免责声明 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3300 | 3280 | 20 | 174 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 10 | 44 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3260 | 20 | 154 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3125 | 3084 | 41 | 175 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3151 | 3113 | 38 | 149 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3126 | 3095 | 31 | 174 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | -8 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3180 | 10 | -98 | | | 热卷现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, given the high steel inventories and winter storage pressure, the iron - water production of steel mills in the January contract is likely to decline. The iron element supply on the January contract is becoming looser, and it is expected to be weaker than the carbon element. It is recommended to hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage strategy, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 and 3200 for rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively [2]. - For the iron ore industry, due to weakening steel prices and declining steel mill profits, the demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. With the supply being relatively loose, it is advisable to short iron ore futures at high prices and consider the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [5]. - For the coking coal and coke industries, the overall coal - coke market is in a tight pattern. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 in the range of 1250 - 1350 and long on coke 2601 in the range of 1700 - 1850, and adopt the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy while guarding against the negative feedback risk from falling steel prices [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased. The basis varied by region and contract [2]. - Hot - rolled coil: Spot prices in East China rose by 10 yuan/ton, while those in North and South China remained stable. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace and converter rebar decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions declined [2]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline. The output of five major steel products decreased by 18.5 to 856.7, a 2.1% decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6, a 0.7% decline [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.1 to 10.8, a 23.8% increase. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 49.5 to 866.9, a 5.4% decline [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. The basis of the 01 contract for some types changed, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [5]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2, a 14.8% decline. The global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0, a 4.5% decline [5]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 184.8 to 14898.83, a 1.3% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 160.1 to 66006, a 1.8% increase [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industries Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. For coke, the 01 and 05 contract prices also decreased [8]. Supply - The coking coal production of Fenwei sample mines and the daily average output of the full - sample coking plants decreased. The coke production of 247 steel mills decreased [8]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline [8]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of various entities changed, with some going into de - stocking and some increasing. The coke inventory also had different trends among different entities [8].

Group 1: Steel Industry Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the steel industry report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the apparent demand for steel has recovered, but there was significant inventory accumulation in the plate market. Steel mills need to cut production to ease inventory pressure, and the price decline has already factored in the expected supply surplus. The carbon element cost on the cost side is supported, while the iron element cost may decline due to the expected drop in molten iron. Steel prices have fallen significantly, compressing steel mill profits. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively and enter a sideways consolidation trend. Given the expected reduction in coal mine production and the strengthening of thermal coal, the carbon element is stronger than the iron element. A long - carbon and short - iron arbitrage can be considered, such as a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil operation. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to narrow [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed mixed trends in different regions and contracts. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, while the 01 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 3037 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 3204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price remained unchanged at 2920 yuan, and the slab price was stable at 3730 yuan. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 7 yuan to 3300 yuan, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 13 yuan to 3153 yuan. Profits in different regions and for different products showed varying degrees of decline [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.6 to 240.9, a decline of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 6.4 to 857.0, a decline of 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.5 to 1582.3, a decline of 1.2%. The rebar inventory decreased by 18.6 to 641.1, a decline of 2.8%, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.3 to 419.2, an increase of 1.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.5, a decline of 6.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 124.0 to 875.4, an increase of 16.5%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 66.6 to 219.8, an increase of 43.5%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.5 to 315.6, an increase of 7.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the iron ore industry report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, iron ore futures continued to decline in a sideways trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, the molten iron output decreased from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand weakened. In the future, due to the weak operation of steel prices, the steel mill profitability will continue to decline, and the weak demand will force iron ore to operate weakly. The iron ore market is shifting from a state of slightly tight balance to oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades, with a reference range of 730 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended, and it is advisable to buy out - of - the - money put options on the 2601 iron ore contract at high prices [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, while the 01 - contract basis of some varieties increased. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, an increase of 2.4%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.0, a decrease of 2.3% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 437.1 to 3045.8, an increase of 16.8%, and the global weekly shipment volume decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5, a decrease of 2.2%. The weekly average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 241.0, a decrease of 0.2%, and the weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 20.7 to 315.7, a decrease of 6.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 192.1 to 14278.27, an increase of 1.4%, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 63.5 to 8982.7, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the coking coal and coke industry report. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: Last week, coke futures showed a sideways upward trend. The spot market had a second - round price increase proposed by mainstream coking enterprises. On the supply side, coking production decreased due to losses. On the demand side, the molten iron output of steel mills decreased from a high level, steel prices weakened, and steel mill profits declined. In the inventory aspect, coking plants and steel mills reduced inventory, while ports accumulated inventory. Recently, production cuts at Mongolian coal mines, rising prices in Shanxi auctions, and the impact of mine accidents have led to concerns about supply, causing coal - coke prices to rebound from the bottom. Speculative investors are advised to go long on the 2601 coke contract at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and an arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - coke can be considered [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, coking coal futures also showed a sideways upward trend. The spot price in Shanxi recovered, and the prices of some coal types rebounded significantly. After the holiday, the domestic coking coal market began to rebound after a slight decline. On the supply side, although main - producing area coal mines resumed production after the holiday, recent mine accidents have led to expectations of supply reduction. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased slightly, and coking plant operations decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. In the inventory aspect, coal mines, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills accumulated inventory, while ports and border crossings reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract at low prices in the short term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and an arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - coke can be considered [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: For coke, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan, and the 01 - contract price increased by 4 yuan to 1676 yuan. For coking coal, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1300 yuan, and the 01 - contract price decreased by 7 yuan to 1179 yuan [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.8 to 65.3, a decrease of 1.3%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 241.0, a decrease of 0.2%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 18.2 to 854.9, an increase of 2.2%, and the clean coal output increasing by 11.8 to 438.2, an increase of 2.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 241.0, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.8 to 65.3, a decrease of 1.3%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 241.0, a decrease of 0.2% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 17.9 to 891.9, a decrease of 2.0%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and the available days increased to varying degrees [6].