Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - The report suggests that coal prices are likely to end the year at their highest point due to increased regulatory checks on production, resilient demand, and potential capacity increases disrupting market expectations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index was at 3,523.37 points, down 0.77%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.14 percentage points, ranking 27th among CITIC sectors [3][83]. Production and Supply - In July, the average daily output of raw coal in China hit a new low since July 2023, marking the first year-on-year decline since May 2024 [2]. - The report highlights that the National Energy Administration's recent measures to check overproduction are crucial for stabilizing coal prices, indicating long-term supply risks [2][3]. Price Trends - Coal prices saw a significant rebound after hitting a low of 618 CNY/ton in mid-June, driven by seasonal demand and regulatory news [3]. - As of August 15, the price of thermal coal at North Port was reported at 696 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15 CNY/ton [9][39]. Demand Dynamics - The report notes that while downstream demand remains stable, the enthusiasm for purchasing coal has diminished due to rising prices, leading to a cautious approach from coal mines [9][40]. - The report emphasizes that the overall demand from downstream industries, including metallurgy and chemicals, remains stable despite fluctuations in coal prices [18]. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong earnings potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, highlighting their resilience in the current market [12]. - It also suggests monitoring the impact of regulatory measures on production and the potential for increased imports of coal [11][12]. Inventory and Stock Levels - The report indicates that coal inventories at ports have been declining, with a total of 2,364 million tons reported as of August 15, down 102 million tons week-on-week [22]. - The report also notes that the overall inventory levels in the coal market remain low, which supports price stability [47].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others [10][11]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing a price rebound due to policy interventions aimed at regulating production and stabilizing supply [2][12]. - The recent "overproduction" inspection by the National Energy Administration has catalyzed a positive market sentiment, leading to a slight increase in coal prices [14][33]. - The overall supply recovery in coal-producing regions remains limited, with some mines resuming normal production while others are temporarily halting operations due to monthly production targets and adverse weather conditions [14][33]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose by 8.00%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 6.31 percentage points, marking it as the top performer among CITIC sectors [2][75]. - As of July 25, the price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal reached approximately 650 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained due to inspections and production regulations, which have led to a cautious optimism among market participants regarding price stability [14][33]. - Downstream demand remains stable, particularly from the metallurgical and chemical sectors, contributing to a positive outlook for coal prices [14][33]. Focus on Key Companies - The report highlights several companies with strong performance potential, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, recommending them for investment due to their robust earnings forecasts [10][11]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring domestic supply conditions and the recovery of imported coal from Mongolia [7][11]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen significant increases, with some varieties rising by 300 to 400 CNY/ton since July [6][39]. - The price of main coking coal at the port reached 1,680 CNY/ton, up 240 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by strong demand and limited supply [39][51]. Inventory and Production Insights - Inventory levels for coking coal are decreasing, with port inventories reported at 292,000 tons, down 29,000 tons week-on-week [48][63]. - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, indicating ongoing challenges for coking companies despite rising prices [70][74].