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中国神华预计上半年业绩同比下滑 今日煤炭股集体上行,拐点已至?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-14 06:24
Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua expects a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to decreased coal sales volume and average selling prices, despite a stable overall operational performance [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 236 billion to 256 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease of 39 billion to 59 billion yuan, or a decline of 13.2% to 20.0% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in profit is primarily due to lower coal sales volume and average selling prices, leading to reduced profitability in the coal segment [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Data - In June, the coal production was 27.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with a cumulative production of 165 million tons for the first half, down 1.7% [3]. - Coal sales in June were 37.5 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales volume of 205 million tons for the first half, reflecting a decline of 10.9% [3]. - The total power generation in June was 18.19 billion kWh, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year, but the cumulative generation for the first half was 98.78 billion kWh, down 7.4% [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The coal industry is experiencing a "strong supply and weak demand" scenario, with significant pressure on coal prices and company operations [4][5]. - As of the end of June, the spot price for 5500 kcal thermal coal was approximately 619 yuan per ton, down 150 yuan from the beginning of the year and down 247 yuan year-on-year, a decline of 28.5% [5][6]. - The market is expected to maintain this "strong supply and weak demand" pattern in the second half of the year, with limited potential for price recovery despite seasonal demand increases [6].