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东方证券煤炭行业周报:年末煤炭供应显著收缩,动力煤短期有望止跌-20251228
Orient Securities· 2025-12-28 10:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry, indicating an expectation of performance that is stronger than the market benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The coal supply has significantly contracted towards the end of the year, with expectations for short-term stabilization in thermal coal prices. The focus is on the port inventory trends and seasonal factors affecting coking coal prices [2][3][9]. - The report suggests that the recent decline in coal prices has led to a pessimistic market sentiment, but a potential rebound in prices could improve market emotions and present investment opportunities [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on the potential rebound in thermal coal prices as port inventories decrease, and coking coal prices may strengthen due to seasonal restocking [3][61]. - It highlights the recent market correction in the coal sector and suggests that a stabilization in coal prices could lead to a recovery in market sentiment [3][61]. Industry Fundamentals - Thermal coal prices have continued to decline, while coking coal prices have shown signs of recovery. The report notes that the supply from coal mines has decreased seasonally, impacting overall market dynamics [10][29]. - Port inventories have started to decline, with a noted decrease in the number of vessels anchored at ports, indicating a potential shift towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [9][52]. - The report also mentions that the average temperatures in major cities are significantly higher than in previous years, which may affect coal demand during the winter season [29][31].