港口库存持续创新高，甲醇延续弱势 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年9月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率提升，截止9月10日，鄂市煤矿开工率71%，榆林地区煤矿开工率44%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量400万吨附近，需求减弱，坑口价延续下跌。供应端，原料煤 价格下跌，西北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在660元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，口 端，美金昨日价格继续下跌，进口顺挂稳定，伊朗装置基本正常，非伊开工稳定，外盘开工高位，欧美市场稳定，中欧价差小幅扩大， 东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗9月已装30万吨，印度减量采购伊朗货源，伊朗降价招标，中国流向增加，非伊货源稳定，9月进口预期调 高至140万吨，美金商逢高获利出货积极，太仓到货较多，持续累库。需求端，传统下游进入淡季，开 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: April 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher Team: Energy Chemical Research Team [4] - Data Sources: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract increased in positions and declined in price today, with the weighted contract increasing by 9,756 lots and the 09 main contract increasing by 48,891 lots. The weighted contract showed a volatile downward trend during the day, closing with a medium - bodied阴线 with a short lower shadow, down 1.35% overall. The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,415 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton from the previous day. From April 11 to 17, 2025, the domestic methanol production was 1,950,515 tons, down 11,030 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.37%, down 0.56% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rates of some major downstream demand varieties of methanol this week are as follows: olefins 83.90%, down 3.15% month - on - month; formaldehyde 52.52%, up 0.43% month - on - month; acetic acid 81.35%, down 5.09% month - on - month; MTBE 67.19%, up 1.66% month - on - month. Methanol ports have started to accumulate inventory, while the inland market remains strong. Chengzhi and Bohua have recently carried out maintenance. Currently, Iranian devices have restarted, and MTO maintenance has begun to materialize, showing negative factors. The inland demand is acceptable. Without further decline in polyolefins, there is no excessive bearish view, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term with fluctuations [5]. - Technically, in the hourly - line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines of the methanol weighted contract are running below the zero axis, and the red and green bars have become longer, showing a continuous sideways, volatile and weak trend; in the daily - line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are below the zero axis, and the green bars have started to lengthen, also showing a continuous sideways, volatile and weak trend. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term with fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures market: MA2501 opened at 2,339, closed at 2,309, with a high of 2,346, a low of 2,309, down 0.94%, with a trading volume of 16,488 lots, an open interest of 66,781 lots, an increase of 5,489 lots in open interest, and a speculation degree of 0.25. MA2505 opened at 2,375, closed at 2,333, with a high of 2,384, a low of 2,328, down 1.52%, with a trading volume of 225,588 lots, an open interest of 229,015 lots, a decrease of 46,663 lots in open interest, and a speculation degree of 0.99. MA2509 opened at 2,270, closed at 2,238, with a high of 2,274, a low of 2,234, down 1.06%, with a trading volume of 659,451 lots, an open interest of 668,645 lots, an increase of 48,891 lots in open interest, and a speculation degree of 0.99 [7]. 2. Industry News - Fude Group plans a 6 - million - ton coal - to - methanol project. Fude (Xinjiang) New Energy Co., Ltd. was unveiled in Urumqi, Xinjiang. The project team has completed key tasks such as industrial and commercial registration, feasibility study review, and project coding in just a few months since its establishment in January this year. It has also cooperated with the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to build a green and low - carbon industrial park and signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in the coal - chemical field with the Western Pipeline Company of the National Pipeline Network Group [13]. - Xinjiang Zhongtai's 1 - million - ton methanol project with Jinhuafurnace was successfully ignited at one time. The project uses the waste gas and sieved residues (coke powder and coal dust) from the semi - coke device built by Zhongtai Group in Tuokexun County as raw materials to build a 1 - million - ton/year methanol project [13]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including futures prices and warehouse receipt quantities, MA05 - MA09 spread, three - process methanol profits, and methanol overseas market prices, but specific data details are not described in the text [14][21].