本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 309.61 -0.20 309.21 0.40 324.13 -14.52 高炉产能利用率（%） 87.45 1.04 85.47 1.98 85.76 1.69 表观需求量 291.31 44.58 311.41 -20.10 298.42 -7.11 热轧卷板周度数据（20260227） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 厂内库存 94.78 1.40 77.25 17.53 96.95 -2.17 社会库存 357.37 16.90 278.33 79.04 317.37 40.00 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 热轧卷板周产量（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 70 75 80 85 90 95 高炉产能利用率（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 250 270 290 310 330 350 热轧卷板表观需求量（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 冷轧卷板周产量 ...

热轧卷板周度数据（20260213） 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 307.76 -1.40 309.21 -1.45 322.64 -14.88 高炉产能利用率（%） 86.41 0.72 85.47 0.94 84.64 1.77 表观需求量 296.19 -9.35 311.41 -15.22 302.56 -6.37 冷轧卷板周产量 88.68 -0.20 88.42 0.26 85.79 2.89 总库存 370.77 11.57 355.58 15.19 336.51 34.26 厂内库存 79.85 1.10 77.25 2.60 79.55 0.30 社会库存 290.92 10.47 278.33 12.59 256.96 33.96 热轧卷板供需两端延续季节性走弱 ...

Group 1 - The core disturbance in January industry data is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which significantly affects production, consumption, and export data compared to the previous lunar year [1][5][12] - The production sector shows an overall weakness compared to the same lunar period last year, with notable contraction in construction-related segments, while manufacturing exhibits divergence in performance [1][12] - Consumption patterns reveal significant declines in real estate transaction areas, while overall commodity consumption remains relatively stable, with variations in service consumption [1][13] Group 2 - The impact of the Spring Festival timing extends beyond January, potentially suppressing March production and investment data during the peak season [2][20] - The construction sector's new project initiation is expected to continue its downward trend due to ongoing inventory reduction policies, which will affect the overall recovery pace post-holiday [3][20] - Despite a more proactive fiscal policy and faster issuance of special bonds, the recovery in production and investment post-holiday is anticipated to be limited compared to previous years [3][20] Group 3 - In the energy and resources sector, coal supply constraints due to production cuts and holiday shutdowns have led to price fluctuations, while metal demand shows improvement [4][25] - The real estate sector remains under pressure with low transaction volumes and investment levels, impacting demand for construction materials [4][34] - The financial sector shows high activity in the A-share market, with insurance premium income experiencing a year-on-year decline, while new credit issuance exceeds expectations [4][34] Group 4 - The manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth in machinery and heavy truck sales, benefiting from domestic equipment renewal policies and demand from emerging markets [4][34] - Consumer spending remains stable overall, but demand for durable goods is under pressure due to high base effects and policy rollbacks [4][34] - The TMT sector is experiencing multiple catalysts from both industry and policy perspectives, while the new energy sector sees a decline in domestic sales but strong export growth [4][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have changed, with inventory destocking narrowing. The production of plate mills has stabilized. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils has increased by 38,000 tons week-on-week, rising again and remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory level is high, and the supply pressure persists. The demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly week-on-week, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold-rolled products. However, the accumulation of contradictions needs to be guarded against, and the external export demand is average. The demand resilience needs further tracking. Currently, both supply and demand of hot-rolled coils remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. However, there are concerns about demand. If the demand weakens, it may intensify industrial contradictions, and the price is likely to be under pressure. The positive factor is that the commodity sentiment is good, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalog Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 3.0921 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,000 tons, a monthly increase of 47,000 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 53,200 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a monthly increase of 0.21 percentage points compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 1.23 percentage points compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 884,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 100 tons, a monthly increase of 20,500 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 34,800 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 3.1141 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 14,500 tons, a monthly increase of 6,400 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 103,300 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 3.5558 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 153,800 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 456,700 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The in-plant inventory is 772,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,100 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,700 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 1,000 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The social inventory is 2.7833 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,100 tons, a monthly decrease of 103,100 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 455,700 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2]

热轧卷板周度数据（20260123） 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 150 200 250 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 305.41 -2.95 304.51 0.90 302.74 2.67 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.51 0.03 85.26 0.25 84.55 0.96 表观需求量 309.96 -4.20 310.77 -0.81 302 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since achieving a net steel export in 2006, China's steel product export volume as a proportion of the global total has been on an upward trend. In recent years, due to tariff disturbances, the domestic steel export market has been expanding, with the export scale increasing year by year. The export volume exceeded 100 million tons in 2024 and reached a new high in 2025 [5][9]. - In 2025, steel exports showed several characteristics: a shift in the export variety structure with the increase coming from long - products, diversification of export countries with an increasing share of emerging markets, and a situation of increasing volume but decreasing price, indicating that the strong steel export was mainly supported by low - price advantages [5][12][16]. - Currently, the domestic price advantage remains, and there is an increase in overseas demand, so the resilience of steel exports still exists. However, there are also more challenges in the future, such as intensified trade frictions, domestic policy adjustments, the EU carbon tariff policy, the recovery of overseas supply, and the pressure of RMB appreciation [5][23][26]. - In summary, weak domestic demand forced steel mills to increase exports, and with good price advantages, steel exports in 2025 were strong, alleviating domestic pressure. However, with the increase of challenges, the resilience of steel exports will be impacted, and the direct export volume may decline from its peak [5][44][47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Exports Reached a New High - China is the world's largest steel producer, and its steel export pattern affects the global steel product trade pattern. In 2025, despite trade barriers, the steel export volume continued to grow. The cumulative export volume of steel products in 2025 was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons or 7.50%. Meanwhile, steel imports remained sluggish, with an import volume of only 6.06 million tons in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 75,000 tons or 11%. The export of steel billets also performed well in 2025, with the cumulative export volume from January to November reaching 1.33801 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 782,000 tons or 140.64%. The combined export increase of steel and steel billets was 1.7 million tons, effectively alleviating the weak domestic demand pressure [9]. - In 2025, steel exports had the following characteristics: - **Shift in export variety structure**: The export increase came from long - products. Due to the downturn in the real estate market, the surplus of domestic construction steel (long - products) increased, and exports became an important factor in adjusting domestic supply - demand balance. From January to November, the cumulative export volumes of bars, sections, and wire rods increased by 527,000 tons, 183,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 43.95%, 34.33%, and 12.13%. In contrast, the export growth rate of plates slowed down, and the export of ordinary plates such as hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils was directly affected by anti - dumping measures [12]. - **Diversification of export countries**: Traditional markets were under pressure due to anti - dumping policies, but emerging markets were rising. Southeast Asian countries, the Middle East, Africa, and South America all showed an increase in steel imports from China [16]. - **Increasing volume but decreasing price**: In 2025, the total steel export volume was 119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.50%, while the export value was 82.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.26%, indicating that the strong steel export was mainly supported by low - price advantages [19]. 3.2 Steel Exports Face More Challenges - **Reasons for the high - growth of steel exports in 2025**: On the one hand, the intensification of domestic supply - demand contradictions forced steel mills to increase exports. On the other hand, there was a significant cost advantage, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets was the core driving force for steel exports. Currently, the resilience of steel exports still exists because the domestic price advantage remains, and there is an increase in overseas steel demand. The World Steel Association estimates that global steel demand will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026, reaching 1.773 billion tons [23]. - **Challenges in 2026**: - **Intensified trade frictions**: In recent years, the EU, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries have frequently launched "double - anti" investigations and imposed high tariffs on Chinese steel products, resulting in a decline in China's export share in these markets. In 2024, there were 33 original investigations on trade remedies for Chinese steel products, and in 2025, there were more than 150 investigations or arbitrations. In 2026, as the anti - dumping cases from 2024 - 2025 enter the final ruling stage, China's steel exports will face more extensive trade resistance [26]. - **Domestic export policy adjustment**: On December 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to adjust the "Catalogue of Goods Subject to Export License Administration (2025)", including some steel products with 300 customs commodity codes in the catalogue. It is difficult to assess the actual impact of this policy on exports for now. If strictly implemented, large steel enterprises may be less affected, while small and medium - sized enterprises may face restrictions [29]. - **EU carbon tariff policy**: The EU carbon tariff (CBAM) officially started to be levied on January 1, 2026. Once the free quota is completely removed, the CBAM cost of exporting one ton of steel to the EU will increase by 140 - 160 euros, eroding the profit space of enterprises. The implementation of CBAM will significantly weaken China's price advantage in steel exports, and Chinese steel products will face a competitive situation of "being attacked from both inside and outside" in the EU market. In addition, the compliance threshold has been greatly increased, and the short - term export process will be blocked [31]. - **Recovery of overseas supply**: From January to November 2025, the crude steel output of overseas countries (excluding China) was 766.888 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.798 million tons or 0.24%. The emerging markets of India and Southeast Asia maintained high - growth, and the production capacities of Turkey and Iran were recovering. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar credit and the pressure of RMB appreciation will also suppress domestic steel exports [35]. 3.3 Conclusion - China's steel exports have been increasing year by year. In 2025, steel exports reached a new high, showing characteristics such as a shift in the export variety structure, diversification of export countries, and increasing volume but decreasing price. Currently, the resilience of steel exports still exists, but in the future, there will be more challenges, and the direct export volume may decline from its peak [45][47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the fundamentals are operating smoothly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and prices are likely to come under pressure. In the short term, the price trend will maintain a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 303.36 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.15 tons. The supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is significantly higher than in previous years, resulting in large supply pressure and potential downward pressure on steel prices [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.56 percentage points [2]. Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot-rolled coils is 309.38 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.04 tons. The demand shows some resilience. The high output of downstream cold-rolled products provides support for the demand for hot-rolled coils, but there are concerns as contradictions in the cold-rolled market are accumulating and exports are average [2][3]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 88.67 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.17 tons, but still at a high level [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 362.11 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.02 tons, and the inventory reduction has expanded [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 76.53 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.79 tons [2]. - The social inventory is 285.58 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.23 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has changed little. The supply pressure has not been alleviated and continues to put pressure on steel prices. The demand has weakened, but the high - level cold - rolled production provides some support. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 305.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.00 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 88.84 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.47 tons [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 308.34 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 tons. The daily high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. Although the high - level cold - rolled production supports the demand, the industrial contradictions are accumulating, and the export performance is average, so there are concerns about demand [2][3] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 368.13 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 tons. The in - plant inventory is 77.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.00 tons. The social inventory is 290.81 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 tons [2]

Group 1 - The company held its 18th meeting of the 9th Board of Directors on December 25, 2025, with all 9 directors present, confirming the meeting's legality and effectiveness [2] - The board approved the proposal for a simplified procedure to issue shares to specific investors, with 9 votes in favor and none against [3][5] - The company will issue shares based on the final bidding results, which will be confirmed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3][5] Group 2 - The board approved the signing of subscription agreements with specific investors, including Nord Fund Management Co., Ltd. and several other investment firms [6][8] - The board confirmed the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the fundraising prospectus for the stock issuance [8][10] - The board approved the updated feasibility analysis report for the use of funds raised from the stock issuance [14][16] Group 3 - The company plans to use the raised funds for the "2800mm high-quality thick plate technology upgrade project," which aligns with its long-term strategic goals [30][31] - The company has established a comprehensive human resources management system and possesses a skilled workforce to support the project [32][33] - The company has a strong technical foundation and partnerships with universities for product development, ensuring the project meets industry standards [34][35] Group 4 - The company has a solid market presence, with products sold in various regions, including East Asia, South Asia, and Europe, and has seen significant growth in specific product categories [36] - The company is committed to ensuring the effective use of raised funds and has implemented measures to mitigate the risk of immediate return dilution for shareholders [37][38] - The company has established a cash dividend policy to protect investor interests and ensure ongoing returns [41]

降13.69万吨，高频成交同样低位运行，均降至近年来同期低位， 且主要下游冷轧产量在回落，外需表现一般，热卷需求韧性趋弱。 目前来看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库 存高位去化有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政策利好预期，预 计热卷价格延续震荡寻底态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 150 200 250 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 热轧卷板周度数据（20251219） 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 291.91 -16.80 319.01 -27.10 306.09 -14.18 高炉产能利用率（%） 84.93 -0.99 87.98 -3.05 87.80 -2.87 表观需求量 298.28 -13.69 320.22 -21.94 315.60 -17.32 冷轧卷板周产量 86.09 -0.22 84.76 ...