氯碱日报 | 2026-01-09 氯碱开工提升，库存小幅累积 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4905元/吨（-67）；华东基差-245元/吨（+27）;华南基差-265元/吨（+7）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4660元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4640元/吨（-60）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-110元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-634元/吨（+80）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-192元/吨（+87）；PVC出口利润-27.4美元/吨（+7.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.8万吨（+1.9）；PVC社会库存54.6万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率77.46%（+0.45%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.73%（-3.33%）；PVC开工率75.42%（-0.70%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量90.9万吨（+9.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2218元/吨（-43）；山东32%液碱基差-68元/吨（+43）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价688元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 政策端，陕西省就差别电价政策征求意见，拟对烧碱、电石等7个行业限制类产能加价0.1元/千瓦时、 淘汰类加价0.3元/千瓦时，政策涉及烧碱企业为陕西北元（120万吨）及陕西金泰（83万吨）。烧碱单 吨耗电约2300度，限制类加价将推升成本230元/吨，但该两家企业均有自备电厂，电价政策限制影响较 小。 成本端，部分耗氯下游受天气及价格接受度影响减少收货，今日山东滨州环氧丙烷企业暂不接货，液氯 需求转弱，价格下行，间接强化氯碱成本支撑。 免责声明： 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 昨日烧碱期货价格显著走强，主力合约SH2603午后收盘涨幅达4.34%，上涨核心驱动因素如下： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 态。本公司对本报告所含信息可 在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或 修改。 本 ...

机构观点 新湖期货：供应端开工维持高位并有进一步增加的预期，新增产能带来进一步的供应压力。利润虽然较 前期压缩，但企业仍能够维持生产，且液氯需求良好。需求方面，氧化铝高产量高库存，亏损扩大，山 西、河南等地氧化铝厂有减产预期，非铝下游刚需为主。未来预期烧碱价格仍偏弱，且缺少明显的向上 驱动。 华泰期货：后市来看，烧碱1月计划检修企业较少，供应压力难缓解；非铝下游进入季节性开工下滑淡 季，中长期氧化铝受反内卷政策影响，对烧碱的需求存收缩预期。近期烧碱供需偏弱，后续重点关注装 置检修动态及液氯价格变动。 1月6日，烧碱前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓15.55万手，空单持仓17.01万手，多空比 0.91。净持仓为-1.45万手，相较上日增加6460手。 近期华北、华东、华南地区部分装置恢复，带动烧碱全国平均产能利用率环比上升。 1月7日，烧碱期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨4.43%，报2263.0元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 1月6日浙江市场省内32%液碱送到萧绍价格在980-1020元/吨附近，48%离子膜碱1450-1550元/吨。 ...

上周，国际原油价格偏强震荡。截至2026年1月2日，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油期货(WTI)主 力合约结算价格为57.32美元/桶，较2025年12月26日上升1.02%；洲际交易所布伦特原油期货(Brent)主力 合约结算价格为60.75美元/桶，较2025年12月26日上升0.18%。 从现货市场看，涨幅前五名的石化产品分别为工业级碳酸锂上涨22.37%、精对苯二甲酸上涨8.32%、对 二甲苯(CFR中国)上涨6.97%、涤纶FDY上涨5.04%、页岩油上涨4.98%；跌幅前五名的石化产品分别为 液氯下跌37.72%、液化天然气下跌6.69%、纯MDI下跌4.23%、硫黄下跌3.96%、维生素D3下跌3.85%。 中化新网讯上周(2025年12月29日至31日)，仅有3个交易日，期间石油与化工指数中化工指数全部下 跌，石油指数全部上涨。 化工板块方面，化工原料指数累计下跌0.65%、化工机械指数累计下跌2.97%、化学制药指数累计下跌 2.19%、农药化肥指数累计下跌0.73%；石油板块方面，石油加工指数累计上涨6.19%、石油开采指数累 计上涨4.93%、石油贸易指数累计上涨2.66%。 从资本市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

后市来看，烧碱1月计划检修企业较少，供应压力难缓解；非铝下游进入季节性开工下滑淡季，中长期 氧化铝受反内卷政策影响，对烧碱的需求存收缩预期。近期烧碱供需偏弱，后续重点关注装置检修动态 及液氯价格变动。 风险提示：装置检修动态；液氯价格波动；下游囤货节奏 相关品种：烧碱 昨日烧碱期货价格大幅下跌，其中主力合约SH2603下午收盘跌幅达3.82%。下跌主要受以下几方面因素 驱动： （1）现货市场持续走低，区域采购价接连下调。山东地区下游接货情绪谨慎，氧化铝厂卸货效率一 般，32%碱接货价已降至660元/吨。山西孝义氧化铝企业1月50%碱采购价下调100元至2440元/吨（折 百）。广西地区氧化铝新增产能投放有所推迟，分步采购进行中，未形成集中补库，当地50%碱送到价 1月下调150元至3100元/吨（折百）。非铝行业进入季节性淡季，维持刚需采购，对市场支撑有限。 （2）液碱价格下行，氯碱企业挺价液氯意愿增强，山东信发今日上调液氯出厂价50元，执行价300元/ 吨。液氯价格向好带动氯碱装置维持高开工率，烧碱供应量持续处于高位，烧碱供需宽松维持。 （3）烧碱企业库存再度累积，山东、江苏烧碱库存累库。全国20万吨及以上 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货走弱，期货震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货走弱，期货震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.3万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上 周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升；江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设 | | | | 备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2)粘胶短纤行业产能利用率87.03%，较上周-2.59%。 ...

证券代码：600328 证券简称：中盐化工 公告编号：2026-003 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司 关于投资建设 中盐内蒙古化工钠业有限公司 年产1万吨金属钠、 副产1.55万吨液氯扩建项目的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 投资标的名称：中盐内蒙古化工钠业有限公司（以下简称"钠业公司"）年产1万吨金属钠、副产1.55万 吨液氯扩建项目 ● 投资金额：项目总投资8,396.92万元 （一）本次投资概况 1.本次投资概况 公司全资子公司钠业公司是国内金属钠龙头企业，为优化装置生产方式，提高装置运行质效，巩固行业 领先地位，公司拟投资建设年产1万吨金属钠、副产1.55万吨液氯扩建项目。项目总投资8,396.92万元， 其中：建设投资7,808.92万元，铺底流动资金468.82万元，建设期利息119.18万元。资金筹措方式：项目 资金42.4%来源于企业自有资金，57.6%来源于银行贷款。 2.本次交易的交易要素 ■ （二）董事会审议情况 2025年12月31日，公司召开第九届董事会第九次会 ...

需求季节性下滑，关注宏观动态 烧碱市场要闻与数据 价格方面：截至2026-01-02，烧碱期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2242元/吨（-31）；山东32%液碱基差-45元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价703元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1120元/吨（+0）。 供应方面：烧碱开工率86.00%，（+1.50%）；烧碱月度产量373.35万吨，同比+5.58%，烧碱周度产量84.17万吨 （+1.29%），停车检修造成的损失量为14.22万吨（-6.63%）。 需求方面：主力下游氧化铝开工率85.14%（+0.14%），氧化铝周度产量183.80万吨（+0.30），氧化铝港口库存15.80 （+1.80）；印染华东开工率61.28%（-0.78%）；粘胶短纤开工率85.05%（-1.98%）；白卡纸开工率：75.42%（+1.26%）； 阔叶浆开工率90.40%（-0.60%）。 氯碱月报 | 2026-01-04 库存方面：国内液碱厂库库存48.57万吨（+4.35），片碱厂库库存3.02万吨（+0.05）。 液氯方面：截至2026-01-02，山东液氯价格150元/吨（+0）；液氯下游 ...

Group 1 - Aerospace Power's main business does not involve commercial aerospace, nor does it have any commercial aerospace-related assets for external investment [1] - Daye Co., Ltd.'s robotic tendon products are still in the exploratory testing phase and have not yet achieved mass production [1] Group 2 - Zhongyan Chemical plans to invest 83.9692 million yuan to expand its production capacity to 10,000 tons of metallic sodium and 15,500 tons of liquid nitrogen annually [1] - Huakang Clean has won the bid for the construction of the laboratory process project (Phase I, first opening area) in Dalian Yinggeshi Science City [1] Group 3 - Lixun Precision intends to repurchase shares worth between 1 billion to 2 billion yuan [1] - Green Island Wind's actual controller's concerted actors plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 1% of shares [1] Group 4 - Guangku Technology expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 152.00% to 172.00% in 2025 [1] - Zhaoli Technology is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected violations of information disclosure [1]