机构：中金公司 研究员：陈彦 业绩回顾 2025 年业绩基本符合我们预期 公司公布2025 年业绩：归母净利润4.40 亿澳元，同比-64%，对应每股收益0.33 澳元，基本符合我们预 期。公司盈利下滑主要系煤价下跌所致。2H25 归母净利润2.77 亿澳元，同比/环比-65%/+70%。 1）煤炭售价下跌。2025 年全球煤价下跌，拖累公司综合销售价格同比-17%至146 澳元/吨，其中动力煤 同比-15%至136 澳元/吨，炼焦煤同比-26%至203 澳元/吨。2）产量创历史新高。 2025 年公司权益商品煤产量同比+5%至3,860 万吨，接近指引上限（3,500-3,900 万吨），录得历史最好 表现。3）吨煤生产成本小幅改善。以产量口径测算，2025 年剔除权益金的吨煤现金运营成本同比-1 澳 元至92 澳元，符合年度指引（89-97 澳元/吨）。 4）2025 年资本开支同比+7%至7.51 亿澳元，处于年度指引7.5-9.0 亿澳元的下限。5）维持高现金储 备。截至2025 年末，公司在手现金21.3 亿澳元，净现金20.4 亿澳元。6）派息比例稳定。 2025 年公司合计拟派发股利0.18 澳 ...

智通财经获悉，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.32%，报32.6港元，成交额2280.57万港 元。 中金表示，据公告披露，公司2026年权益商品煤产量指引3,650-4,050万吨，剔除权益金的吨煤现金运营 成本指引90-98澳元，资本开支指引7.5-9.0亿澳元。该行认为，2026年在印尼煤炭出口量或下滑，供给 存在扰动的背景下，该行判断澳洲煤价反弹仍有持续性，帮助公司实现业绩改善。 消息面上，近日，兖煤澳大利亚公布2025年业绩，中金指出，25年公司归母净利润4.40亿澳元，同 比-64%，对应每股收益0.33澳元，基本符合该行预期。公司盈利下滑主要系煤价下跌所致。2H25归母 净利润2.77亿澳元，同比/环比-65%/+70%。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

智通财经APP获悉，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.32%，报32.6港元，成交额2280.57万 港元。 消息面上，近日，兖煤澳大利亚公布2025年业绩，中金指出，25年公司归母净利润4.40亿澳元，同 比-64%，对应每股收益0.33澳元，基本符合该行预期。公司盈利下滑主要系煤价下跌所致。2H25归母 净利润2.77亿澳元，同比/环比-65%/+70%。 中金表示，据公告披露，公司2026年权益商品煤产量指引3,650-4,050万吨，剔除权益金的吨煤现金运营 成本指引90-98澳元，资本开支指引7.5-9.0亿澳元。该行认为，2026年在印尼煤炭出口量或下滑，供给 存在扰动的背景下，该行判断澳洲煤价反弹仍有持续性，帮助公司实现业绩改善。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly before the holiday, with expectations for a stronger market post-holiday. Supply has tightened due to the upcoming holiday and production targets being met, while demand has increased due to cold weather affecting power plant consumption [10][11]. - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and a significant decrease in Indonesia's production targets for 2026 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are less affected by production limits [10][15]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jin控煤业 (Jin控 Coal Industry): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 山煤国际 (Shan Coal International): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 潞安环能 (Luan Environmental Energy): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [2]. - 华阳股份 (Huayang Co.): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15 [2]. - 兖矿能源 (Yankuang Energy): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中国神华 (China Shenhua): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 14 [2]. - 陕西煤业 (Shaanxi Coal): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中煤能源 (China Coal Energy): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE ratio of 113 [2]. - 新集能源 (Xinjie Energy): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 8 [2]. - 淮北矿业 (Huaibei Mining): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 7 [2]. - 兰花科创 (Lanhua Sci-Tech): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.0% compared to a 0.1% increase in the CSI 300 index [17][20]. - Notable performers include 陕西黑猫 (Shaanxi Black Cat) with a 14.50% increase and 盘江股份 (Panjiang Coal) with a 13.25% increase [23][24]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply due to production limits and increased demand from power plants, leading to a potential price increase in the coal market [10][11]. - The focus on high dividend yield companies is emphasized as a defensive strategy amid uncertain international conditions [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Coal Market Key Points on Coal Price Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the average daily production of thermal coal in national sample coal mines decreased by over 4% month-on-month, leading to a contraction in domestic supply which is expected to support a rebound in port coal prices [1][2] - The cold wave has stimulated coal demand, and policies from the Central Economic Work Conference and safety production discussions have enhanced market expectations for price support at the bottom [1][2] - Despite high inventory levels, the resumption of coal mines, and cautious terminal procurement, the downside risk for coal prices is limited, with a notable trend of insurance capital increasing allocations to the coal sector at year-end [1][2] Short-term Influencing Factors on Thermal Coal Prices - Key factors affecting thermal coal prices in the short term include the resumption of coal mines after New Year, high terminal inventory, and seasonal demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival [4] - The lowest price point at Qinhuangdao port in 2025 is projected at 609 RMB/ton, close to the 90th percentile of the industry cost curve, indicating a potential uplift in the 2026 low point due to supply regulation policies [4] Long-term Outlook for 2026 Thermal Coal Market - The thermal coal market in 2026 is expected to show a stable upward trend in average prices throughout the year, supported by significant inflows of insurance capital and favorable cost and policy factors [5] - The recommendation is to continue focusing on opportunities for industry dividend allocation [5] Recommended Stocks in the Coal Sector - Three main lines of recommended stocks: 1. **Balanced Growth Stocks**: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Power Investment Corporation [6] 2. **Stable Dividend Stocks**: China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Shenhua Energy [6] 3. **Aggressive Growth Stocks**: Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Pingshan International [6][7] - Shanxi International is highlighted for its stable fourth-quarter performance, with an expected annual dividend yield of 4.5-6% and a price-to-book (PB) ratio at a historical low, indicating a good safety margin [7] Focus on Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at Jintang Port fell from 1,740 RMB to over 1,600 RMB, contrasting with the rebound in thermal coal prices [8] - The coking coal market is currently weak due to the traditional off-season for steel mills, high raw material inventories, and low enthusiasm for winter stockpiling [8] - The expectation is for coking coal prices to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on the winter stockpiling pace of steel mills and changes in supply from production areas leading up to the Spring Festival [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in coal prices is driven by a combination of supply contraction at year-end and marginal demand improvement, alongside strengthened policy support expectations. Despite high inventory levels and cautious purchasing attitudes from end-users, the price decline has a bottom, and there are opportunities for investment in the coal sector as insurance capital is expected to increase allocation to this sector at year-end [2][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.67%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.09 percentage points, ranking 19th out of 32 industries. The price of thermal coal as of December 31 was 678 RMB/ton, up by 6 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of December 30, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 6.116 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. The inventory at power plants was 135 million tons, down 0.3% week-on-week, with a usable days count of 22.0 days, a decrease of 0.1 days [17][35] Price Trends - The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 678 RMB/ton as of December 31, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6 RMB/ton. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port remained stable at 1740 RMB/ton, while the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao port was 1530 RMB/ton, also stable week-on-week [6][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing the coal sector's bottom reversal trend, with stock selection strategies focusing on balanced approaches, leading companies, and those with elastic growth potential. Specific recommendations include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Huayang Co., among others [8][28]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a steady yet slightly strong trend, with prices rising slightly due to cooling temperatures, although there are risks of price stabilization in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main production areas are showing a stable yet slightly strong market trend, with coal prices experiencing a slight increase due to lower temperatures and a recovering trading atmosphere [1] - Downstream power plants have low inventory levels compared to last year, and with the peak winter coal demand approaching, there is a certain level of rigid demand and replenishment needs [2][3] - The Daqin and Tanghu lines maintain high transportation volumes, and the average daily coal input at the ports remains stable, supporting the market [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The cold wave has significantly increased coal consumption, leading power plants to enter a replenishment mode, which is expected to boost procurement quantities [2][3] - The number of vessels at the ports has increased, but adverse weather conditions have led to a higher coal stockpile at certain ports, creating a supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - The overall market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, where prices remain firm but demand is weak, making transactions difficult [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain active as power plants seek to increase their coal inventories in anticipation of higher winter demand, with potential upward pressure on coal prices [3][5] - The supply side is likely to remain tight due to ongoing safety inspections and production capacity restrictions, which may lead to structural shortages in the market [4] - If the ports can accelerate inventory reduction, high-quality coal may become scarce again, potentially leading to a new upward trend in coal prices [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The "check for overproduction" policy has significantly improved supply and demand, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The domestic raw coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of -3.8% and -3.2%, respectively, resulting in a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [4] - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 RMB/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [4] - The rebound in coal prices is a key positive variable for Q3 performance, with the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal reported at 672 RMB/ton, a 6.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The report suggests that winter coal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply-side contraction and increased heating demand [5] Summary by Sections Section: Market Performance - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to effective supply-side policies, with a notable decrease in cumulative supply surplus from 96.29 million tons in the first half of the year to 14.96 million tons by the end of August 2025 [4] Section: Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal in Q3 2025 is projected to be 672 RMB/ton, reflecting a 6.5% increase from the previous quarter, while the long-term contract price slightly decreased by 0.7% [4] - The price of coking coal has also seen a significant increase, with the average price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1562 RMB/ton, an 18.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] Section: Production and Cost Control - The production of listed coal companies is expected to remain within approved capacity limits, with minor fluctuations anticipated. The impact of production on performance is expected to be limited due to the significant rebound in coal prices [4] - Cost control remains a primary focus for coal companies, with expectations that costs will stabilize in Q3 2025 following a period of significant reductions in H1 2025 [4] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding Group [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues to experience an upward trend, driven by supply-side tightening and improving coal price sentiment, with expectations for better demand and pricing in the coming years [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Coal Energy (601898) increased by 6.39%, trading at HKD 10.99 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) rose by 3.28%, trading at HKD 11.34 - China Shenhua Energy (601088) saw a 2.36% increase, trading at HKD 40.76 - Yancoal Australia (03668) gained 1.27%, trading at HKD 28.74 [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Founder Securities, the introduction of production exceeding documents has significantly impacted coal price sentiment, indicating a shift from oversupply to a more balanced supply-demand scenario [1] - The coal demand is expected to rise due to high consumption levels during the summer of 2025, leading to an improved coal supply-demand structure [1] - The gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies may also restrict imported coal in the future [1] Group 3: Profit Outlook - Guosen Securities noted that while coal prices have been declining and profits for coal companies have been poor in early 2024, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability for coal enterprises [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to show upward price elasticity for coal, with the coal sector's performance lagging behind other sectors but showing clear bottoming signals [1]