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17省披露前5月财政数据
第一财经· 2025-06-30 12:59
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation of various provinces in China for the first five months of 2025, highlighting the growth in public budget revenues in some provinces despite overall economic challenges [1]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Growth - Among the 17 provinces that disclosed their fiscal data, 15 experienced growth in general public budget revenue, with Jilin Province showing the highest growth rate of 15% [2]. - Jilin's non-tax revenue increased by 30.6%, driven by the activation of state-owned assets, particularly in resource utilization, which saw a 104.6% increase in revenue from the paid use of state resources [2]. - Qinghai Province followed Jilin with a revenue growth rate of 7.4%, also attributed to a significant rise in non-tax revenue, which grew by 60.2% [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Revenue Growth - Other provinces, such as Jiangsu and Beijing, reported modest revenue growth of less than 3%, primarily due to economic pressures, a sluggish real estate market, and complex foreign trade conditions [3]. - National tax revenue decreased by 1.6% in the first five months, reflecting broader economic challenges, although the decline has been narrowing month by month [3]. Group 3: Expenditure Trends - Despite low revenue growth, public budget expenditures in 17 provinces generally maintained an upward trend, with Shanghai recording the highest growth rate of 14.2% [5]. - The increase in expenditures is primarily focused on social welfare, education, and healthcare, indicating a prioritization of human investment [5]. - The fiscal imbalance is evident as expenditures in 16 provinces exceeded revenues, a situation that is expected to be addressed through central government transfers and debt financing [5][6]. Group 4: Land Sales and Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenues, heavily reliant on land sales, have declined due to a sluggish real estate market, with land transfer income dropping by 11.9% year-on-year [7]. - Provinces like Shaanxi and Jilin experienced significant declines in land sale revenues, with decreases of approximately 42.3% and 33.5%, respectively [7]. - Analysts suggest that without new policies, the short-term outlook for government fund revenue will remain bleak, as the real estate market continues to show downward trends [7].