烧碱产业日报 2025-11-26 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2229 | -19 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 150260 | 5169 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19656 | -2067 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 241509 | 79282 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2229 | -19 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2380 | -15 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19656 | -2067 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 760 | 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日, ...

化工现货方面，上周涨幅前五名的石化产品分别为工业级碳酸锂上涨13.67%、碳酸二甲酯上涨 12.32%、锂电池电解液上涨8%、硫酸上涨7.54%、叶酸上涨6.25%；跌幅前五名的石化产品分别为液氯 下跌6.25%、二甘醇下跌5.35%、丙烯酸异辛酯下跌5.13%、乙烯法聚氯乙烯下跌3.49%、四氯乙烯下跌 3.49%。 资本市场方面，上周沪深两市股价涨幅前五名的上市化企分别是国风塑业上涨33.33%、华融化学上涨 27.82%、同益股份上涨16.51%、晨光新材上涨16.37%、彤程新材上涨14.75%；股价跌幅前五名的上市 化企分别是安纳达下跌26.13%、泰和科技下跌25.64%、嘉澳环保下跌25.62%、建业股份下跌24.85%、 三房巷下跌23.33%。 上周，特朗普政府敦促乌克兰和俄罗斯达成和平协议，以结束持续3年的战争，令原油市场情绪转为看 空，加之美元走强，导致原油价格一路下行。截至11月21日，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油期货 (WTI)主力合约结算价格为58.06美元/桶，较11月14日下跌3.38%；洲际交易所布伦特原油期货(Brent)主 力合约结算价格为62.56美元/桶，较11月 ...

烧碱 :现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱期货与32碱价格走势 -400 -200 0 200 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 06/19 07/29 09/07 10/17 基差 32碱-山东（折百） 主力合约 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.6%，较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，华北、东北负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最大+2.9%至95.7%；华北+2.1% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the organic silicon industry, highlighting its potential benefits from the chemical sector's internal competition [4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 7.47% in the third week of November, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.58 percentage points [13]. - The only sub-industry that saw an increase was petroleum processing, which rose by 2.64%, while 31 sub-industries declined, with the largest drop in acrylic fiber at -15.33% [17]. - Key products with significant price increases included dimethyl carbonate (+12.32%) and thionyl chloride (+11.39%), while liquid chlorine saw the largest decrease at -6.25% [22][3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that benefit from the chemical sector's internal competition, such as Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 23.78, significantly higher than the average PE of 5.33 since 2015 [13]. - The total number of stocks in the industry is 446, with a total market value of 7114.2 billion and a circulating market value of 6648.5 billion [5]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases and decreases, indicating significant volatility in the market [22][3]. - The price spread for propylene (methanol-based) increased by 296.55%, while the PTA spread decreased by 157.04% [42][46]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in stocks of chlorpyrifos (-12.5%) and propylene oxide (-11.83%), while polyester filament saw an increase of 10.21% [66].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the weak performance of caustic soda futures, with the primary contract experiencing a decline of nearly 1% and trading at 2243.0 yuan, down 0.93% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, with no significant driving forces, and inventory levels are slightly high. The end of the concentrated maintenance season suggests a mid-term increase in both supply and demand, but the overall conflict remains manageable [2]. - Current spot prices for caustic soda are around 2375 yuan, indicating a loose market. The cost of production is estimated to be between 2050 and 2350 yuan, which is a critical support level to monitor [2][3]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Pressure - Most production facilities have completed maintenance, leading to a weak price for liquid caustic soda, while liquid chlorine prices remain relatively high. The profit margins for electrolysis units are at lower levels compared to previous years [3]. - The introduction of new production capacities is expected to exert further supply pressure, with a focus on the sustainability of liquid chlorine inventory reduction and downstream demand. Current conditions indicate good demand for liquid chlorine from downstream sectors [3]. - The aluminum oxide industry is facing increased losses, leading to a marginal decline in production and operating capacity, which contributes to high inventory levels. However, there is a lack of substantial reduction in production despite the pressures [3].

本周观点：欧佩克降价增产，国际油价震荡运行，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 华鑫证券近日发布化工行业研究：化工产品价格方面，本周部分产品有所反弹，其中本周上涨较多的 有：甲苯上涨25.22%，液氯上涨13.73%，甲基环硅氧烷上涨13.64%，硫酸上涨11.11%等，但仍有不少 产品价格下跌，其中丁二烯跌幅-7.89%，醋酸乙烯跌幅-4.35%，二氯甲烷跌幅-4.23%，燃料油跌 幅-3.80%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 甲苯、液氯等涨幅居前，丁二烯、醋酸乙烯等跌幅较大本周涨幅较大的产品：甲苯（FOB韩国， 25.22%），液氯（华东地区，13.73%），甲基环硅氧烷（DMC华东，13.64%），硫酸（杭州颜料化工 厂105%，11.11%），硫磺（CFR中国合同价，10.00%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆99.5%min，8.78%）， 锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，8.70%），合成氨（河北金源，8.58%），硫酸（双狮 98%，8.00%），工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.59%）。 本周跌幅较大的产品：双酚A（华东，-2.05%），PVC（华东乙烯法，-2.06%），丙烯（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [9][19]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in products such as toluene (up 25.22%) and liquid chlorine (up 13.73%), while products like butadiene and vinyl acetate saw notable declines [4][5][16]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current international oil price fluctuations [6][19]. - The report anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material price declines [6][19]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets for potential investment opportunities [19]. - It recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [19]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like China Heartland Fertilizer and Hualu Hengsheng [19]. Price Trends and Market Analysis - The report notes that while some chemical products have rebounded in price, the overall industry remains weak, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [17][19]. - It provides detailed price movements for various chemicals, indicating a general trend of price increases for certain products and declines for others [4][5][16]. - The report discusses the impact of OPEC's decisions on oil prices and how this affects the chemical industry, particularly in terms of raw material costs [6][20]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, with a focus on their expected EPS and PE ratios for the coming years [9]. - Companies such as Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [9][19]. - The report suggests that companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields, like the "three barrels of oil," will benefit from the current market conditions [19].

本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整 体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百 分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9 位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅 为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 主要观点： 行业周观点 2025年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势，推荐关注合成生物学、农药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃 化工、COC聚合物、MDI等行业: （1）合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下，化石基材料或在局部面临颠覆性冲击，低耗 能的产品或产业有望获得更长成长窗口。对于传统化工企业而言，未来的竞争在于能耗和碳税的成本， 优秀的传统化工企业会利用绿色能源代替方案、一体化和规模化优势来降低能耗成本，亦或新增产能转 移至 ...

特别提示 本公司董事会及全体董事成员保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其 内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 山东鲁北化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年11月18日14:00-15:00在上海证券交易所上证路 演中心（网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/）通过网络互动方式召开了2025年第三季度业绩说明会，现 将召开情况公告如下： 一、业绩说明会召开情况 回复：尊敬的投资者，您好！针对钛产业，公司将以做大做强钛产业为目标，对现有运行装置进行结构 调整、产业升级、技术创新、节能减排，稳定提高产能，实现装置高效稳定运行；充分发挥地域、资源 配套优势，构建形成优势互补、良性互动的钛产业发展格局，在稳步推进钛白粉产能扩张、发挥规模优 势，实现对上游高钛渣企业整合的同时，继续加快实施资源储备，积极寻找国内外优质钛矿资源和合作 机会，通过并购、参股合作，协议采购等组合方式，构建多元化供应体系，并依托区位优势、技术优 势，力争建成国内有广泛影响力的大型钛产业示范基地。感谢您对公司的关注。 问题5：您好，看公司经营数据，液氯价格比同期低很多，主要原 ...

烧碱产业日报 2025-11-18 利润持续，近期下游主力采购价下调，山东32%液碱市场价承压下跌。目前主力基差仍偏高，反映市场对 后市供需偏弱预期等待验证，关注12月氧化铝是否有集中减产计划。技术上，SH2601关注2250附近支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2286 | -5 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 149936 | -717 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -17632 | 63 ...