2026 年 2 月 26 日 烧碱：近月交割压力大，但成本仍有支撑 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 05合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2167 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | 640 | 2000 | -167 | 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，春节期间受液氯走货困难影响山东部分企业开工负荷不满，碱厂库存较节前预期向 好，部分低库存企业价格拉涨。其中鲁西南 32%离子膜碱主流成交 590-650；鲁中东部 32%离子膜碱主流成 交 590-635，50%离子膜碱主流成交 990-1100；鲁北 32%离子膜碱主流成交 600-630；鲁南 32%离子膜碱主流 成交 660-670。 【市场状况分析】 春节期间，液氯维持弱势，山东液氯价格维持补贴，对烧碱价格产生支撑。春节后，烧碱高库存情况下， 短期大幅上涨空间或有限。考虑到节后仅 4 ...

烧碱产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2167 | 197 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 140547 | 88864 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -20345 | -3312 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 242102 | 85242 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2378 | 6 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2167 | 14 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -20345 | -3312 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 629 | 11 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 720 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 1966 | 35 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | -201 | -162 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山 ...

来源：中国能源网 华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.58%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆 99.5%min，7.46%），PVC（CFR东南亚，6.06%），氯化铵（农湿）（华东地区，5.71%），硫酸（双 狮98%，3.85%），磷酸二铵（美国海湾，3.71%），尿素（河南心连心(小颗粒)，3.41%），PA6切片 （华东地区，3.30%），国际汽油（新加坡，3.13%），国际石脑油（新加坡，3.06%）。 判断理由：截至2026-02-23收盘，布伦特原油价格为71.49美元/桶，相较上周+4.14%；WTI原油价格为 66.31美元/桶，相较上周+3.98%。预计2026年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美金。鉴于当前国际局势不确 定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价的中国石化等。 化工产品价格方面，本周部分产品有所反弹，其中本周上涨较多的有：工业级碳酸锂上涨7.58%，电池 级碳酸锂上涨7.46%，PVC上涨6.06%，氯化铵（农湿）上涨5.71%等，但仍有不少产品价格下跌，其中 液氯跌幅-46.95%，硝酸跌幅-8.00%，冰晶石跌幅-6.76 ...

华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.58%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆 99.5%min，7.46%），PVC（CFR东南亚，6.06%），氯化铵（农湿）（华东地区，5.71%），硫酸（双 狮98%，3.85%），磷酸二铵（美国海湾，3.71%），尿素（河南心连心(小颗粒)，3.41%），PA6切片 （华东地区，3.30%），国际汽油（新加坡，3.13%），国际石脑油（新加坡，3.06%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 工业级碳酸锂、电池级碳酸锂等涨幅居前，液氯、硝酸等跌幅较大 本周跌幅较大的产品：液化气（长岭炼化，-3.98%），合成氨（江苏新沂，-4.46%），硫磺（高桥石化 出厂价格，-4.61%），锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，-4.62%），盐酸（华东合成 酸，-4.65%），二氯甲烷（华东地区，-5.16%），天然气（NYMEX天然气(期货)，-5.99%），冰晶石 （河南地区，-6.76%），硝酸（安徽98%，-8.00%），液氯（华东地区，-46.95%）。 本周观点：受地缘局势影响，国际油价震荡运行，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 判断理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Material, Sinopec, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun Co., and Dao Tong Technology [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.58%) and battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.46%), while liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [4][18]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][18]. - The chemical industry is currently facing a mixed performance, with some sectors showing resilience while others struggle due to overcapacity and weak demand [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price trends in key chemical products, noting both significant increases and decreases in various sectors [4][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand and import substitution potential [21]. Price Trends - Key products that saw price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, PVC, and ammonium chloride, while products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid saw significant price drops [4][5][18]. - The report indicates that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with performance varying across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Market Outlook - The report predicts that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [6][18]. - It highlights the potential for certain sectors, such as the lubricants and chemical fertilizers, to benefit from domestic demand and import substitution strategies [21].

两烯期货主力合约日内高开上行收涨，盘中下探5日均线获支撑。虽节中短停装置已恢复重启,但考虑到市场供 应面压力可控,下游工厂刚需跟进,且成本面影响较大,价格走势偏强。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。油价假期期间上行对聚烯烃盘面形成明显提标，目前市场主要交易 成本端逻辑。从基本面而言,节后归来,下游工厂尚未完全复工,市场交投气氛偏淡,后续随着下游客户返 市，需求端将逐渐恢复。假期内库存累积至高位，供应端压力增加,市场观望情绪浓厚。 | | 国际大博 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月24日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ★☆☆ | PTA | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 短纤 | ★ ...

【现货消息】 春节期间，烧碱现货无变化，液氯仍维持补贴。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2243 640 2000 -243 2026 年 2 月 24 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 期货研究 春节期间，液氯维持弱势，山东液氯价格维持补贴，对烧碱价格产生支撑。春节后，烧碱高库存情况下， 短期大幅上涨空间或有限。考虑到节后仅 4 个交易日就进入 03 合约交割，目前烧碱仓单 895 手，交割压力 仍较大。市场或先交易交割压力，之后再考虑未来减产预期，下游需求环比改善等。 从基本面看，氧化铝随着产能减产，供需结构逐渐逆转，关注后期大规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非 铝下游季节性淡季，3 月份刚需将持续回升，出口保持坚挺，美国价格偏高，欧洲转向亚洲采购烧碱。供应 端看，山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续补贴导 ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-13 下游开工节前走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4938元/吨（-52）；华东基差-208元/吨（+42）;华南基差-98元/吨（+32）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2945元/吨（+15）；电石利润67元/吨（+15）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-698元/吨（-39）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利129元/吨（+26）；PVC出口利润15.4美元/吨（+0.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.2万吨（+2.4）；PVC社会库存61.4万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.78%（+0.41%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.69%（+0.44%）；PVC开工率78.62%（+0.41%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量101.3万吨（-5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1958元/吨（+4）；山东32%液碱基差-83元/吨（+27）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价600元/吨（+10）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

期货研究 烧碱：成本抬升，偏强震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2168 640 2000 -168 2026 年 2 月 13 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 从基本面看，需求端氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过后期也有大 规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口囤货偏弱，整体需求偏弱。供应端看， 山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续降价导致烧碱面临成本抬升、供应预期大规模减产的格局。因此建议 05 合约多单持 有。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 44.29 万吨(湿吨)，环比下调 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to active replenishment by non-aluminum downstream last week, liquid caustic soda plant inventories were seasonally reduced, but inventory pressure remains high. Shandong chlor-alkali profits decreased month-on-month and entered a state of theoretical loss. Currently, there are still few maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants, and there is no signal of production reduction in the industry, so the high operating rate is expected to continue in the short term. In February, some alumina enterprises will undergo maintenance due to factors such as environmental protection and flexible production, and the consumption of the alumina industry is expected to decline marginally. As the Spring Festival approaches, some non-aluminum downstream enterprises will gradually take holidays and stop work, leading to a seasonal decline in non-aluminum demand for caustic soda. Today, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong turned negative, deepening the theoretical loss of Shandong chlor-alkali, and strengthening the cost support for caustic soda. With the game between weak supply and demand and cost support, caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1900 - 2000, and the daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2120 - 2200 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1954 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the trading volume was 260,268 lots, a decrease of 187,719 lots; the open interest was 112,328 lots, a decrease of 20,346 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was -17,061 lots, a decrease of 9 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, and the converted 100% caustic soda price was 1844 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan. The price in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From January 30 to February 5, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. From January 31 to February 6, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month-on-month to 84.06%. From January 30 to February 5, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43% month-on-month, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 22.74% month-on-month to 27.91%. As of February 5, SH2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 1954 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating loads of plants in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the average operating rate of caustic soda in the whole country changed little. Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 471,400 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year increase of 2.97%. From January 30 to February 5, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 121 yuan/ton [3]