1月5日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1078.5元。截止收盘，焦煤主力合约报 1080.5元，跌幅3.14%。 焦煤期货主力跌超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 正信期货 关注焦煤05合约逢低做多机会 兴业期货 焦煤关注后续下游采购力度 国投安信期货 焦煤日内价格震荡下行 元旦期间煤矿开工情况如期走弱，而节后炼焦煤竞拍流拍率较之节前有所下降，坑口成交氛围边际好 转，钢焦企业推进适当补库，但大范围冬储暂未正式开启，矿端去库节奏并不显著，或限制煤价上方空 间，关注后续下游采购力度。 国投安信期货：焦煤日内价格震荡下行 日内价格震荡下行。炼焦煤矿产量略微下降，年末部分煤矿因安全生产及年度生产任务已完成等因素， 存在减产停产。现货竞拍成交尚可，成交价格小幅抬升，终端库存略微增加。炼焦煤总库存略微增加， 产端库存略微下降。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水季节性低位，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性， 钢材利润水平稍有修复，对于原材料压价情绪仍浓。焦炭盘面升水，焦煤盘面贴水，价格对贴水修复后 仍面临一定基本面压力，不过市场对刺激政策有一定预期，盘面资金博弈加剧。 正信期货：关注 ...

焦煤行业深度研究框架及最新观点 20250922 摘要 焦煤价格受供需、政策及环保督查影响显著，7 月环保督查导致供应减 少，推动价格上涨，但目前上涨或接近尾声。 焦煤产业链中，焦煤主要用于钢铁冶炼，每吨生铁消耗 0.5 吨焦炭和 1.6 吨铁矿石，终端产品广泛应用于地产、基建等领域。 国内焦煤供应占比 80%，受能源政策和环保督查影响；山西是主要产区， 蒙古国是最大进口来源国，占比接近 50%。 焦化厂和钢厂是焦煤主要需求方，需求受地产、基建和制造业周期影响， 短期受钢厂利润和环保限产扰动。 焦煤库存分布在上游矿山、中游港口及下游钢厂和焦化厂，上游矿山库 存对价格影响较大，下游补库是近期盘面上行的重要原因。 近期焦煤期货价格波动剧烈，受政策情绪、现货市场降温、下游钢材压 力增加等因素影响，短期内上涨乏力，1,250 元是重要压力位。 国内焦煤生产维持年内低位，预计四季度温和恢复；进口煤保持高位运 行；国庆节前下游企业进行补库，但钢厂库存谨慎。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）焦煤市场价格波动的主要原因是什么？ 今年（2025 年），焦煤市场价格经历了显著波动。年初，港口主焦煤价格在 1,200 元至 1,500 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news discusses the ongoing decline in Chinese coking coal futures prices, driven by the resumption of mining activities, and raises questions about the potential downward price space in the future [1] Group 1: Industry Analysis - The resumption of mining operations has led to a continued decrease in Chinese coking coal futures prices [1] - The article suggests that there may still be room for further price declines in the future [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 794.0 yuan, and closing at 785.0 yuan with a rise of 1.49% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of coking coal prices, with expectations of limited rebound potential due to strict safety and environmental regulations leading to a decline in production [2] - The coking coal market is currently characterized by cautious purchasing behavior, with expectations of a fourth round of price reductions in the coke market [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context includes geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel and Iran, which have influenced market dynamics [3] - Coking coal production capacity utilization has been declining for five consecutive weeks, indicating a marginal improvement in supply conditions [3] - Technical analysis suggests that the coking coal futures are expected to operate within a range, with key resistance levels at 800 and 830 yuan, and support levels at 760 yuan [4]