1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure of methanol is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [3]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support, and the supply in Iran, the main import source, is facing serious interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [4][47] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Methanol Spot Price Rose Slightly and the Basis was Slightly at a Premium - In the week of December 31, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week - on - week; in South China, it was 2,192 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton week - on - week; in North China, it was 2,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Taking the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China as the spot reference price and the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract as the futures reference price, the basis was slightly at a premium, with a premium of 6 yuan/ton as of the week of December 31, 2025 [9] 3.1.2 Import Expectation Declined and Methanol Stabilized and Rebounded - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [18] 3.2 Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased and Weekly Output Slightly Increased - In December 2025, the domestic methanol market maintained a pattern of loose supply, with high operating rates of enterprise equipment and high - level weekly output. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol turned negative and the loss continued to expand, the domestic supply still increased. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, up 0.21% week - on - week, 2.57% month - on - month, and 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly output of methanol was 2.0722 million tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week, 48,600 tons month - on - month, and 232,100 tons compared with 1.8401 million tons in the same period last year [20] 3.2.2 Delayed Unloading of Overseas Methanol at Ports and Increased Import Pressure - Affected by sanctions, weather, and special port fees, the unloading progress of imported methanol in October 2025 was lower than expected, and a large amount of goods were postponed to November for unloading. Iran's production did not significantly decrease due to high temperature and the "staggered peak maintenance" strategy. Some Iranian goods changed their routes to Shandong, which affected the port distribution structure but did not significantly reduce the total import volume. In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, down 195,000 tons month - on - month but up 332,500 tons (30.64%) compared with the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 12.6969 million tons, up 321,600 tons (2.60%) compared with the same period last year. The high import volume in November increased the inventory pressure in coastal areas and put downward pressure on methanol prices in the fourth quarter [23][24] 3.2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Improved and Olefin Profit Slightly Rebounded - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 31.70%, up 0.08% week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, down 0.41% week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 77.61%, up 1.89% week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 58.12%, down 1.00% week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.32%, down 0.83 percentage points week - on - week and 1.44% month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the futures profit of methanol to olefin was - 300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 304 yuan/ton month - on - month [26] 3.2.4 Port Inventory Increased Significantly and Inland Inventory Increased Slightly - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, up 113,200 tons week - on - week, down 35,900 tons month - on - month, and up 312,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, up 18,600 tons week - on - week, up 49,000 tons month - on - month, and up 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the same period last year [34] 3.2.5 The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Widened - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2,120 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,370 yuan/ton. With the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract at 2,161 yuan/ton on December 26, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 41 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 1.93%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2,022 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,273 yuan/ton, with a profit of 139 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 6.87%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 1,988 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,238 yuan/ton, with a profit of 173 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 8.70% [39][40] 3.3 Conclusion - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, enhancing the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The coal demand has weakened, leading to a decline in coal prices. However, the domestic methanol auction prices remain firm, and the coal - to - methanol profit is stable at a high level. After the autumn maintenance, the domestic methanol supply is abundant. The international methanol device operating rate is stable, with most devices in Iran restarted, and imports are gradually recovering. As the arrival volume increases, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly. With stable downstream demand and general port demand, methanol should be shorted at high prices but not chased when shorting [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Analysis of raw coal**: As of September 10, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions have rebounded, with daily coal production around 4 million tons. The demand has weakened, and the pit - mouth price continues to decline [4] - **Supply situation**: The price of raw coal has fallen, but the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. The domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price of imported methanol has dropped, and the import parity is stable. The operating rate of overseas devices is high, and the import volume in September is expected to reach 1.4 billion tons [4] - **Demand situation**: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4] - **Inventory situation**: The port inventory has increased significantly due to more imports, and the basis is weakly stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4] - **Trading strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. In the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 11, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 72.75%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points from last week and 0.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 66.54%, a decrease of 3.10 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From August 30, 2025, to September 5, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol production was 1,090,107 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 74.73%, a 0.21% increase from last week [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of September 10, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 457,100 tons during the cycle [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.69%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 82.66%, with a slight decline [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have different changes. The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 19.10% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 250,700 tons, an increase of 940 tons from the previous period [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of September 10, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] - **Spot price**: The price in Taicang is 2,280 (+30), and the price in the north line is 2,100 (+60) [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: April 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher Team: Energy Chemical Research Team [4] - Data Sources: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract increased in positions and declined in price today, with the weighted contract increasing by 9,756 lots and the 09 main contract increasing by 48,891 lots. The weighted contract showed a volatile downward trend during the day, closing with a medium - bodied阴线 with a short lower shadow, down 1.35% overall. The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,415 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton from the previous day. From April 11 to 17, 2025, the domestic methanol production was 1,950,515 tons, down 11,030 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.37%, down 0.56% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rates of some major downstream demand varieties of methanol this week are as follows: olefins 83.90%, down 3.15% month - on - month; formaldehyde 52.52%, up 0.43% month - on - month; acetic acid 81.35%, down 5.09% month - on - month; MTBE 67.19%, up 1.66% month - on - month. Methanol ports have started to accumulate inventory, while the inland market remains strong. Chengzhi and Bohua have recently carried out maintenance. Currently, Iranian devices have restarted, and MTO maintenance has begun to materialize, showing negative factors. The inland demand is acceptable. Without further decline in polyolefins, there is no excessive bearish view, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term with fluctuations [5]. - Technically, in the hourly - line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines of the methanol weighted contract are running below the zero axis, and the red and green bars have become longer, showing a continuous sideways, volatile and weak trend; in the daily - line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are below the zero axis, and the green bars have started to lengthen, also showing a continuous sideways, volatile and weak trend. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term with fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures market: MA2501 opened at 2,339, closed at 2,309, with a high of 2,346, a low of 2,309, down 0.94%, with a trading volume of 16,488 lots, an open interest of 66,781 lots, an increase of 5,489 lots in open interest, and a speculation degree of 0.25. MA2505 opened at 2,375, closed at 2,333, with a high of 2,384, a low of 2,328, down 1.52%, with a trading volume of 225,588 lots, an open interest of 229,015 lots, a decrease of 46,663 lots in open interest, and a speculation degree of 0.99. MA2509 opened at 2,270, closed at 2,238, with a high of 2,274, a low of 2,234, down 1.06%, with a trading volume of 659,451 lots, an open interest of 668,645 lots, an increase of 48,891 lots in open interest, and a speculation degree of 0.99 [7]. 2. Industry News - Fude Group plans a 6 - million - ton coal - to - methanol project. Fude (Xinjiang) New Energy Co., Ltd. was unveiled in Urumqi, Xinjiang. The project team has completed key tasks such as industrial and commercial registration, feasibility study review, and project coding in just a few months since its establishment in January this year. It has also cooperated with the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to build a green and low - carbon industrial park and signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in the coal - chemical field with the Western Pipeline Company of the National Pipeline Network Group [13]. - Xinjiang Zhongtai's 1 - million - ton methanol project with Jinhuafurnace was successfully ignited at one time. The project uses the waste gas and sieved residues (coke powder and coal dust) from the semi - coke device built by Zhongtai Group in Tuokexun County as raw materials to build a 1 - million - ton/year methanol project [13]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including futures prices and warehouse receipt quantities, MA05 - MA09 spread, three - process methanol profits, and methanol overseas market prices, but specific data details are not described in the text [14][21].