Report Summary 1. Current Situation of Coal Production - In July 2025, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons. From January to July, the raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [1]. - The July output was 40 million tons lower than the previous month but was the second - highest in the same period in history. The cumulative output from January to July was 2.78 billion tons, the highest in history, 130 million tons higher than the same period in 2024 [2]. 2. Completion of Annual Output Target - To achieve the annual expected output of 4.8 billion tons set by the Energy Bureau, the average monthly output from August to December needs to reach 404 million tons. Compared with the average monthly output of 397 million tons from January to July 2025, theoretically, only a monthly increase of one million tons in the national total raw coal output is required [2]. 3. Reasons for Output Decline in July - The decline in July was a seasonal one, and heavy rains in the self - production areas and the "Three Western Regions" exacerbated the decline. Historically, from 2019 - 2024, the average monthly raw coal output in the second half of the year often exceeded that in the first half [2]. 4. Regional Over - production and Price Concerns - The regional over - production situation from January - June/July 2025 may be weaker than the same period. The continuous rise in coal prices may trigger concerns of relevant departments about price regulation [2].

智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，预计全年电煤需求增加，随着供给侧出现收紧，煤价有望进 一步提升，弹性及低估值板块有望受益。此外，本次煤价确立政策底部，对于高分红比例的标的股息率 也有保障，高股息企业有望得到估值提升。建议关注资源禀赋优秀，经营业绩稳定且分红比例预期较高 的标的。 供给管控锁定煤价底部，需求释放决定上涨空间 政策筑底，需求定顶。2016年"276政策"实施后，伴随地产投资回暖，煤价从349元涨至735元;2021 年"超产入刑"政策叠加疫后经济复苏，煤价从564元攀升至1705元。考虑到当前2025年新政出台时煤价 基数高于前两轮，且在迎峰度夏刚性需求支撑和供给端产能优化共同作用下，预计将通过限制产量、改 善供需从而对煤价形成托底效应。但后续煤价能否实现大幅上涨，仍需观察未来宏观经济走势或相关行 业发展带来的煤炭需求变化情况。 供需情况分析 动力煤：供给增量来自国内，随着安全检查的因素减弱，我国原煤产量同比提升，而进口煤利润减少， 海外出售给我国进口煤量有所下降。本次反内卷如果希望看到煤价的快速上涨，依然需要需求侧有改 善，而当前高温给需求带来催化，夏季电厂日耗不断攀升，港口库存也进一步 ...