ton (-24), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 392 yuan/ton (+24) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 682 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1240 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1123 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 408.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 756.04 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 2039.32 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 53.00 tons (-2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (-0.90), and the caustic soda operating rate is 85.30% (-1.10%) [2]. - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 82.72% (+0.10%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 50.15% (+7.69%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 90.14% (+0.05%) [2]. Strategy - Single - side: Oscillating and bullish - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]