Group 1 - Recent domestic coal futures have experienced a sharp rebound, leading to a stabilization and increase in methanol prices, which are currently operating in the range of 2250 to 2300 yuan/ton [1] - The methanol futures contract 2509 remains in a bearish arrangement, with significant domestic supply pressure and increasing overseas imports, while downstream demand is entering a low season, resulting in accumulated social inventory [1] Group 2 - Domestic coal prices have significantly declined due to increased supply pressures, with the daily output of coking coal reaching 1.9795 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 11,300 tons [2] - The production profit for coal-based methanol has risen to over 20% in the northwest region of China, with profits in Shandong and Inner Mongolia increasing to the range of 15% to 20% [2] Group 3 - The reduction in maintenance of methanol production facilities has led to high production levels, with an estimated maintenance capacity of 7.51 million tons/year in May, a significant decrease of 56.59% year-on-year [3] - The average operating rate of domestic methanol plants was maintained at 82.95%, with a weekly production average of 1.9667 million tons, an increase of 27.60 thousand tons compared to the same period last year [3] Group 4 - The traditional low season for methanol consumption occurs from June to August, with June being the annual demand trough, leading to weak demand characteristics [4] - As external imports of methanol increase, the weak demand may lead to an accumulation of inventory, with port methanol inventory in East and South China rising to 394,400 tons, and inland methanol inventory reaching 355,000 tons [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal-to-methanol production profits have been substantial in 2025, leading to a continuous release of methanol capacity despite the annual maintenance period, resulting in high production levels and weak futures prices for methanol [1][2][5]. Group 1: Production and Profitability - Since January 2025, the production profits for coal-to-methanol in China have remained robust, with cost-profit margins generally between 3% and 9%, encouraging companies to increase production capacity [2]. - By the end of March 2025, the cost-profit margins for coal-to-methanol in various regions were reported as follows: Northwest at approximately 6.5%, Shandong at around 10%, and Inner Mongolia at about 13.8%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [2]. - The production capacity for coal-to-methanol is expected to continue to be released, maintaining supply pressure due to high profit margins [2][4]. Group 2: Seasonal Maintenance and Production Levels - In March 2025, the annual spring maintenance peak for methanol production was observed, with production load decreasing slightly but remaining at high levels, with a weekly average operating rate of 75.64% [3]. - The weekly methanol production averaged 1.8269 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of over 110,000 tons despite a slight month-on-month decrease [3]. - Domestic methanol inventory decreased to 327,800 tons by March 27, 2025, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous months and last year [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In March 2025, there were minor improvements in downstream demand for methanol, but the extent of improvement was less than in previous years, with formal demand sectors showing mixed results [5]. - The operating rate for formaldehyde enterprises was 25.73%, while acetic acid saw a significant increase to 93.05% due to favorable profit margins [5]. - Overall, the downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with most sectors experiencing low operating rates, leading to limited improvements in consumption [5].