中国煤炭成本十年变迁：刚性抬升重塑安全边际 20250912 摘要 煤炭行业中的部分成本具有弹性，可以通过管理措施进行压降。例如，从价计 征的一些资源费（如资源税）会随市场价格波动而调整，这部分费用相对弹性 较大。此外，一些可变费用，如运输费用、临时劳务费用等，也可以在一定程 度上进行控制和压降。 然而，还有一些刚性产生且难以压降的固定成本。这些 包括： 2. 前期亏欠成本弥补：在 2011 年至 2015 年的十二五时期，许多企业处 于亏损状态，甚至连工资都难以发放。随着市场回暖，这些企业逐步恢 复正常生产，并补发职工绩效、薪酬，以及增加设备、安全投入等。 3. 政策推动：例如，2017 年政府去产能重心转向结构性去产能，加速产 能置换；2021 年因供应紧张，发改委敦促企业加大保供力度。这些政 策措施也对成本产生了一定影响。 1. 职工薪酬及福利：随着市场回暖后，为弥补前期亏欠，公司需要补发职 工绩效、薪酬等，这部分支出具有刚性。 2. 设备及安全投入：为了维持正常生产运营，需要持续投入设备维护、安 全设施等，这部分支出也是必不可少且难以削减的。 3. 政策相关支出：如政府推动去产能、保供力度等政策要求下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the systematic increase in coal costs over the past decade has solidified the safety margin for coal prices, with current cash cost support for port thermal coal prices at approximately 550 RMB/ton [3][9]. - It highlights that the coal price bottom is unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2015, reinforcing the profitability and dividend safety margins for coal companies [3][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report introduces the importance of cost research in establishing the safety margin for coal prices, indicating that a high cost-supported price bottom can enhance dividend value [6][20]. Overall Cost Trends - Over the past decade, coal company costs have increased by nearly 50%, with a CAGR of approximately 4% [6][24]. - The weighted average sales cost for coal in 2024 is projected to be 300 RMB/ton, down 2% year-on-year, while the complete cost is expected to be 380 RMB/ton, down 3% year-on-year [6][24]. Cost Structure - The cost structure for coal companies in 2024 is composed of labor costs (32%), other expenses (30%), raw materials (14%), depreciation (12%), safety costs (9%), and manufacturing costs (3%) [7][41]. - Labor costs, depreciation, and safety expenses have seen the most significant increases over the past decade, with labor costs rising by 28 RMB/ton [7][41]. Cost Curve Analysis - The cash cost curve for port thermal coal has shifted, with the 90th percentile cash cost now supporting prices around 550 RMB/ton [8][9]. - The complete cost curve for thermal coal has also increased, with the 90th percentile complete cost now between 370-423 RMB/ton [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the systematic increase in costs has solidified the safety margin for coal prices, recommending several companies for investment based on their resilience and growth potential [9][11]. - Recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy [9].