热轧卷板周度数据（20260213） 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 307.76 -1.40 309.21 -1.45 322.64 -14.88 高炉产能利用率（%） 86.41 0.72 85.47 0.94 84.64 1.77 表观需求量 296.19 -9.35 311.41 -15.22 302.56 -6.37 冷轧卷板周产量 88.68 -0.20 88.42 0.26 85.79 2.89 总库存 370.77 11.57 355.58 15.19 336.51 34.26 厂内库存 79.85 1.10 77.25 2.60 79.55 0.30 社会库存 290.92 10.47 278.33 12.59 256.96 33.96 热轧卷板供需两端延续季节性走弱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have changed, with inventory destocking narrowing. The production of plate mills has stabilized. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils has increased by 38,000 tons week-on-week, rising again and remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory level is high, and the supply pressure persists. The demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly week-on-week, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold-rolled products. However, the accumulation of contradictions needs to be guarded against, and the external export demand is average. The demand resilience needs further tracking. Currently, both supply and demand of hot-rolled coils remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. However, there are concerns about demand. If the demand weakens, it may intensify industrial contradictions, and the price is likely to be under pressure. The positive factor is that the commodity sentiment is good, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalog Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 3.0921 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,000 tons, a monthly increase of 47,000 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 53,200 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a monthly increase of 0.21 percentage points compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 1.23 percentage points compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 884,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 100 tons, a monthly increase of 20,500 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 34,800 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 3.1141 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 14,500 tons, a monthly increase of 6,400 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 103,300 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 3.5558 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 153,800 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 456,700 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The in-plant inventory is 772,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,100 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,700 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 1,000 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The social inventory is 2.7833 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,100 tons, a monthly decrease of 103,100 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 455,700 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2]

热轧卷板周度数据（20260123） 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 150 200 250 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 305.41 -2.95 304.51 0.90 302.74 2.67 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.51 0.03 85.26 0.25 84.55 0.96 表观需求量 309.96 -4.20 310.77 -0.81 302 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of hot-rolled coils has limited relief, demand continues to weaken, the fundamentals are weak, and coil prices remain under pressure. The price is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills. The approaching major conference brings optimistic expectations [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 47,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the supply has declined from the high level, but the inventory is high and the pressure relief is limited. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.90 percentage points compared with the previous week [2] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot-rolled coils decreased by 53,600 tons compared with the previous week. Although the output of downstream cold-rolled coils has increased, the industrial contradictions are still not effectively resolved, which still easily drags down the hot-rolled coils. External demand is stable [2][3] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 55,000 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 19,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 24,500 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are running stably. The production of plate mills is weakly stable, with the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreasing by 0.50 million tons week-on-week, indicating a slight contraction in supply. Considering the approaching major events and potential production restrictions, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the short term. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils is also weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.55 million tons week-on-week, and the high-frequency trading performance is weak. Although the downstream cold-rolled production remains high and stable, indicating some demand resilience, the low domestic and foreign price difference still requires caution regarding potential foreign demand concerns. Overall, the demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the short-term production restrictions continue to have an impact. The supply-demand pattern is acceptable, providing support for prices. However, the concerns about foreign demand remain, and the supply contraction is unlikely to be sustained. The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 322.79 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.50 million tons and a month-on-month change of 19.69 million tons. The same-period value is 324.74 million tons, with a year-on-year change of -0.50 million tons [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.02%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.23 percentage points, a month-on-month change of -0.22 percentage points, and the same-period value is 82.96% [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 320.00 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.55 million tons and a month-on-month change of 15.27 million tons [2]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 83.15 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.89 million tons and a month-on-month change of 3.14 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 365.46 million tons, with a decrease of 76.35 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 79.68 million tons, with a decrease of 16.07 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The social inventory is 285.78 million tons, with a decrease of 60.28 million tons compared to the previous period [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both rising. The demand shows good resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not improved under the high supply pattern. The relative positives are cost increase and production restriction disturbances. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils will continue to fluctuate and rise. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [8] Summary by Directory Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 325.24 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.65 tons and a month-on-month increase of 2.45 tons compared with the end of last month. The output has rebounded from a low level to a new high this year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.25%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a month-on-month increase of 0.01% compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 5.95% [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 321.27 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.52 tons and a month-on-month increase of 1.27 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 2.68 tons. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 86.08 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 3.31 tons [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 361.44 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.97 tons and a month-on-month increase of 13.49 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 80.77 tons. The in-plant inventory is 78.89 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.09 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.41 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.29 tons. The social inventory is 282.55 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 5.06 tons and a month-on-month increase of 13.90 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 67.48 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - Hot-rolled coil supply and demand have both weakened, with the fundamentals deteriorating again and a slight inventory build-up. However, the overall contradiction is not significant, and strong raw materials are boosting market sentiment. It is expected that hot-rolled coil prices will maintain a high-level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [7] Group 2: Supply - The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.1749 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 36,500 tons, and a month-on-month decrease of 97,500 tons. The supply continued to contract but remained at a relatively high level for the year [2] - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 0.02 percentage points [2] Group 3: Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.1524 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,500 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 110,100 tons [2] - The weekly production of cold-rolled coils was 869,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 500 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 11,000 tons [2] Group 4: Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 3.4516 million tons, a decrease of 850,000 tons [2] - The in-plant inventory was 780,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,200 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 178,100 tons [2] - The social inventory was 2.6716 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 42,200 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 671,900 tons [2]