广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。总体来 看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。该行认为26年煤炭价格中枢有望提升至750元/吨左 右，龙头公司股息率多为4-6%水平，优势明显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。 煤炭股集体走高，截至发稿，中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨4.94%，报10.41港元；兖矿能源（600188） (01171)涨2.87%，报10.03港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨2.88%，报40.02港元。 消息面上，11月下旬以来，港口动力煤价格持续单边下跌，从高点834元/吨跌至低点670元/吨，并在12 月31日终迎反弹，单日上涨8元/吨至678元/吨。长江证券认为，本次反弹核心驱动在于供给年末收缩与 需求边际改善的共振，叠加政策托底预期强化。尽管高库存环境、元旦后煤矿逐步复产、终端采购谨慎 心态或仍共同制约煤价反弹力度，然而价格下行有底得以体现，叠加岁末年初险资有望增配煤炭板块， 当前时点建议继续重视煤炭红利配置机会。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - Recent coal prices have been declining, raising concerns about future price trends. The supply side is expected to remain tight due to year-end production cuts and the imposition of export taxes by Indonesia, while demand may improve with the new year's long-term contracts and seasonal increases in consumption [2][7] - The coal price is anticipated to stabilize and recover in the short term due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity in the coal sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points, ranking 19th out of 32 industries [6][22] - As of December 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 703 CNY/ton, down 42 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 CNY/ton, up 110 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of December 18, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 580.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 9.8% year-on-year. The inventory at power plants was 134 million tons, with a usable days count of 23.2 days, an increase of 0.3 days week-on-week [17][36] - The supply side is influenced by production cuts at coal mines and the impact of export taxes from Indonesia, which could tighten supply further [7][17] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal has seen a significant decline, with a monthly drop of 105 CNY/ton (-13%), nearly erasing gains from October [7][43] - The report suggests that while coal prices are currently under pressure, improvements in supply and demand dynamics could provide a floor for prices in the near term [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal sector investments, particularly as the first quarter is typically a period of increased insurance capital inflow, which may enhance the attractiveness of coal stocks [7][12]