Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The drop in caustic soda spot prices is not over, but due to the impact of liquid chlorine and rising costs, the far - month valuation is repaired, yet the space for continuous rebound may be limited. Later, focus on the impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. If there is substantial production reduction or load reduction, it can be treated bullishly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 3, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2391, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 770, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2406, and the basis was 15 [1] Spot News - In July 2025, the purchase price of 32% liquid caustic soda by Henan alumina enterprises was lowered by 140. The delivered price in Sanmenxia area was about 2880 yuan/ton (converted to 100% purity), and in Zhengzhou area was about 2810 yuan/ton (converted to 100% purity), with differences due to transportation distance [2] Market Condition Analysis - Caustic soda spot prices are still under pressure because Shandong alumina enterprises keep lowering purchase prices. When there is an expectation of price cuts, downstream and traders' inventory demand slows down, intensifying the negative market feedback. The short - selling drive has slowed down recently as the liquid chlorine price has dropped faster than expected, increasing the possibility of caustic soda passive production cuts [3] - In July, the caustic soda maintenance capacity decreased significantly compared to June, mainly in the Northwest and East China, and the previously maintained devices in Shandong will restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [3] - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction provides some support with strong low - price restocking willingness. The cost has increased due to the rapid drop in liquid chlorine, despite the continued decline in electricity prices in July [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]