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多空僵持,煤焦延续震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 10:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On November 13, the main coke contract closed at 1,686 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.30%. The position of the main contract was 37,800 lots, a decrease of 164 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,540 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91%. This week, the industrial game intensified, and the fourth round of spot price increase for coke was blocked. Overall, there are still differences on the raw material supply side of coke. Coking coal has seen a correction at the upper edge of the oscillation range, dragging down the coke futures trend. The subsequent focus is on the actual supply of coking coal at the end of the year [6][33]. - **Coking Coal**: On November 13, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,214 points, with an intraday decline of 0.29%. The position of the main contract was 592,100 lots, a decrease of 991 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,385 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.5%. As macro - disturbances ease, coking coal has returned to the fundamental game. Currently, the market still has differences on the end - of - year coking coal supply. On the one hand, safety inspections, anti - involution, and the expectation of production cuts after coal mines reach their annual production targets provide supply - side support for coal prices. On the other hand, the energy supply guarantee during the heating season has raised market concerns. Overall, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears. The main coking coal contract has seen a correction at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, and the subsequent focus remains on the actual supply of coking coal [7][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - **US Government "Shutdown" Ended**: On November 12, local time, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the 43 - day federal government "shutdown". The bill will provide continuous funding for the federal government, allowing most government agencies to obtain operating funds until January 30, 2026 [8]. - **Stable Price of Coking Coal in Jinzhong Market**: On November 13, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market remained stable. The ex - factory price of coking coal for quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Jiexiu (A≤9.5, S≤0.75, V≤28, G≥65, CSR≥60, MT≤8) was 1,220 yuan/ton, including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (Flat - price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.18% | - 4.14% | - 11.96% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (Ex - warehouse) | 1,540 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | - 0.65% | - 4.94% | - 10.47% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,385 yuan/ton | - 3.48% | - 0.36% | +17.37% | - 2.46% | | Jingtang Port Australian - produced Coking Coal | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.99% | - 2.41% | +8.72% | - 2.99% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced Coking Coal | 1,830 yuan/ton | +1.67% | +5.17% | +19.61% | +7.65% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,686.0 yuan/ton | - 0.30% | 1,698.0 yuan/ton | 1,674.0 yuan/ton | 13,768 | - 312 | 37,775 | - 164 | | Coking Coal | | 1,214.0 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | 1,224.5 yuan/ton | 1,202.0 yuan/ton | 572,483 | 20,703 | 592,106 | - 991 | [13] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [26][27][32]. Market Outlook The analysis and outlook for coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the importance of the actual supply of coking coal at the end of the year [33][34].