智通财经APP获悉，山西证券发布研报称，全煤种进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降，11月当月各 煤种价格均环比增加，其中动力煤环比涨幅相对更大。煤炭行业反内卷趋势未变，4季度业绩仍有改善 预期，若价格长期高位运行，26年业绩仍具备修复空间。股价下跌强化红利价值，可逢低配置。 山西证券主要观点如下： 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价上涨 进口量方面，1-11月累计增速实现-12.0%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势;进口煤当月同比连续9个月 保持负增速，其中11月进口煤同比降19.88%、环比增5.53%。分煤种来看，四大煤种均呈现单月环比正 增，其中无烟煤环比增速较快。动力煤环比小幅增量主要是因为蒙古和俄罗斯进口量增加;炼焦煤环比 小幅增量主要由蒙古贡献;褐煤环比增量主要由印度尼西亚贡献;无烟煤环比增量主要来自俄罗斯。价格 方面，11月当月全煤种进口价格实现73美元/吨，维持同比回落趋势，11月当月环比增1.42美元/吨。分 煤种看，全煤种进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降，11月当月各煤种价格均环比增加，其中动力煤 环比涨幅相对更大。 11月国内进口煤呈现"量减价增"的特征。过去几年11月往往是进口煤旺季，进 ...

三大港口煤炭库存月环比同比上升，六大发电集团日均耗煤量月环比上升。截至12月15日，秦皇岛港、 黄骅港、曹妃甸港三港煤炭库存合计1490.00万吨，环比上月上升200.80万吨，涨幅15.58%；同比上升 101.00万吨，涨幅7.27%。六大发电集团日均耗煤量共82.66万吨，环比上月上升3.05万吨，涨幅3.83%； 同比下降3.29万吨，降幅3.83%。 国内运费月环比下跌、国际海运费涨跌不一。截至12月15日，从秦皇岛到上海航线上4-5万DWT的 CBCFI报收23.80元/吨，较上月环比降幅为48.37%；从秦皇岛到宁波航线上1.5-2万DWT的CBCFI报收 38.90元/吨，较上月环比降幅为32.58%。澳洲纽卡斯尔-中国煤炭海运费（巴拿马型）报收16.20美元/ 吨，环比上月下降0.4美元/吨，降幅为2.41%；印尼塔巴尼奥-中国广州（50000MT/10%）的煤炭CDFI程 租报收9.40美元/吨，环比上月上升0.18美元/吨，涨幅为1.97%。 结论：国内动力煤价格环比上月下降，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港NEWC岸价格环比上升。11月陕晋蒙三省国 有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量陕环比下降，晋蒙环比上升。三 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 冷空气来袭、库存有望去化，旺季 煤价仍有支撑 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.29-2025.12.5） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至12月5日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 589、683、785 元/吨，均环比下跌 30、30、31 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 194.76 万吨，环比上周减少 10.36 万 吨，但同比上升 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to a combination of recovering port operations, colder weather, and the need for power plants to replenish their stocks. The demand for coal is anticipated to increase as winter progresses, despite current weak consumption levels [7][8]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy which is expected to continue to restrict supply, thereby supporting coal prices. Additionally, external coal supply is projected to decrease due to various factors affecting major exporting countries [7][8]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity to price changes, as the demand is expected to rise during the peak winter season [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market value of 1,918.464 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,881.057 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong investment potential [5][6]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at 821 yuan/ton as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - The report also tracks the production levels and inventory of coal, indicating a slight decrease in daily production and a stable inventory situation at ports [8][9]. Downstream Performance - The report discusses the daily coal consumption in power plants, which is currently lower than expected but is projected to increase as winter progresses. The report also notes the impact of steel production on coal demand [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in coal stocks, particularly those that are expected to benefit from rising coal prices due to seasonal demand increases. Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [8][9].

Summary of Conference Call on the Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry, particularly the dynamics of coal imports in China and production in Indonesia for the year 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coal Import Projections**: China's coal import volume for 2025 is expected to be approximately 480 million tons, a decrease of 60 million tons compared to 2024, primarily due to falling coal prices and Indonesian policies [1][2]. 2. **Price Fluctuations**: In November, coal prices surged, leading power plants to halt January procurement, which may impact December import volumes [1][2]. 3. **Indonesian Production Plans**: Indonesia plans to produce 735 million tons of coal in 2025, but actual production may fall short due to small mines ceasing operations due to cost and quality issues, and winter shipping restrictions from Russia [1][2]. 4. **FOB Pricing Issues**: Small Indonesian coal mines are operating at a loss when FOB prices are at $55, with current prices around $52 for 3,800 kcal coal, leading to production halts [4]. 5. **Government Policies**: The Indonesian government aims to reduce coal production to 700 million tons in 2026 to stabilize coal prices and tax revenues, influenced by the drop in coal prices in 2025 [5]. 6. **HBA Index Mechanism**: The HBA index pricing mechanism is crucial for stabilizing tax revenues, with the government requiring sales prices not to fall below this index [5]. 7. **Price Disparities**: There is a price difference of over 100 RMB per ton between 3,800 kcal Indonesian coal and domestic 4,500 kcal coal, but recent domestic price increases limit the impact of this disparity on actual procurement [7]. 8. **Long-term Contracts**: Major mines like Indo Tambang Batubara have signed 85%-90% of long-term contracts, but the overall signing volume may be lower than in previous years due to a decrease in small traders [8]. 9. **Supply-Side Reforms**: Domestic supply-side reforms are affecting supply by reducing imports and controlling production, leading to a tighter supply situation [9]. 10. **Future Import Trends**: The overall coal import volume for 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to 2025, with fluctuations of 10-20 million tons, but unlikely to reach the 2024 peak of 540 million tons [13][14]. 11. **Electricity Generation and Inventory**: Current power plant inventories are not as low as perceived, with total social inventory around 190-200 million tons, and procurement activities have decreased significantly [16]. 12. **Impact of International Relations**: The stability of coal imports from Australia and Mongolia is expected, with Australia maintaining an annual export volume of around 80 million tons [11][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The coal market is influenced by various factors, including domestic production policies, international supply fluctuations, and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources [21][22]. - **Regulatory Changes**: Indonesia's tax policies are adapting to current market conditions, which may affect the pricing advantages of Indonesian coal exports [7]. - **Long-term Energy Strategy**: China's energy supply and demand trends will be shaped by its carbon peak goals, balancing domestic production with international supply to meet energy needs [18][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V-shaped trend. Since July, due to policies and inspections, coal production has declined, while demand has been strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal have shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation. In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern is hard to reverse, and coal prices are likely to rise [2][17]. - The decline in coal production in Shanxi has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Wuhai and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Although coking coal production is better than overall coal production, the supply is still tight [3][4][34]. - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. However, the import of coking coal from Mongolia has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, and the overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. - Steel mills' production has remained strong this year, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter, leading to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8]. - The total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized, and the thermal coal inventory has also shown a favorable trend, which supports coal prices [9]. - In the fourth quarter, coal prices are likely to remain firm. Coking coal, as a trading instrument, will continue to attract market attention. It is recommended to go long on coal at dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coal and short on ore [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Coal Price Trend Reversal, Supply - Demand Pattern Remodeled - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend. Policy changes led to a decline in coal production since July, while demand was strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [17]. 2. Stricter Coal Policies, Sharp Supply Contraction - Since the end of July, coal production has decreased month - on - month after inspections. Shanxi's production decline has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Overall, coal production has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply of coking coal is tight [3][4][34]. 3. Imports Fill Part of the Gap, Russia and Mongolia Provide Large Increases - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. Mongolia's coking coal import has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, while Russia's import has increased significantly. The overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. 4. Continuous Consumption Growth, Structural Shortage - Steel mills' production has remained strong, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter. Power plant coal consumption is high in the off - season, chemical coal consumption is at a high level, and building material coal consumption remains stable, resulting in a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8][43][50]. 5. Inventory Continues to Improve, Boosting Coal Prices Upward - Since the third quarter, the total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized. The thermal coal inventory has not increased further and is lower than last year's level. The inventory situation supports coal prices [9][65]. 6. Fourth - Quarter Market Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern of coal is hard to reverse. Coal prices are likely to remain firm. Although steel mills may cut production in the short term, the adjustment space for coking coal prices is limited. A strategy of going long on coal and short on ore can be considered [10][69].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal production and sales have shown an increase in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable rise in self-produced coal sales in Q3 [6][7] - The average selling price of coal has decreased significantly, leading to a decline in profit margins, but the company maintains a strong profitability outlook due to low production costs [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% [6] - The third quarter saw an operating revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, an increase of 9.98% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 2.18% [6] Coal Production and Sales - The company reported a raw coal production of 26.6414 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, while the total coal sales were 30.0364 million tons, down 9.28% [7] - Self-produced coal sales reached 9.4743 million tons in Q3, a significant increase of 59.77% quarter-on-quarter [7] Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 509.31 yuan per ton, down 24.72% year-on-year, while the unit cost for self-produced coal was 253.83 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13.30% [7] - The unit gross profit for self-produced coal was 255.48 yuan per ton, down 33.42% year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability despite lower costs [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.476 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.59 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - Despite a decline in production and sales in Q3, the company managed to achieve profit growth, and the elasticity of coal prices is expected to be more pronounced in Q4 [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.065 billion yuan, 2.468 billion yuan, and 2.717 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.3X, 10.3X, and 9.3X respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.99%, and a net profit of 1.277 billion yuan, down 40.65% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.360 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.85% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.13%, with a net profit of 401 million yuan, down 43.94% year-on-year but up 10.08% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The coal production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 26.19 million tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 20.86 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was 437 yuan/ton, down 60.6 yuan/ton year-on-year [7]. - The cost of coal sales for the first three quarters of 2025 was 271 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 166 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan/ton year-on-year [7].

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a rebound after a decline, with the coal ETF (515220) dropping over 2% before quickly recovering to nearly a 1% increase during trading [1] - Domestic coal production growth is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, while import volumes are down year-on-year [1] - The third quarter is expected to show a significant improvement in coal industry performance, driven by tight supply and demand dynamics, with average coal prices improving on a month-on-month basis [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen a substantial inflow of capital, with its share increasing by over 350% this year, bringing its total size to over 13.5 billion yuan [2] - The combination of strong fundamentals and capital inflows, along with the high dividend yield of the coal sector, enhances the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) [2] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the coal ETF (515220), which is the only coal ETF available in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Australia reported a significant decline in coal prices and production due to strong supply and adverse weather conditions, impacting its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yancoal Australia's average coal price for Q3 2025 decreased by 17.6% year-on-year to AUD 140 per ton, with thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices falling by 17.2% and 24.7% to AUD 130 and AUD 195 per ton, respectively [1] - The company's estimated revenue for Q3 2025 is approximately AUD 1.48 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [2] - The company’s production volume decreased by 9% year-on-year due to rainfall, while sales volume increased by 3% as earlier shipment delays were resolved [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - The average selling price decline aligns with market trends, leading to a downward revision of Yancoal Australia's earnings forecasts for FY 2025 to FY 2027 by 54%, 49%, and 40%, respectively [2] - Despite the weak coal prices, the company maintains a robust balance sheet and a consistent dividend policy, leading to a "buy" rating from analysts [2]