Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to be released more rationally in the second half of the year, combined with marginal improvements in demand, leading to an overall rebound in coal prices, which will support industry profit recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Profitability and Price Trends - The sustainability of profitability in the coal industry is crucial, with companies having relatively good profit capabilities, lighter balance sheets, and attractive dividends amid an "asset shortage" [4][6]. - The domestic electricity demand is projected to grow steadily, with a forecasted year-on-year growth rate of 5-6% by 2025, which will support coal demand recovery in the second half of the year [4][26]. - The coal price is expected to rebound after the summer peak season, with the low point in June likely being the lowest for the year [4][48]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal production in the first half of the year reached a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% to 2.405 billion tons, primarily driven by high production levels in Shanxi [41][43]. - The government is taking measures to ensure rational coal supply release, which is expected to alleviate the "quantity compensating price" situation and enhance safety in coal production [42][48]. - The coal import volume decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, primarily due to inventory pressures and price discrepancies between domestic and international markets [45][46]. Group 3: Coking Coal Market Outlook - Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, but the sustainability of this rebound depends on whether production cuts can be realized [5][54]. - The domestic coking coal production is nearing its peak, with future supply largely dependent on imports from Mongolia, which may limit the price rebound potential [55][56]. - The market anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy will catalyze a short-term rebound in coking coal prices, contingent on the pace and effectiveness of policy implementation [54][56].