（来源：研报虎） 风险提示：1)下游需求不及预期；2)煤价大幅下跌；3)政策变化风险。 煤价加速上涨，供给强收缩下后市涨价动能持续。本周节前补库需求释放，叠加发运倒挂严重，港口结 构性缺货加剧，产地及港口煤价加速上涨。展望后市，供给侧，2025年7月以来，全国原煤产量单月同 比降幅均超过3%，内蒙古超产核查落地进一步加强供给收缩预期，减量有望持续。需求侧，当前电煤 需求转入淡季，非电需求有望逐步提升，其中煤化工耗煤需求年初以来基本维持10%以上同比增速，后 续伴随旺季需求释放以及对油头化工替代性增强，煤化工盈利提升并将对煤炭形成新的需求支撑。在供 给减量影响下，煤价淡季回调提前结束，当前港口库存持续下移，后续供给强收缩将进一步增强涨价动 能，我们预计年底煤价或回到900元/吨以上。板块方面，供需改善，煤价反弹，高现货比例标的弹性更 为充足，同时山西省2024年已完成超产治理，受本轮"限超产"影响最小，建议关注山西标的。 投资建议：标的方面，我们推荐以下投资主线：1)高现货比例弹性标的，建议关注潞安环能。2)业绩稳 健、成长型标的，建议关注晋控煤业、华阳股份。3)产量恢复性增长，建议关注山煤国际。4)行业龙头 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the overproduction of coal in Inner Mongolia, with a significant portion of coal mines exceeding their approved production capacities, leading to potential supply constraints and price rebounds in the coal market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production Data - In 2024, Inner Mongolia's coal production exceeded the approved capacity by 6,116.9 thousand tons, resulting in an overproduction rate of 4.95% [1][2]. - For the first half of 2025, the region's coal production surpassed the approved capacity by 2,121.9 thousand tons, with an overproduction rate of 3.43% [1][2]. - A total of 299 coal mines were reviewed, with a combined capacity of 123,570 thousand tons per year, and 93 mines were found to be operating above their announced capacities [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - Strict enforcement of overproduction regulations is in place, with 15 coal mines in Ordos City required to halt operations for rectification due to exceeding production limits by 10% [3]. - The combined capacity of these 15 mines is estimated at 3,220 thousand tons per year, representing 2.61% of Inner Mongolia's total capacity [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The supply of coal is expected to continue contracting, potentially impacting around 400 million tons of supply due to ongoing regulatory measures and the transition of some capacities to "reserve" status [3]. - As the demand for electricity coal shifts into a low season, non-electric demand is anticipated to gradually increase, which may support a rebound in coal prices [3]. - The current market conditions, characterized by declining port inventories and ongoing supply restrictions, are expected to improve the fundamentals of the coal market, leading to a potential price increase back to levels seen in Q3 2024 [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high spot price elasticity stocks, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, and stable growth stocks like Jinko Coal Industry and Huayang Co., Ltd. [4]. - It also recommends monitoring companies with recovery growth in production, such as Shanxi Coal International, and industry leaders like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Lu'an Huanneng, Huayang Co., Shanmei International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Jinkong Coal [4]. Core Insights - The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau has confirmed the overproduction of coal, with a theoretical reduction in raw coal output of 61.17 million tons year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - In 2024, Inner Mongolia's coal production exceeded the approved capacity by 61.17 million tons, representing an overproduction rate of 4.95% [1]. - The report anticipates a continued contraction in supply due to strict enforcement of overproduction regulations, which could theoretically impact supply by approximately 400 million tons [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to gradually increase as the market transitions from the off-peak season, with a potential price rebound supported by declining port inventories and ongoing supply restrictions [3]. Summary by Sections Overproduction and Regulatory Actions - A total of 93 coal mines were found to be operating above their approved production capacities in Inner Mongolia, with 30% of the inspected mines exceeding their capacities by over 110% in 2024 [2]. - Approximately 32.2 million tons per year of production capacity is pending verification before resuming operations, affecting 15 mines in the Ordos region [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report suggests that the supply side is likely to continue contracting, which, combined with seasonal demand increases, may lead to a recovery in coal prices back to levels seen in Q3 2024 [3]. - The report highlights that traders are currently cautious, but the fundamentals are improving, which could support a price increase [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market exposure, stable performance, and growth potential, including Lu'an Huanneng, Jinkong Coal, and industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [3].