Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The recent sharp decline in caustic soda futures prices is due to the market returning to fundamentals after the previous export expectations were fulfilled. Currently, the domestic caustic soda market faces high supply and high inventory pressure, and it is expected to maintain a bearish and volatile pattern in the short term [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 30, the main contract of caustic soda futures increased in position and declined, with an intraday decline of 4.39%. Since March 24, caustic soda futures have continued to decline, giving back the previous gains [1]. 3.2 Driving Factors - **Export Expectation Fulfillment**: In March, the caustic soda futures price first declined slightly and then rose sharply, mainly driven by the sudden geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which led to a sharp increase in export orders for 50% high - concentration liquid caustic soda. However, as the export orders were gradually implemented, the market's expectation of the "export dividend" was fully digested, and the withdrawal of long - position funds led to the sharp decline in prices [3]. - **Supply - Demand Contradiction**: The supply of caustic soda remains loose. As of March 26, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 86%, a slight increase of 0.7% month - on - month. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above increased by 4.93% month - on - month and 14.28% year - on - year. On the demand side, alumina manufacturers maintained rigid procurement after the festival, and the overall start - up was at a low level in the same period of previous years; non - aluminum downstream demand gradually recovered, but the overall growth rate was slow. The demand improvement was not enough to offset the pressure of high supply and high inventory [4][5][8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short term, the real - world pressure of high supply and high inventory in the domestic market will continue to suppress prices, and caustic soda futures are expected to maintain a bearish and volatile pattern until a new price equilibrium is found. - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the maintenance rhythm of chlor - alkali plants and cost support. As the price falls near the cash cost line of some high - cost enterprises, the supply side may experience passive production cuts. At the same time, it is necessary to closely monitor when the inflection point of high - inventory destocking appears and the supporting effect of the cost side on prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the trading mainline of the caustic soda market switched, and the price shifted from "low - level repair" to "central - level upward movement", which was the result of the superposition of sentiment, flow, and marginal fundamental repair [2][3] - In April, the caustic soda price is more likely to operate in a "high - level volatile and strong" manner rather than a "unilateral continuous short - squeeze". The price center is expected to rise compared with February, but further upward movement requires continuous inventory decline and actual export orders [17][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the trading mainline of the caustic soda market changed. In February, the core contradiction was high - start, high - inventory, and unconfirmed post - holiday demand recovery, with prices showing low - level stability and basis repair. In March, geopolitical disturbances, improved foreign inquiries, marginal decline in domestic factory inventories, and stable alumina demand drove the price to move upward [2][3] - From late February to March 26, the national 32% liquid caustic soda price rose from 634 yuan/ton to 728 yuan/ton, a 15% increase. The caustic soda price increase was in the context of the overall valuation increase of the energy and petrochemical chain [3] - The caustic soda main contract rose from 2125 yuan/ton at the end of February to 2442 yuan/ton on March 9 and 2547 yuan/ton on March 16, then fluctuated, with a maximum of 2675 yuan/ton, and closed at around 2500 yuan/ton on March 26. The weekly average price of Shandong 32% caustic soda was 716 yuan/ton, a 14% increase from the previous month [4] - The core of the trading logic in March was the superposition of "export expectation + energy cost expectation + high - level sentiment". The continuation of the market depends on export order fulfillment, inventory decline, and stable alumina procurement [4] - In early March, the main driver was external shocks. After the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the supply expectations of global natural gas and olefin chains tightened, and the export expectation of high - concentration caustic soda increased [5] - After mid - March, the market transitioned from "pure expectation - driven" to "real - data verification". Whether the price could stabilize depended on factors such as whether factory inventories peaked and declined, whether alumina procurement remained stable, and whether the spot market could follow the upward movement of the futures [6] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - The high - start pattern continued in March, and the supply pressure was marginally relieved. The industry average start - up rate remained at a high level, with about 86.1% in February, around 86.4% in the first week of March, and 84.6% this week. The national chlor - alkali load is expected to recover to around 85% next week [8] - The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased from 50.96 million tons at the end of February to 55.57 million tons in the first week of March and 52.54 million tons this week, a 4.93% increase month - on - month. The de - stocking needs to be verified [8] - In April, the focus of the market on supply is whether high - start can coexist with de - stocking [9] 3.2.2 Demand - Alumina is the core of total demand, and non - aluminum demand determines marginal elasticity. In March, the alumina start - up rate remained at around 81.8%, and non - aluminum downstream industries improved slightly compared with February, but the overall increase was limited [10] - The key to whether the caustic soda price has continuous support lies in the stability of the alumina demand base and whether non - aluminum demand repair can drive de - stocking [10] 3.2.3 Inventory and Flow - The core of the inventory logic in March was that the inventory direction changed from "continuous accumulation" to "loosening at a high level". The inventory decreased after rising in March, indicating an improvement in the spot acceptance ability [11] - The linkage of inventory, export inquiries, and basis is the key to track. For April, the inventory path is the first indicator to judge the market nature [11] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The core cost components are electricity (55% - 65% of the total cost, with a power consumption of 2900 - 3100 degrees per ton of caustic soda), raw salt (10% - 15%), and processing and others (about 20%) [12] - In March, the industrial electricity price in main production areas such as Shandong decreased, and the self - supplied power in the northwest had significant advantages. The raw salt price was stable with a slight increase. The full cost in Shandong was about 1800 - 2050 yuan/ton, and the marginal cost was 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, forming a price bottom [13] - There were regional differences in profits. The profit of self - supplied power + integration in the northwest was 2140 yuan/ton, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 550 yuan/ton, and the profit of single caustic soda enterprises was only 100 - 500 yuan/ton. The increase in liquid chlorine price improved the profit, but the weakening of PVC dragged down the comprehensive profit [13] 3.3 Foreign Trade and International Pricing - In March, the marginal impact of external factors on caustic soda increased. The FOB export inquiry price of caustic soda in East China rose to 340 - 450 US dollars/ton on March 12, higher than the previous transaction range of Northeast Asian liquid caustic soda [16] - The export logic is in the stage of "enhanced expectation, to be tracked for fulfillment". In April, in addition to external events, it is necessary to track whether the foreign quotation remains strong and whether the domestic spot pressure is reduced due to export diversion [16] 3.4 March Outlook and Futures Strategy - In April, caustic soda is more likely to operate in a "high - level volatile and strong" manner. The supporting factors include the increase in the official monitoring price of 32% liquid caustic soda, the marginal decline of factory inventory after mid - March, stable alumina demand, and strong export inquiries [17] - The suppressing factors include the high - start pattern of the industry, high absolute inventory level, and the high proportion of sentiment and geopolitical factors in the March price increase [18] - Key variables to track include the prices of 32%/50% liquid caustic soda, the path of sample factory inventory, the operating load of alumina, and the changes in FOB export inquiries in East China. Industrial customers are more suitable for rolling hedging [18]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement highlights a tender for the purchase of 32% liquid caustic soda by Wande's (Tangshan Caofeidian) Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., with a budget of 3.0328 million yuan [1] Company Summary - Wande's (Tangshan Caofeidian) Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. is involved in a tender for liquid caustic soda, indicating active participation in procurement projects [1] - The company is jointly held by Wande's and Dongjiang Environmental Protection, with ownership stakes of 16% and 80% respectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The drop in caustic soda spot prices is not over, but due to the impact of liquid chlorine and rising costs, the far - month valuation is repaired, yet the space for continuous rebound may be limited. Later, focus on the impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. If there is substantial production reduction or load reduction, it can be treated bullishly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 3, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2391, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 770, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2406, and the basis was 15 [1] Spot News - In July 2025, the purchase price of 32% liquid caustic soda by Henan alumina enterprises was lowered by 140. The delivered price in Sanmenxia area was about 2880 yuan/ton (converted to 100% purity), and in Zhengzhou area was about 2810 yuan/ton (converted to 100% purity), with differences due to transportation distance [2] Market Condition Analysis - Caustic soda spot prices are still under pressure because Shandong alumina enterprises keep lowering purchase prices. When there is an expectation of price cuts, downstream and traders' inventory demand slows down, intensifying the negative market feedback. The short - selling drive has slowed down recently as the liquid chlorine price has dropped faster than expected, increasing the possibility of caustic soda passive production cuts [3] - In July, the caustic soda maintenance capacity decreased significantly compared to June, mainly in the Northwest and East China, and the previously maintained devices in Shandong will restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [3] - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction provides some support with strong low - price restocking willingness. The cost has increased due to the rapid drop in liquid chlorine, despite the continued decline in electricity prices in July [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]

Core Insights - Southeast Chemical has focused on cultivating new productive forces, aiming for "strategic restructuring + talent reorganization + management evolution" as its core breakthrough this year [1] Group 1: Strategic Restructuring - In Q1, Southeast Chemical's caustic soda production increased by 34.63%, revenue grew by 32.71%, and total profit surged by 90.89% [1] - The company aims to transform from a "capacity exporter" to a "standard setter" by 2025, enhancing its market competitiveness through optimized production elements and strategic partnerships [2] - Southeast Chemical signed annual strategic cooperation agreements with four leading companies in the petrochemical industry, resulting in new orders exceeding 300 million [2] - The company has successfully exported caustic soda to Australia for the first time, marking a significant step in its global expansion [2] Group 2: Talent Reorganization - Southeast Chemical has implemented a dual-track mechanism for talent management, focusing on fair and transparent recruitment and promotion processes [4] - In Q1, 51 intermediate workers and 35 senior workers were promoted through competitive selection, alongside various other roles [4] - The newly promoted engineers and specialists are involved in 40 projects aimed at improving product concentration control and delivery efficiency, expected to generate an additional 24 million in annual benefits [4] Group 3: Management Upgrade - The company is addressing management challenges by combining problem-oriented, goal-oriented, and result-oriented approaches to ensure effective management upgrades [5] - Southeast Chemical has launched a dynamic monitoring system for key pumps, achieving 100% real-time monitoring and alerting for critical equipment [5] - The company has completed a network architecture upgrade for the DeltaV control system, transitioning to a standardized management model that enhances automation and intelligence in production [5]