久违的煤价反弹力度如何？20260105 摘要 2025 年末全国样本煤矿动力煤日均产量环比下降超 4%，内贸供应收缩 预期推动港口煤价止跌反弹。寒潮刺激用煤需求，叠加中央经济工作会 议和安委办约谈等政策，市场对煤价底部支撑预期增强。 尽管高库存、煤矿复产和终端谨慎采购可能限制节后煤价反弹，但价格 下行空间有限，且岁末年初险资增配煤炭板块趋势明显，建议重视煤炭 红利配置机会。 短期内，元旦后煤矿复产、终端高库存和春节前补库需求是影响动力煤 价格走势的关键因素。即便短期反弹有限，下行空间可控。2025 年秦 港最低点 609 元/吨接近行业成本曲线 90%分位，供给调控政策有望抬 升 2026 年低点。 预计 2026 年动力煤市场全年价格中枢稳中有升。一季度险资保费集中 流入窗口期增配概率大，成本和政策托举作用显著，建议继续重视行业 红利配置机会。 当前推荐攻守兼备型（兖矿能源、电投能源）、红利稳定型（中煤能源、 陕西煤业、中国神华）和弹性进攻型（华阳股份、晋控煤业、潞安环能、 平山国际）三条主线标的。 Q&A 如何看待近期煤价的反弹力度及其持续性？ 近期煤价反弹的核心驱动因素主要在于供给端年末收缩和需求端边 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？我们认为本次反弹核心驱动在于供给年末收缩与需求边际改善的 共振，叠加政策托底预期强化。尽管高库存环境、元旦后煤矿逐步复产、终端采购谨慎心态或 仍共同制约煤价反弹力度，然而价格下行有底得以体现，叠加岁末年初险资有望增配煤炭板块， 当前时点建议继续重视煤炭红利配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？ [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：动力煤止跌反弹，焦煤暂稳运行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a steady yet slightly strong trend, with prices rising slightly due to cooling temperatures, although there are risks of price stabilization in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main production areas are showing a stable yet slightly strong market trend, with coal prices experiencing a slight increase due to lower temperatures and a recovering trading atmosphere [1] - Downstream power plants have low inventory levels compared to last year, and with the peak winter coal demand approaching, there is a certain level of rigid demand and replenishment needs [2][3] - The Daqin and Tanghu lines maintain high transportation volumes, and the average daily coal input at the ports remains stable, supporting the market [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The cold wave has significantly increased coal consumption, leading power plants to enter a replenishment mode, which is expected to boost procurement quantities [2][3] - The number of vessels at the ports has increased, but adverse weather conditions have led to a higher coal stockpile at certain ports, creating a supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - The overall market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, where prices remain firm but demand is weak, making transactions difficult [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain active as power plants seek to increase their coal inventories in anticipation of higher winter demand, with potential upward pressure on coal prices [3][5] - The supply side is likely to remain tight due to ongoing safety inspections and production capacity restrictions, which may lead to structural shortages in the market [4] - If the ports can accelerate inventory reduction, high-quality coal may become scarce again, potentially leading to a new upward trend in coal prices [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The "check for overproduction" policy has significantly improved supply and demand, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The domestic raw coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of -3.8% and -3.2%, respectively, resulting in a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [4] - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 RMB/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [4] - The rebound in coal prices is a key positive variable for Q3 performance, with the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal reported at 672 RMB/ton, a 6.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The report suggests that winter coal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply-side contraction and increased heating demand [5] Summary by Sections Section: Market Performance - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to effective supply-side policies, with a notable decrease in cumulative supply surplus from 96.29 million tons in the first half of the year to 14.96 million tons by the end of August 2025 [4] Section: Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal in Q3 2025 is projected to be 672 RMB/ton, reflecting a 6.5% increase from the previous quarter, while the long-term contract price slightly decreased by 0.7% [4] - The price of coking coal has also seen a significant increase, with the average price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1562 RMB/ton, an 18.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] Section: Production and Cost Control - The production of listed coal companies is expected to remain within approved capacity limits, with minor fluctuations anticipated. The impact of production on performance is expected to be limited due to the significant rebound in coal prices [4] - Cost control remains a primary focus for coal companies, with expectations that costs will stabilize in Q3 2025 following a period of significant reductions in H1 2025 [4] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding Group [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues to experience an upward trend, driven by supply-side tightening and improving coal price sentiment, with expectations for better demand and pricing in the coming years [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Coal Energy (601898) increased by 6.39%, trading at HKD 10.99 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) rose by 3.28%, trading at HKD 11.34 - China Shenhua Energy (601088) saw a 2.36% increase, trading at HKD 40.76 - Yancoal Australia (03668) gained 1.27%, trading at HKD 28.74 [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Founder Securities, the introduction of production exceeding documents has significantly impacted coal price sentiment, indicating a shift from oversupply to a more balanced supply-demand scenario [1] - The coal demand is expected to rise due to high consumption levels during the summer of 2025, leading to an improved coal supply-demand structure [1] - The gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies may also restrict imported coal in the future [1] Group 3: Profit Outlook - Guosen Securities noted that while coal prices have been declining and profits for coal companies have been poor in early 2024, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability for coal enterprises [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to show upward price elasticity for coal, with the coal sector's performance lagging behind other sectors but showing clear bottoming signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a rebound, with several coal stocks showing significant increases, driven by expectations of improved profits and rising coal prices in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Mongol Mining (00975) increased by 10.03%, reaching HKD 13.6 [1] - Shougang Resources (00639) rose by 5.28%, reaching HKD 2.99 [1] - China Qinfa (00866) saw a rise of 4.47%, reaching HKD 3.04 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668) increased by 1.96%, reaching HKD 28.04 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 1.8%, reaching HKD 10.2 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Guosen Securities predicts a rebound in coal prices in the second half of 2025, which is expected to improve coal company profits [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show upward elasticity in coal prices, with the coal sector underperforming compared to other sectors [1] - Post-holiday, coal prices have quickly stopped declining and started to rebound, indicating a tightening supply expectation [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - During the double festival period and after, continuous rain has impacted coal supply, with maintenance on the Daqin Railway and the initiation of winter storage contributing to short-term price support [1] - For coking coal, downstream iron and steel production remains high, but confidence among coking enterprises to raise prices is low, leading to a cautious outlook [1] - October is still a peak demand season, with low total inventory levels for coal, coke, and steel providing support for coal prices, while coking coal is expected to continue a volatile trend [1]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have mostly risen, with Mongol Mining up 10.03% to HKD 13.6, Shougang Resources up 5.28% to HKD 2.99, and China Qinfa up 4.47% to HKD 3.04 [1] - Guosen Securities reports that coal prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, improving coal company profits, with the fourth quarter showing potential for price increases due to tightening supply expectations [1] - After the holiday, coal prices quickly stopped falling and rebounded, indicating a sustained expectation of supply tightening, which raises the price floor for coal [1] Group 2 - Datong Securities notes that during the holiday period and after, continuous rain has affected coal supply, with maintenance on the Daqin Railway and the start of winter storage supporting short-term coal price strength [1] - For coking coal, downstream iron and steel production remains high, but coking enterprises are hesitant to raise prices, leading to a cautious outlook, while October remains a peak demand season [1] - The total inventory of coal, coke, and steel is at a low level, providing support for coal prices, with coking coal expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to contract due to the upcoming safety production inspections, which may lead to an increase in coal prices as demand rises in November [2][3]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Supply Impact - In November, 22 safety inspection teams will enter 31 provinces and regions to conduct annual assessments, focusing on major safety issues and illegal activities in production [2]. - The inspections may lead to rectifications of safety hazards related to overproduction in the coal sector, further tightening coal supply [2][3]. - Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with expectations of further reductions due to the inspections [2]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - The coal price has rebounded during the off-season, stabilizing above 700 yuan/ton by the end of September, primarily due to supply contraction [3]. - As the heating season begins in mid-November, the demand for coal is expected to increase, particularly from non-electric sectors like coal chemical industries, which may support coal prices [3]. - The anticipated supply reduction is expected to end the seasonal price decline early, with projections suggesting coal prices could exceed 900 yuan/ton by year-end [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising coal prices, with a focus on companies with high spot market exposure [3]. - Recommended investment targets include: 1. Companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy [3]. 2. Stable and growth-oriented companies like Jincheng Anthracite Mining and Huayang Co., Ltd. [3]. 3. Companies with recovery in production, such as Shanxi Coal International [3]. 4. Industry leaders with stable performance, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies based on their performance and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming safety production assessments are expected to lead to a contraction in coal supply, which may support a rebound in coal prices. Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, and the anticipated inspections may further tighten supply [1][2]. - The coal price has shown signs of recovery, stabilizing above 700 RMB/ton by the end of September 2025. The report predicts that by the end of the year, coal prices could exceed 900 RMB/ton due to supply constraints and increased demand from the coal chemical sector [2]. - The report highlights several investment opportunities within the sector, particularly focusing on companies with high spot market exposure and those expected to benefit from supply-demand dynamics [2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The safety inspections scheduled for November 2025 are likely to impact coal supply negatively, reinforcing expectations of reduced output. This is particularly relevant as the country transitions into the heating season, which typically sees increased demand [1][2]. - The report notes that the coal chemical sector is poised to benefit from the seasonal demand increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies based on their market positioning and expected performance: 1. **High Spot Market Exposure**: Lu'an Huanneng (潞安环能) is highlighted for its significant elasticity in response to price changes. 2. **Stable Growth Companies**: Jin控煤业 (晋控煤业) and Huayang Co., Ltd. (华阳股份) are recommended for their robust performance. 3. **Recovery in Production**: Shanmei International (山煤国际) is noted for its potential production recovery. 4. **Industry Leaders**: China Shenhua (中国神华), Zhongmei Energy (中煤能源), and Shaanxi Coal (陕西煤业) are recognized for their stable earnings [2][4].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The coal supply in China is experiencing disturbances, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices as demand remains supported during peak summer and high iron and steel production levels [1] - As of September 16, 2025, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports is 22.785 million tons, lower than the 23.01 million tons recorded in the same period of 2024 [1] - The "overproduction check" policy suggests that domestic coal production may not return to the levels seen in the first half of the year, indicating a tighter supply-demand balance [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - The company is expected to achieve a coal production volume of 180-190 million tons in 2025, an increase of over 40 million tons year-on-year, driven by capacity releases from new mines and acquisitions [2] - The total capacity of the company's operational, under-construction, and planned mines has reached 320 million tons per year, with a goal of achieving 300 million tons of raw coal by 2030 [2] - The company plans to reduce its coal sales cost by 3%-5% year-on-year in 2025, with the cost of self-produced coal in the first half of 2025 being 328 RMB per ton, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company commits to distributing cash dividends amounting to approximately 60% of its net profit after statutory reserves for the years 2023-2025, with a minimum cash dividend of 0.5 RMB per share [3] - For the first half of 2025, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.18 RMB per share and intends to repurchase shares worth 0.5-1 billion RMB for A shares and 1.5-4 billion RMB for H shares [3] - The H shares of the company have a higher dividend yield compared to peers, with a projected yield of 9.4% in 2024, and a current yield of 5.3% based on the minimum dividend commitment [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company's net profit is projected to be 8.94 billion RMB, 9.65 billion RMB, and 10.69 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -38%, +7.9%, and +10.8% respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 0.89 RMB, 0.96 RMB, and 1.07 RMB, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.2, 14.1, and 12.7 [4] - The company's performance is anticipated to benefit from a rebound in coal prices and gradual release of coal production capacity [4]