热轧卷板周度数据（20251010） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 本周值 | | | 环比变化 | | 上月末值 | | | | 本月变化 | | | 同期值 | | | | | | 同期变化 | | 供给 | | | | | | 周度产量 | | | 323.29 | | -1.40 | | | 324.69 | | | | -1.40 | | | 308.19 | | | 15.10 | | | | | | | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | | | | 90.55 | | -0.10 | | | 90.65 | | | | -0.10 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August 2025, hot-rolled coil futures rose significantly compared to the previous month and then slightly corrected this month. Overall, the spot price of the hot-rolled coil market reached a high and then declined. The supply and demand situation was relatively healthy. Although the inventory increased slightly, the pressure was not too great. The demand for hot-rolled coils in finished products was better than that of building materials, mainly because the terminal demand for plates in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships was relatively strong, which could drive up the demand for hot-rolled coils [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reached a high at the beginning of August and then declined, closing with a negative line. The main contract HC2601 dropped 51 points. After a short-term rapid increase, the price fell and finally closed at 3,346 yuan/ton, a 1.5% decline from the July price [3]. - **Variety Market**: There are 12 listed contracts for hot-rolled coil futures. Except for the 2509 contract, the price spreads between other contracts have narrowed. The far-month contracts had relatively large fluctuations in price changes, with a decline ranging from 28 to 64 points. The trading volume of the main contract HC2601 was 1,166,633 lots, a month-on-month increase of approximately 696,000 lots [6][7]. - **Related Market**: In August, the price of hot-rolled coils declined following the decline in raw material prices. There were signs of a marginal weakening of coking coal and coke, and market confidence was insufficient, resulting in an overall decline in the black sector prices in August [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, in August, the closing price of the active contract hot-rolled coil HC2601 futures was 3,346 yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil Q235B 4.75mm was 3,380 yuan/ton, and the basis between Shanghai hot-rolled coil futures and spot was 34 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 14 yuan/ton [10]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In August, the number of registered warehouse receipts for hot-rolled coils decreased significantly compared to July, from a maximum of 80,166 lots to 25,059 lots as of August 29. The decrease from the beginning to the end of the month was 32,112 lots. According to the Wande Warehouse Receipt Daily Report, among the 18 warehouses, the largest changes were concentrated in Jiangsu warehouses, while the other warehouses were relatively stable [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: WIND data shows that the overall supply of the domestic hot-rolled coil market remained at a relatively high level in August. From a weekly perspective, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils fluctuated around 3.2 million tons, without significant increases or decreases, indicating that steel mills maintained a relatively stable production rhythm for this product. In addition, the supply of other major plate categories, such as cold-rolled coils and medium-thick plates, was also at a high level year-on-year, reflecting that the production side of the entire plate sector remained strong in August. However, affected by the seasonal off-peak demand in August, the actual downstream procurement demand cooled down, and the supply side also made small adjustments according to the demand changes, ultimately showing a slight month-on-month decline. The overall supply and demand relationship was relatively well-matched. In terms of inventory, the hot-rolled coil inventory increased slightly in August. Considering the changes in supply and demand during the same period, although the supply remained high but then declined slightly, and the demand was in the off-peak season but did not shrink significantly, the gap between the two was relatively limited, and no obvious supply-demand imbalance occurred. The slight increase in inventory was more of a normal fluctuation due to seasonal factors and did not cause significant pressure on the market [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coil futures had a similar trend to related industrial varieties such as rebar. From the disk, the HC2601 contract was running below the 10-day moving average and close to the lower track of the BOLL, indicating a weak state [13][14]. 3.4 Market Outlook In August 2025, the hot-rolled coil plate market showed the fundamental characteristics of "high supply, weakening demand resilience, and inventory accumulation", with prices fluctuating downward and both the futures and spot markets weakening synchronously. The short-term supply-demand contradiction and cost support are in intensified competition. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom in September. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of the peak demand season and the implementation of policy production restrictions [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are running stably. The production of plate mills is weakly stable, with the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreasing by 0.50 million tons week-on-week, indicating a slight contraction in supply. Considering the approaching major events and potential production restrictions, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the short term. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils is also weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.55 million tons week-on-week, and the high-frequency trading performance is weak. Although the downstream cold-rolled production remains high and stable, indicating some demand resilience, the low domestic and foreign price difference still requires caution regarding potential foreign demand concerns. Overall, the demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the short-term production restrictions continue to have an impact. The supply-demand pattern is acceptable, providing support for prices. However, the concerns about foreign demand remain, and the supply contraction is unlikely to be sustained. The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 322.79 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.50 million tons and a month-on-month change of 19.69 million tons. The same-period value is 324.74 million tons, with a year-on-year change of -0.50 million tons [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.02%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.23 percentage points, a month-on-month change of -0.22 percentage points, and the same-period value is 82.96% [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 320.00 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.55 million tons and a month-on-month change of 15.27 million tons [2]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 83.15 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.89 million tons and a month-on-month change of 3.14 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 365.46 million tons, with a decrease of 76.35 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 79.68 million tons, with a decrease of 16.07 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The social inventory is 285.78 million tons, with a decrease of 60.28 million tons compared to the previous period [2].

Core Viewpoint - Anyang Iron and Steel has terminated its major asset restructuring plan due to historical issues with certain assets of Henan Angang Group Wuyang Mining Co., Ltd, and has shifted to selling subsidiary equity to its controlling shareholder, Anyang Group, to expedite the transaction process and improve the company's financial situation [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Restructuring - The company announced the termination of the major asset restructuring plan and will instead sell all equity of Yongtong Company and Yuhe Company to its controlling shareholder, Angang Group, for cash based on the final valuation as of June 30, 2025 [2]. - The original asset exchange plan was complicated by historical issues with Wuyang Mining's assets, making it difficult to proceed as planned, leading to the change in strategy [2][3]. - The new plan is expected to optimize the company's asset structure and improve liquidity, thereby enhancing operational conditions [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Anyang Iron and Steel reported a total revenue of 15.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.09%, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.0583 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to market downturns and a decrease in product prices [4].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both rising. The demand shows good resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not improved under the high supply pattern. The relative positives are cost increase and production restriction disturbances. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils will continue to fluctuate and rise. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [8] Summary by Directory Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 325.24 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.65 tons and a month-on-month increase of 2.45 tons compared with the end of last month. The output has rebounded from a low level to a new high this year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.25%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a month-on-month increase of 0.01% compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 5.95% [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 321.27 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.52 tons and a month-on-month increase of 1.27 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 2.68 tons. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 86.08 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 3.31 tons [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 361.44 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.97 tons and a month-on-month increase of 13.49 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 80.77 tons. The in-plant inventory is 78.89 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.09 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.41 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.29 tons. The social inventory is 282.55 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 5.06 tons and a month-on-month increase of 13.90 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 67.48 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has improved. The production of plate mills has stabilized. With decent profit per ton of the product, the supply is expected to stabilize and rebound. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils has improved, but the improvement's sustainability is in doubt. The inventory increase has narrowed, but the fundamentals are unlikely to see substantial improvement. Due to the significant cost increase, the downside space is limited. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue the volatile trend, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 315.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons, and a decrease of 7.20 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 14.22 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of last month, and an increase of 0.61 percentage points compared with the same period [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 314.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.25 million tons from the end of last month, and an increase of 26.55 million tons compared with the same period. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 86.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the end of last month, and an increase of 6.05 million tons compared with the same period [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 357.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 million tons, an increase of 9.52 million tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 93.06 million tons compared with the same period. The in - plant inventory is 79.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.10 million tons, an increase of 0.68 million tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 11.90 million tons compared with the same period. The social inventory is 277.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26 million tons, an increase of 8.84 million tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 81.16 million tons compared with the same period [2].

Group 1: Historical Insights - The previous supply-side reform period (2016-2017) saw significant pressure on consumption profits due to insufficient transmission of cost pressures from upstream resources and raw materials, leading to a general decline in profit growth across the consumption sector [1][12][21] - During the 2016-2017 period, despite strong demand-side policies, the ability of the consumption sector to pass on cost increases was limited, resulting in a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1][12][17] - Consumer confidence index rose from 103.7 in December 2015 to 122.6 in December 2017, indicating a strong demand environment during the previous reform [12][17] Group 2: Current "Anti-Internal Competition" Insights - The current "anti-internal competition" policy is expected to impose more stringent constraints on supply, particularly in sectors like automotive and express delivery, which may stabilize prices more quickly compared to the previous reform period [1][21] - The consumption sector is facing a more severe demand-side challenge now, with consumer confidence at low levels and growth relying more on "value-for-money" rather than brand premium pricing [1][21] - In July, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but the growth rate significantly slowed from June's 13.3% [1][21] Group 3: Sector-Specific Observations - In the energy and resources sector, coal demand is expected to rise during peak seasons, with July's domestic raw coal production at 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22][23] - The real estate sector experienced a significant decline in transaction volume, with July's average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities down 32.3% month-on-month and 18.6% year-on-year [35][37] - The manufacturing sector showed resilience, with strong performance in machinery and equipment exports, and heavy truck sales performing well [5][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils continues to weaken, inventory growth has expanded. Due to plate mill maintenance, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7900 tons week - on - week, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked as the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils continues to decline, with the weekly apparent demand down 13790 tons week - on - week, high - frequency transactions are at a low level, and the cold - rolled production of downstream industries has declined from a high level, weakening domestic demand resilience. The convergence of domestic and foreign price differences and tariff policy disturbances are fermenting external demand concerns. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continue to weaken, inventory continues to increase and the increase is expanding. Under the weak reality, hot - rolled coil prices are prone to decline, but there are still resistance to decline due to continuous production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that hot - rolled coil prices will continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to steel [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3.1489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7900 tons, a decrease of 7900 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 113300 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 3.07 percentage points compared with the same period [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3.0621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13790 tons, a decrease of 13790 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 77000 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 86050 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1130 tons, a decrease of 1130 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 4920 tons compared with the same period [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3.5663 million tons, an increase of 86800 tons week - on - week, an increase of 86800 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 807300 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils is 77880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1420 tons, a decrease of 1420 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 10600 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 2.7875 million tons, an increase of 101000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 101000 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 701300 tons compared with the same period [2].

Group 1 - The stock price of Liugang Co., Ltd. was reported at 6.06 yuan as of August 7, 2025, with a decrease of 0.15 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 863,600 hands, and the transaction amount reached 518 million yuan [1] - Liugang Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in steel smelting, processing, and sales, with products including medium and heavy plates, hot-rolled coils, and cold-rolled coils. The company is located in Liuzhou, Guangxi, an important steel production base in South China [1] - On the evening of August 7, the company announced plans to raise no more than 300 million yuan through a simplified procedure for a specific audience. The funds will be used entirely for the high-quality technical upgrade and transformation project of the 2800mm medium and heavy plate production line [1] - The project aims to upgrade existing production lines, including the renovation of heating furnaces and the addition of slab treatment lines, with an expected construction period of 18 months. The company stated that the completion of the technical transformation will enhance product quality and expand market share in sectors such as construction machinery and wind power [1] Group 2 - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 33.5877 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 2.9004 million yuan over the past five days [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for a specific stock issuance aimed at raising funds for a high-quality technology upgrade project, while also addressing the potential dilution of immediate returns for existing shareholders [1][6][12]. Financial Impact Analysis - The company estimates that the total funds raised from the issuance will be 300 million yuan, with the number of shares issued not exceeding 30% of the total shares prior to the issuance [1]. - The projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 340 million yuan and 400 million yuan, representing an increase of 530% to 641% compared to the same period last year [2]. - Different scenarios were analyzed regarding the impact of the stock issuance on key financial metrics, including basic and diluted earnings per share [4][5]. Issuance Necessity and Reasonableness - The funds raised will be used for the "2800mm high-quality medium-thick plate technology upgrade project," which aligns with the company's long-term strategic goals and national industrial development direction [6][7]. Relationship with Existing Business - The company operates in the coke, sintering, iron, and steel smelting sectors, with a steel rolling capacity of 20.8 million tons, and the new project will enhance product quality and competitiveness [7][8]. Measures to Mitigate Dilution Risk - The company plans to implement various measures to enhance operational performance and ensure effective use of the raised funds, aiming to minimize the dilution of immediate returns for shareholders [9][11]. Commitments from Major Stakeholders - The controlling shareholder and management have made commitments to ensure the effective execution of the return compensation measures, emphasizing their dedication to protecting shareholder interests [12][13].