煤炭行业资深专家电话会议 20251114 摘要 2025 年中国煤炭进口量预计约为 4.8 亿吨，较 2024 年减少 6,000 万 吨，主要受煤价下跌和印尼政策影响。11 月煤价快速上涨导致电厂暂停 1 月份招标采购，可能影响 12 月进口量。 印尼 2025 年煤炭计划产量 7.35 亿吨，但实际产量或低于预期，小煤矿 因成本和劣质煤限制停产，俄罗斯冬季出海受限也影响供应。预计第四 季度月均进口量约 4,000 万吨。 印尼小煤矿 FOB 价格 55 美元时即亏损，目前 3,800 大卡印尼煤 FOB 价格约为 52 美元，导致小型矿山停产。即使价格回升，恢复生产也需 3-6 个月。 印尼政府计划 2026 年将煤炭产量降至 7 亿吨，旨在稳定煤价和税收， 因 2025 年煤价下跌影响税收收入。HBA 指数定价机制是稳定税收的重 要手段。 中国市场上 3,800 卡印尼煤与国内 4,500 卡煤价差超 100 元/吨，但近 期国内煤价虚高，电厂倾向于完成长协任务，价差对实际采购影响有限。 Q&A 目前港口动力煤价格已经突破 820 元，进口煤在价格上仍具有一定优势。如何 看待第四季度进口煤的市场冲击？ ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about coal and lignite import data in June 2025 and related market analysis [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The decline in coal prices is mainly due to domestic trade pressure, and imported coal is in a following state. After the price of coking coal stabilizes, it rebounds. The situation of month - on - month import reduction is expected to ease in July, but the annual coal import volume will decrease. The static annualized coal import volume in 2025 is only 440 million tons, a significant reduction compared to last year's 640 million tons. Whether it can return to the pre - pandemic soft quota range of 300 million tons requires more policy guidance [2] Group 4: Data Summary - In June 2025, China imported 3007000 tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 3003000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 8.3%. From January to June, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 22170200 tons, a year - on - year decline of 11.1% [2]

Core Insights - The General Administration of Customs reported that China's coal and lignite imports reached 221.702 million tons from January to June [1] Group 1 - The total import volume of coal and lignite indicates a significant demand for these energy resources in China [1]

海关总署：中国1-5月煤及褐煤进口量18867.1万吨。 ...

海关总署：中国5月煤及褐煤进口3604万吨，4月为3782.5万吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In April, China's coal and lignite imports amounted to 37.825 million tons, a decrease from 38.732 million tons in March [1] Group 1 - China's coal and lignite imports in April were 37.825 million tons [1] - The imports in March were recorded at 38.732 million tons, indicating a decline [1]

Core Insights - The General Administration of Customs reported that China's coal and lignite imports from January to April amounted to 152.67 million tons [1] Group 1 - The total coal and lignite import volume reflects significant demand in the Chinese market [1]