华联期货表示，短期铁水产量维持高位，节后终端钢材需求能否承接存在隐忧，若成材库存矛盾加剧， 双焦反弹空间将受到下游现实不佳的压制。操作上焦煤2601合约区间操作，参考运行区间1100-1250元/ 吨。 10月17日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘红。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1190.5元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，焦煤主力最高触及1194.5元，下方探低1172.0元，涨幅达3.7%。 目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中辉期货指出，煤矿产量回升，与去年同期相当，进口维持同期高位，供应边际有继续改善的预期。铁 水产量绝对水平较高，原料需求有保证。短期供需相对平衡，矛盾不大。短期或有反弹，中期维持区间 运行。 瑞达期货分析称，宏观面，二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日在北京召开。基本面，矿端开工率回 升，矿端暂无库存压力，本周洗煤厂开工率回升，进口累计增速连续3个月呈现下降，库存后续有季节 性回升趋势。技术方面，日K位于20和60均线上方，操作上，震荡运行对待，请投资者注意风险控制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in coking coal, with prices experiencing fluctuations and an overall upward movement [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for coking coal opened at 1200.0 CNY/ton and reached a high of 1246.5 CNY, with a low of 1195.0 CNY, resulting in a price increase of 5.33% [1] - The current trend for coking coal is characterized by a strong performance, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Dayue Futures suggests that high iron and steel production maintains a strong demand for coking coal, but the recent price drop in coke has pressured profits for coking enterprises, leading to a cautious market outlook [1] - Zhengxin Futures notes that with the recovery in supply and a focus on essential purchases after previous stockpiling, the market is observing a potential shift in procurement strategies based on price movements [1] - Hualian Futures highlights that the recovery in production rates across the industry chain supports strong demand for raw materials, while supply disruptions from coal mines may limit future production capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in coking coal, with significant price fluctuations observed on August 5th [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures opened at 1140.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1157.5 CNY and a low of 1111.0 CNY, with an approximate increase of 3.66% [1] - The overall market performance for coking coal is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating robust trading activity [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic coking coal production has decreased month-on-month, and inventory levels have also declined, contributing to a stable raw material demand despite a reduction in iron output [1] - Market sentiment around anti-involution policies has cooled, suggesting potential for short-term fluctuations following previous declines [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - If strict enforcement of overproduction checks in coal mines continues, supply contraction expectations may persist, keeping coking coal prices strong [1] - However, an increase in imported Mongolian coal or a peak and subsequent decline in steel mill iron output could pressure price increases [1] - Investors are advised to closely monitor fundamental and policy developments, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook on price trends [1]

Group 1 - The coal futures market, particularly coking coal, is experiencing a strong upward trend with a price increase of 3.09%, reaching a high of 854.0 yuan/ton [1] - Supply-side expectations are tightening due to reduced production during the safety month and anticipated capacity clearance, leading to improved market sentiment despite weak demand [1] - The overall market for coking coal is expected to maintain a stable yet slightly strong performance in the short term, with no significant changes in the supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - The steel, coking coal, and coke markets currently show no significant contradictions in supply and demand fundamentals, with low inventory levels being highlighted [2] - There is caution regarding potential price increases, as past experiences suggest that without concrete measures, the market may revert to uncertainties surrounding raw material production cuts [2] - Investors are advised to approach the current price increases with rationality, avoiding excessive speculation and waiting for policy-driven corrections [2]