该机构表示，预计2026年煤价底部抬升将带动行业均价中枢上移，上市公司业绩或跟随煤价有所改善， 红利龙头若维持分红比例不变，股息率也有小幅提升。预计板块2026年会出现阶段性行情，行情驱动或 来自于红利风格的轮动、或来自于阶段性煤价预期差带来的反弹行情。建议沿三条主线寻找投资机会， 一是逢低配置、长期持有动力煤红利龙头；二是关注有产能扩张、政策受益的Alpha公司；三是把握煤 价预期差驱动的反弹行情，建议届时阶段性关注弹性大的公司。 中信证券研报指出，展望2026年，预计煤炭行业将延续供需双弱的格局，但供给宽松的幅度或有所收 窄。再考虑"反内卷"政策的托底，预计煤价底部可有效抬升，低价持续时间也有望缩短。再考虑全球煤 炭供需格局的改善对国际煤价形成支撑，国内煤价中枢有望上移，预计2026年国内煤炭均价涨幅约为 5%～7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to decline by 2026, with marginal improvements in thermal power and stabilization in non-electric sectors, leading to an overall improvement in the coal industry's outlook [1]. Industry Review - In 2025, coal prices are projected to decrease initially before recovering, with the coal sector expected to yield positive absolute returns for the year, although underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. Supply Situation - Domestic supply is anticipated to decline in 2026 due to production restrictions. In terms of provinces: Shanxi is expected to see a decrease in washed coal output, Inner Mongolia's production is at its peak, Shaanxi faces capacity exit pressures, and Xinjiang has potential for increased output [2]. - For imported coal, a decrease in imports is expected in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 10.9% from January to October. A slight recovery is anticipated in 2026, with specific expectations for thermal and coking coal [2]. Demand Situation - Electricity demand is expected to see significant replacement by hydropower, with continued high growth in wind and solar energy. A reduction in thermal power is projected for 2025, but the elasticity coefficient for electricity demand is expected to recover in 2026, positively impacting thermal power demand [3]. - Non-electric demand is anticipated to maintain high levels in coal chemical industries, with improvements expected in the real estate and infrastructure sectors due to macroeconomic policies, leading to a further reduction in the decline rate in 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to the rising cost structure and expected increase in coal prices [2][6]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a structural change with a systematic increase in the cost base, driven by factors such as increased mining depth, stricter environmental compliance, and rising safety investments. This has led to a higher price floor for coal, making it unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2015 [8][7]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs are not a temporary phenomenon but are supported by rigid factors such as labor costs, safety investments, and environmental governance, which are expected to persist in the long term [7][8]. - The anticipated tightening of supply due to production constraints and limited new capacity is expected to support a steady increase in coal prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Cost Research Framework - The report outlines the components of coal production costs, including direct and indirect costs, with a focus on production costs as the most significant element [16][17]. 2. Thermal Coal: Cost Support and Price Floor - From 2015 to 2024, the average complete cost of thermal coal for sample enterprises increased from 216 CNY/ton to 306 CNY/ton, with a CAGR of 4%. The production cost rose from 161 CNY/ton to 231 CNY/ton [29][30]. - In 2024, benchmark companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy have complete costs of 251, 294, and 310 CNY/ton respectively [29][30]. 3. Coking Coal: Rising Cost Support - The complete cost of coking coal for sample companies increased from 546 CNY/ton to 1051 CNY/ton from 2015 to 2024, with a CAGR of 7.6%. The production cost rose from 432 CNY/ton to 814 CNY/ton [5][6]. - The report indicates that the cost structure for coking coal is also expected to rise due to increased mining difficulty and regulatory pressures [5][6]. 4. Supply Tightening and Market Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal production has been in negative growth since July, influenced by loss pressures and capacity checks, which are expected to tighten supply further [6][7]. - Import volumes have been declining for eight consecutive months, limiting the ability to supplement domestic supply [6][7]. 5. Key Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to more elastic stocks like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co. [6][7].

华鑫证券近日发布煤炭行业深度报告：2024年国内原煤产量47.60亿吨，同比+1.3%，增 速较过去五年的复合增速4.36%大幅下降。分区域看，新疆、内蒙古为增供主力，2024年分 别贡献增量0.81亿吨、0.66亿吨，而远期来看，新疆远期规划产能增量0.72亿吨/年，内蒙古 远期新增产能合计1.32亿吨/年，而山西受"三超"整治及资源约束，2024年产量同比-6.9%， 未来供给或仍面临一定脆弱性。 需求偏刚性，电力支撑主要消费、化工需求增量显著 2024年国内煤炭消费总量48.4亿吨，同比+1.7%，电力行业需求占比55%，仍为核心占 比。2024年支撑电力行业动力煤用量同比+2.64%至26.51亿吨；化工用煤需求增长强劲，消 费量同比+13.86%；建材用煤量同比-5.05%，随房地产政策优化降幅有望收窄；冶金行业受 生铁产量下滑拖累，用煤量同比-4.07%；供热及其他行业增速放缓，但仍保持正增长，分别 同比+5.66%、+6.75%。出口需求方面，2024年煤及褐煤出口666万吨，同比+49.1%，呈现增 长趋势。 供需缺口或持续扩大，煤价中枢有望上移 以下为研究报告摘要： 45.89亿吨，3年复合 ...