从财务及固定资产视角看价格支撑 - 煤炭成本专题研究 20250825 摘要 煤炭企业生产成本逐年上升，人工成本占比最高超 20%，材料和动力成 本占比约 20%，折旧及摊销成本在 10%-20%之间，安全维检费在 15%-20%之间，修理费约 5%。 煤炭行业间接费用率整体下降，管理费用占比最大（约 8%），职工薪 酬占管理费用过半。销售费用因运输成本调整大幅下降，财务费用因利 率降低和资产负债结构优化而降低，研发投入则因行业转型升级而提高。 资源税是煤炭企业税金及附加的主要组成部分，部分省份上调资源税以 增加财政收入，如山西和新疆分别上调至 10%和 9%。煤炭企业的税金 及附加大约占吨煤收入的 10%。 2015 年至 2023 年，动力煤吨煤完全平均成本提高约 130 元/吨，炼焦 煤完全平均每吨提高 307 元左右，炼焦煤涨幅更高，主要受人工成本、 安全维检费提高影响。 人工成本上升源于低成本劳动力红利消失、通胀导致工资上涨以及国家 对安全生产规范用工的要求提升，例如取消井下劳务派遣工等政策。 Q&A 煤炭企业的生产成本构成及其变化趋势是什么？ 煤炭企业的生产成本主要由生产成本、间接费用和税金及附加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal's production and sales volumes showed mixed results in 2Q25, with production increasing but sales declining due to logistical challenges, leading to a downward revision of earnings forecasts while maintaining a BUY rating based on expected improvements in sales ratios and thermal coal price recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Sales Performance - Yancoal's attributable production volume in 2Q25 grew by 15% YoY to 9.4 million tonnes, while attributable sales volume decreased by 6% YoY to 8.1 million tonnes [1]. - The sales volume of thermal coal decreased by 9% YoY to 6.8 million tonnes, while metallurgical coal sales increased by 30% YoY to 1.3 million tonnes [1]. - In 1H25, total attributable production volume increased by 11% YoY to 18.9 million tonnes, accounting for 48-54% of the full-year guidance of 35-39 million tonnes [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yancoal's revenue in 2Q25 was approximately A$1.14 billion, representing a 26% YoY decline and a 14% QoQ decline [1]. - The blended average selling price (ASP) dropped by 22% YoY in 2Q25, with thermal ASP down 20% YoY to A$130 per tonne and metallurgical ASP down 38% YoY to A$197 per tonne [2]. - As of June 2025, Yancoal held a gross cash balance of A$1.8 billion, which is about 20% of its current market capitalization [2]. Group 3: Guidance and Outlook - Yancoal's full-year guidance remains unchanged, with attributable saleable production expected to be between 35-39 million tonnes, operating cash costs projected at A$89-97 per tonne, and capital expenditures estimated at A$750-900 million [3]. - Management expresses confidence in reaching the upper end of the production guidance range for the full year [1].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry and a specific coal company’s performance and market conditions. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Stability**: The average selling price of coal has stabilized around 380, with slight increases noted in June compared to May, which was also around 380 [1][2] 2. **Market Recovery**: There are indications of market recovery as the price has returned to approximately 390 or above, although real-time comprehensive data is not available [2] 3. **Import Coal Predictions**: It is anticipated that coal imports will decrease, with projections suggesting a reduction of several million tons for the year [3] 4. **Production Capacity**: The company is operating at full production capacity, indicating limited room for growth in output [4] 5. **Regulatory Environment**: There are ongoing discussions about expediting the approval process for new mining projects, which is currently complex and time-consuming [5] 6. **Industry Self-Regulation Challenges**: The coal industry faces challenges in self-regulation, necessitating administrative intervention due to the complexity and diversity of enterprises involved [6][7] 7. **Sales Strategy**: The company is focused on maintaining profit margins through strategic sales policies, despite the current market conditions [8] 8. **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain or increase dividend payouts, reflecting confidence in financial performance despite price fluctuations [9] 9. **Cost Management**: The production cost is stable at around 290, with expectations that costs will remain manageable throughout the year [10] 10. **Long-term Resource Availability**: The company estimates that current resources can sustain production for approximately 70 years, assuming no significant depletion occurs [15][16] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Freight Costs**: The discussion includes the implications of freight costs on revenue and how they are accounted for in financial reporting [12][14] - **Coal Production Data**: Clarification on the production data and how certain companies are not included in the reported figures [16] - **Electricity Generation Contribution**: The coal company’s contribution to electricity generation is noted, with figures indicating a slight increase in revenue from this segment [17][18] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current market position, strategic outlook, and operational challenges within the coal industry.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report concludes that as of late June, coal production in major producing areas has declined, but overall supply remains relatively abundant. Power plant inventory depletion is slow, and with the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintain necessary purchases. Port inventory is continuously decreasing. As temperatures rise nationwide, power plant daily consumption will continue to increase seasonally, and there will be necessary purchases later. The port FOB price is temporarily stable, and coal prices in the pithead area are expected to remain stable [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On June 23, port market price - holding sentiment persisted, and trader quotes continued to rise. For example, the 5500 - kcal market quote was 615 - 620 yuan/ton, and different regions had their own price ranges for various coal types [3]. Important News - In May 2025, China imported 2865.3 million tons of thermal coal (non - coking coal), a year - on - year decrease of 16.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of thermal coal was 14500.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May 2025, China imported 738.7 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Pithead prices have temporarily stopped falling and stabilized. Some coal mines have shut down, and the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have declined. As of June 22, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 66%, and in Yulin it was 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 3.7 million tons, but the overall domestic supply was still abundant. The domestic and imported markets showed different trends, with the domestic coal price basically stable and imported coal prices falling [5]. - **Demand**: Power plant loads were generally low, and inventories were at high levels. Power plants mainly relied on long - term contract coal. Some coastal power plants had nearly completed their August imported coal purchases. Non - power sectors such as cement had low operating rates, while the operating rates of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea were high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair, providing stable support for coal prices in the pithead area [5]. - **Inventory**: Due to shipping losses, port inflows decreased. The daily average freight volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line dropped to 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau dropped to around 30. Outflows were low, and port inventory continued to decrease. As of June 23, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports was around 26.7 million tons, a reduction of 5 million tons from the high level but still relatively high. Coastal power plant daily consumption increased seasonally, but inventory depletion was slow, and inland power plant inventories remained high [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize with the Market" rating for the coal industry [1][5][42] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply growth rate has slowed down, with a cumulative production of 1.585 billion tons from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, but the growth rate is declining [3][13] - Demand is supported by infrastructure investment, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.0% year-on-year in the same period, while the real estate sector continues to show negative growth [4][17] - Coal imports have shown a negative growth trend, with a cumulative import volume of 15.267 million tons from January to April 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year [24] - Coal prices, particularly for thermal and coking coal, have been under pressure, with prices for Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal decreasing since the beginning of 2025 [26][38] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The growth rate of raw coal supply has significantly decreased, with April's production at 389 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking a substantial decline from the previous month [3][13] Demand Side - The terminal demand from January to April 2025 is supported by infrastructure, with non-electric demand performing better than electric demand. The cumulative growth rate for thermal power is -4.1%, while coking coal and pig iron show positive growth [4][20] Import Coal - The coal import growth rate remains negative, with April's imports at 3.783 million tons, down 16.4% year-on-year [24] Price and Profit Performance - Coal prices have been under pressure, with the average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal decreasing since the start of 2025 [26][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business such as Xinjie Energy and Huahua Energy, as well as those with a large proportion like Shaanxi Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy [5][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [5]. Core Insights - Non-electric demand for coal remains high, with a focus on the recovery of thermal coal demand during the peak season. The average daily pig iron output from 247 blast furnaces reached 2.4442 million tons, up 1.8% week-on-week and 6.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period in the past five years [1]. - Cement clinker capacity utilization is at 58.2%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year, significantly higher than the same period last year [1]. - The Ministry of Finance has arranged for a total of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds this year, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to 2024, with 800 billion yuan allocated for greater support of "two heavy" projects, suggesting that infrastructure investment growth will remain high, supporting non-electric coal demand [1]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (5500 kcal weekly average) was 658 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.90%) week-on-week [2]. - The average price of mixed thermal coal at the pit in Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 521 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-2.07%) week-on-week [2]. - The FOB price of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia (5500 kcal weekly average) was 71 USD/ton, up 0.11% week-on-week [2]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants (approximately 50% of national washing capacity) was 63.0%, up 1.1 percentage points week-on-week but down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a low level for the same period in five years [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 91.60%, up 1.45 percentage points week-on-week and 6.07 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Inventory Levels - As of April 25, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.89 million tons, up 0.58% week-on-week and up 35.63% year-on-year, remaining at a high level for the same period [4]. - The total coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 31.099 million tons, down 2.66% week-on-week but up 32.63% year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the recent significant declines in oil and gas prices, coal prices have shown resilience. The report suggests that the further downside for port thermal coal prices is limited, considering that the current port spot prices are below long-term contract prices. It is recommended to adopt a defensive approach towards the sector, favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4].