本周，北方大风导致封航较多，环渤海港口尤其曹妃甸四港库存上行幅度较大，市场煤炭源供应相对充 足，使得供给方在挺价的同时面临较大压力。整体市场呈现"有价无市"格局，报价坚挺但需求冷淡，成 交难以实现，价格缺乏明确走势，各热值煤种报价均面临压力。截止目前，环渤海八港合计存煤2448万 吨，较月初（2206万吨）增加了242万吨，但较去年同期（2716万吨）仍低268万吨，一旦采购增加，港 口去库之后，货源结构性紧缺问题会再次出现。后续来看，年底煤矿检修与产量管控仍在持续，供应偏 紧的格局短期内难以缓解，叠加高企的发运成本，部分铁路线路和站台的煤炭运费又有新的调整，发运 成本再次增加，预计货源集港量仍将有限。受益于冬季取暖与工业用电负荷的双重支撑，需求端有望持 续回暖，港口开航后，垒库难度较大。此外，安全生产考核巡查已正式启动，叠加国内"反内卷"政策持 续推进，煤矿超能力生产受到限制，供给端或延续偏紧态势；而冬季用煤高峰到来以及年底项目建设带 来的耗煤量增加的预期等等，下游需求有望持续向好。整体来看，后续供需结构并不宽松，煤市稍作喘 息之后，或再次回归偏强运行通道。 （来源：BSPI秦皇岛煤炭网） 气温下降带动用电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The "check for overproduction" policy has significantly improved supply and demand, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The domestic raw coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of -3.8% and -3.2%, respectively, resulting in a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [4] - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 RMB/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [4] - The rebound in coal prices is a key positive variable for Q3 performance, with the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal reported at 672 RMB/ton, a 6.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The report suggests that winter coal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply-side contraction and increased heating demand [5] Summary by Sections Section: Market Performance - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to effective supply-side policies, with a notable decrease in cumulative supply surplus from 96.29 million tons in the first half of the year to 14.96 million tons by the end of August 2025 [4] Section: Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal in Q3 2025 is projected to be 672 RMB/ton, reflecting a 6.5% increase from the previous quarter, while the long-term contract price slightly decreased by 0.7% [4] - The price of coking coal has also seen a significant increase, with the average price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1562 RMB/ton, an 18.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] Section: Production and Cost Control - The production of listed coal companies is expected to remain within approved capacity limits, with minor fluctuations anticipated. The impact of production on performance is expected to be limited due to the significant rebound in coal prices [4] - Cost control remains a primary focus for coal companies, with expectations that costs will stabilize in Q3 2025 following a period of significant reductions in H1 2025 [4] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding Group [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues to experience an upward trend, driven by supply-side tightening and improving coal price sentiment, with expectations for better demand and pricing in the coming years [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Coal Energy (601898) increased by 6.39%, trading at HKD 10.99 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) rose by 3.28%, trading at HKD 11.34 - China Shenhua Energy (601088) saw a 2.36% increase, trading at HKD 40.76 - Yancoal Australia (03668) gained 1.27%, trading at HKD 28.74 [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Founder Securities, the introduction of production exceeding documents has significantly impacted coal price sentiment, indicating a shift from oversupply to a more balanced supply-demand scenario [1] - The coal demand is expected to rise due to high consumption levels during the summer of 2025, leading to an improved coal supply-demand structure [1] - The gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies may also restrict imported coal in the future [1] Group 3: Profit Outlook - Guosen Securities noted that while coal prices have been declining and profits for coal companies have been poor in early 2024, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability for coal enterprises [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to show upward price elasticity for coal, with the coal sector's performance lagging behind other sectors but showing clear bottoming signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a rebound, with several coal stocks showing significant increases, driven by expectations of improved profits and rising coal prices in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Mongol Mining (00975) increased by 10.03%, reaching HKD 13.6 [1] - Shougang Resources (00639) rose by 5.28%, reaching HKD 2.99 [1] - China Qinfa (00866) saw a rise of 4.47%, reaching HKD 3.04 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668) increased by 1.96%, reaching HKD 28.04 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 1.8%, reaching HKD 10.2 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Guosen Securities predicts a rebound in coal prices in the second half of 2025, which is expected to improve coal company profits [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show upward elasticity in coal prices, with the coal sector underperforming compared to other sectors [1] - Post-holiday, coal prices have quickly stopped declining and started to rebound, indicating a tightening supply expectation [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - During the double festival period and after, continuous rain has impacted coal supply, with maintenance on the Daqin Railway and the initiation of winter storage contributing to short-term price support [1] - For coking coal, downstream iron and steel production remains high, but confidence among coking enterprises to raise prices is low, leading to a cautious outlook [1] - October is still a peak demand season, with low total inventory levels for coal, coke, and steel providing support for coal prices, while coking coal is expected to continue a volatile trend [1]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have mostly risen, with Mongol Mining up 10.03% to HKD 13.6, Shougang Resources up 5.28% to HKD 2.99, and China Qinfa up 4.47% to HKD 3.04 [1] - Guosen Securities reports that coal prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, improving coal company profits, with the fourth quarter showing potential for price increases due to tightening supply expectations [1] - After the holiday, coal prices quickly stopped falling and rebounded, indicating a sustained expectation of supply tightening, which raises the price floor for coal [1] Group 2 - Datong Securities notes that during the holiday period and after, continuous rain has affected coal supply, with maintenance on the Daqin Railway and the start of winter storage supporting short-term coal price strength [1] - For coking coal, downstream iron and steel production remains high, but coking enterprises are hesitant to raise prices, leading to a cautious outlook, while October remains a peak demand season [1] - The total inventory of coal, coke, and steel is at a low level, providing support for coal prices, with coking coal expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to contract due to the upcoming safety production inspections, which may lead to an increase in coal prices as demand rises in November [2][3]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Supply Impact - In November, 22 safety inspection teams will enter 31 provinces and regions to conduct annual assessments, focusing on major safety issues and illegal activities in production [2]. - The inspections may lead to rectifications of safety hazards related to overproduction in the coal sector, further tightening coal supply [2][3]. - Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with expectations of further reductions due to the inspections [2]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - The coal price has rebounded during the off-season, stabilizing above 700 yuan/ton by the end of September, primarily due to supply contraction [3]. - As the heating season begins in mid-November, the demand for coal is expected to increase, particularly from non-electric sectors like coal chemical industries, which may support coal prices [3]. - The anticipated supply reduction is expected to end the seasonal price decline early, with projections suggesting coal prices could exceed 900 yuan/ton by year-end [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising coal prices, with a focus on companies with high spot market exposure [3]. - Recommended investment targets include: 1. Companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy [3]. 2. Stable and growth-oriented companies like Jincheng Anthracite Mining and Huayang Co., Ltd. [3]. 3. Companies with recovery in production, such as Shanxi Coal International [3]. 4. Industry leaders with stable performance, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies based on their performance and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming safety production assessments are expected to lead to a contraction in coal supply, which may support a rebound in coal prices. Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, and the anticipated inspections may further tighten supply [1][2]. - The coal price has shown signs of recovery, stabilizing above 700 RMB/ton by the end of September 2025. The report predicts that by the end of the year, coal prices could exceed 900 RMB/ton due to supply constraints and increased demand from the coal chemical sector [2]. - The report highlights several investment opportunities within the sector, particularly focusing on companies with high spot market exposure and those expected to benefit from supply-demand dynamics [2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The safety inspections scheduled for November 2025 are likely to impact coal supply negatively, reinforcing expectations of reduced output. This is particularly relevant as the country transitions into the heating season, which typically sees increased demand [1][2]. - The report notes that the coal chemical sector is poised to benefit from the seasonal demand increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies based on their market positioning and expected performance: 1. **High Spot Market Exposure**: Lu'an Huanneng (潞安环能) is highlighted for its significant elasticity in response to price changes. 2. **Stable Growth Companies**: Jin控煤业 (晋控煤业) and Huayang Co., Ltd. (华阳股份) are recommended for their robust performance. 3. **Recovery in Production**: Shanmei International (山煤国际) is noted for its potential production recovery. 4. **Industry Leaders**: China Shenhua (中国神华), Zhongmei Energy (中煤能源), and Shaanxi Coal (陕西煤业) are recognized for their stable earnings [2][4].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The coal supply in China is experiencing disturbances, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices as demand remains supported during peak summer and high iron and steel production levels [1] - As of September 16, 2025, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports is 22.785 million tons, lower than the 23.01 million tons recorded in the same period of 2024 [1] - The "overproduction check" policy suggests that domestic coal production may not return to the levels seen in the first half of the year, indicating a tighter supply-demand balance [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - The company is expected to achieve a coal production volume of 180-190 million tons in 2025, an increase of over 40 million tons year-on-year, driven by capacity releases from new mines and acquisitions [2] - The total capacity of the company's operational, under-construction, and planned mines has reached 320 million tons per year, with a goal of achieving 300 million tons of raw coal by 2030 [2] - The company plans to reduce its coal sales cost by 3%-5% year-on-year in 2025, with the cost of self-produced coal in the first half of 2025 being 328 RMB per ton, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company commits to distributing cash dividends amounting to approximately 60% of its net profit after statutory reserves for the years 2023-2025, with a minimum cash dividend of 0.5 RMB per share [3] - For the first half of 2025, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.18 RMB per share and intends to repurchase shares worth 0.5-1 billion RMB for A shares and 1.5-4 billion RMB for H shares [3] - The H shares of the company have a higher dividend yield compared to peers, with a projected yield of 9.4% in 2024, and a current yield of 5.3% based on the minimum dividend commitment [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company's net profit is projected to be 8.94 billion RMB, 9.65 billion RMB, and 10.69 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -38%, +7.9%, and +10.8% respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 0.89 RMB, 0.96 RMB, and 1.07 RMB, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.2, 14.1, and 12.7 [4] - The company's performance is anticipated to benefit from a rebound in coal prices and gradual release of coal production capacity [4]

Q&A 近期内蒙古发布了关于煤矿超产核查的通报文件，提到了一些具体矿井的超产 现象及后续停产整顿措施。陕西方面在超产核查方面有哪些最新进展？涉及的 产能量级如何？ 最近由于能源局发布了关于煤矿核查的文件，各省都在积极落实，包括内蒙古 和陕西。7 月份下发文件后，要求每个煤矿自行核查，并进行抽检。目前已转 入全面核查阶段。据了解，煤炭行业普遍存在超产现象，因为煤炭开采相较于 其他行业没有明显上限，可以达到一倍甚至两倍的超产。而化工行业基本只能 达到 110%的生产能力。近年来，由于政策、安全环保等因素的严查，这种情 况有所改善。然而，不同企业和地区情况仍有差异。 从动机来看，煤矿超产主 要是为了追求利润，尤其是在 2020 年和 2022 年煤价疯涨期间，无论是国企 还是民企，都普遍存在这种现象。但自去年（2024 年）开始，随着煤价下行， 部分煤矿接近成本线，多挖一吨或多卖一吨并不能带来显著利润，有些企业甚 预计 10 月至 11 月冬储期间煤价会有 50-60 元/吨左右的涨幅，个别品 种可能上涨 100 元/吨。陕西省煤化工项目主要由大型企业主导，未来 新增项目需通过产能置换实现。 当前煤炭行业管控措施严 ...

Group 1: Coal Market Overview - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded, with expectations for continued upward momentum due to improving fundamentals [1] - Domestic coal prices have shown a consistent increase, while port coal prices have stabilized and rebounded during the week [1] - Supply-side analysis indicates a reduction in excess production capacity of approximately 230 million tons due to production inspections, with an additional 400 million tons of production halted due to lack of approval for capacity increases [1] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Current demand for thermal coal is transitioning into the off-season, but non-electric demand is expected to gradually release, particularly in the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period [1] - Coal chemical consumption has maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 10% since the beginning of the year, increasing to over 15% since May [1] - Policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity in the refining industry are expected to enhance the competitiveness of coal chemicals against oil-based chemicals, thereby supporting new demand for coal [1] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Port inventories have decreased due to production cuts, leading to a seasonal destocking effect, although there remains a significant imbalance in shipping [1] - Current coal prices are around 700 yuan per ton, with traders showing low purchasing sentiment due to the transition between peak and off-peak seasons [1] - The combination of declining port inventories and continued supply contraction under production restrictions is expected to support a sustained increase in coal prices, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [1] Group 4: Coking Coal Market Insights - Coking coal prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term, with supply recovering as previously halted mines resume production [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has compressed profit margins, and steel mills are primarily purchasing based on demand without significant improvement in terminal demand [2] - Anticipated supply reductions due to production inspections and the upcoming peak season suggest potential upward price movement for coking coal [2] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations include focusing on high spot price elasticity stocks, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, and stable growth stocks like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co., Ltd. [2] - Companies expected to benefit from production recovery include Shanxi Coal International, while industry leaders with stable performance include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [2] - Additionally, companies benefiting from nuclear power growth, such as CGN Mining, are highlighted as strong investment opportunities [2]