挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 煤炭行业周报 海外供给扰动加剧，煤价淡季不淡可期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 【投资要点】 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：王涛 证书编号：S1160525020003 证券分析师：朱彤 证书编号：S1160525030006 相对指数表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025/3 2025/8 2026/2 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究 《陕西推行煤矿安全生产责任包保制，持 续关注海外供给扰动》 2026.02.08 《电厂日耗继续回升，关注海外供给扰动》 2026.02.03 《寒潮致日耗显著回升，关注节前补库需 求》 2026.01.25 煤炭行业周报 节后双焦价格或承压，关注两会期间钢焦生产变动情况。（1）sxcoal：1 月蒙 古国煤炭产量 1017 万吨，环/同比-2.3%/+55.7%（25 年产量 9542 万吨，同比 +0.3%）。（2）截至 2 月 27 日，供给端，焦化厂开工率 72.8%，较节前/同比 +0.9/+1.7pct（节前同比-0.8pct）；需求端，Mys ...

Yancoal Australia (SEHK:03668) H2 2025 Earnings call February 25, 2026 08:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsBrendan Fitzpatrick - Investor Relations ManagerDavid Bennett - EGM OperationsKevin Su - CFOMark Salem - EGM Marketing and LogisticsMike Wells - EGM FinancePeter Wong - Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive Asia-PacificSharif Burra - CEOConference Call ParticipantsPaul Young - Managing Director and Senior AnalystWayne Fung - Equity Research AnalystOperatorPlease be advised that today's conference is being re ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain elevated due to persistent cold weather and improving demand, with power coal prices showing a week-on-week increase [1][6]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks in major production areas, which is expected to support coal prices [1][5]. - The report recommends stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to growth-oriented coal companies [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held to enhance safety measures in coal mining, emphasizing a systematic approach to safety governance [5]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou has been established, which is significant for energy security and regional economic development [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, power coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton for different grades, reflecting week-on-week increases [1]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a noted increase in coal output from production areas [1][2]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased to 63.34 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 4.26%, which may influence coal prices [11]. Port Inventory Trends - The average daily coal inflow at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.4613 million tons, while the outflow also saw a slight increase, indicating a dynamic supply-demand balance [16]. - Port inventories decreased to 26.727 million tons, a reduction of 2.91% week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [16]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs decreased to 31.90 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases [22]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings ratios for the upcoming years [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Shanxi Securities indicates that the price of all coal types for imports has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, with an expectation of performance improvement in the coal industry for Q4, and potential recovery in 2026 if prices remain high [1] - The trend of shrinking import coal volume continues to slow down, with a cumulative growth rate of -12.0% from January to November, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% in November, although there was a month-on-month increase of 5.53% [1] - In November, the import price of all coal types was $73 per ton, maintaining a year-on-year decline, but with a month-on-month increase of $1.42 per ton [1] Group 2 - The November coal import characteristics show a "reduction in volume and increase in price," suggesting a potential tightening of overseas supply and demand, although domestic coal prices have increased more significantly than overseas prices [2] - There is an expectation of continued reduction in Indonesian coal imports due to the planned imposition of an export tax by the Indonesian government, with rates expected to be between 1-5% starting next year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic thermal coal prices have decreased month-on-month, while the Newcastle port prices in Australia have increased slightly [2][4]. Price Summary - As of December 15, the Qinhuangdao power coal price for Shanxi mixed 5500 was 736.00 CNY/ton, down 91 CNY/ton, a decrease of 11% compared to the previous month [2][4]. - The Inner Mongolia Wuhai Q5500 thermal coal price was 596.00 CNY/ton, down 72 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.78% [2][4]. - The Datong South Suburb Q5500 thermal coal price was 615.00 CNY/ton, down 95.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 13.38% [2][4]. - The Newcastle port NEWC thermal coal offshore price was 108.60 USD/ton, up 0.30 USD/ton, an increase of 0.28% [2][4]. Production Summary - In November, the coal production from key state-owned coal mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results: - Shaanxi produced 21.74 million tons, up 1.32 million tons year-on-year, but down 0.48 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 2.18% [2]. - Shanxi produced 51.04 million tons, down 2.38 million tons year-on-year, but up 1.62 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 3.28% [2]. - Inner Mongolia produced 19.64 million tons, up 0.14 million tons year-on-year and up 0.88 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 4.70% [2]. Inventory and Consumption Summary - The total coal inventory at the three major ports (Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian) was 14.90 million tons, up 2.01 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 15.58% [3]. - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 0.83 million tons, up 0.03 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 3.83%, but down 0.33 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 3.83% [3]. Freight Summary - Domestic freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends: - The CBCFI rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai was 23.80 CNY/ton, down 48.37% month-on-month [3]. - The CBCFI rate from Qinhuangdao to Ningbo was 38.90 CNY/ton, down 32.58% month-on-month [3]. - The shipping rate from Newcastle, Australia to China was 16.20 USD/ton, down 0.40 USD/ton, a decrease of 2.41% [3]. - The shipping rate from Tabang, Indonesia to Guangzhou, China was 9.40 USD/ton, up 0.18 USD/ton, an increase of 1.97% [3].

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 冷空气来袭、库存有望去化，旺季 煤价仍有支撑 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.29-2025.12.5） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至12月5日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 589、683、785 元/吨，均环比下跌 30、30、31 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 194.76 万吨，环比上周减少 10.36 万 吨，但同比上升 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to a combination of recovering port operations, colder weather, and the need for power plants to replenish their stocks. The demand for coal is anticipated to increase as winter progresses, despite current weak consumption levels [7][8]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy which is expected to continue to restrict supply, thereby supporting coal prices. Additionally, external coal supply is projected to decrease due to various factors affecting major exporting countries [7][8]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity to price changes, as the demand is expected to rise during the peak winter season [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market value of 1,918.464 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,881.057 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong investment potential [5][6]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at 821 yuan/ton as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - The report also tracks the production levels and inventory of coal, indicating a slight decrease in daily production and a stable inventory situation at ports [8][9]. Downstream Performance - The report discusses the daily coal consumption in power plants, which is currently lower than expected but is projected to increase as winter progresses. The report also notes the impact of steel production on coal demand [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in coal stocks, particularly those that are expected to benefit from rising coal prices due to seasonal demand increases. Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [8][9].

Summary of Conference Call on the Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry, particularly the dynamics of coal imports in China and production in Indonesia for the year 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coal Import Projections**: China's coal import volume for 2025 is expected to be approximately 480 million tons, a decrease of 60 million tons compared to 2024, primarily due to falling coal prices and Indonesian policies [1][2]. 2. **Price Fluctuations**: In November, coal prices surged, leading power plants to halt January procurement, which may impact December import volumes [1][2]. 3. **Indonesian Production Plans**: Indonesia plans to produce 735 million tons of coal in 2025, but actual production may fall short due to small mines ceasing operations due to cost and quality issues, and winter shipping restrictions from Russia [1][2]. 4. **FOB Pricing Issues**: Small Indonesian coal mines are operating at a loss when FOB prices are at $55, with current prices around $52 for 3,800 kcal coal, leading to production halts [4]. 5. **Government Policies**: The Indonesian government aims to reduce coal production to 700 million tons in 2026 to stabilize coal prices and tax revenues, influenced by the drop in coal prices in 2025 [5]. 6. **HBA Index Mechanism**: The HBA index pricing mechanism is crucial for stabilizing tax revenues, with the government requiring sales prices not to fall below this index [5]. 7. **Price Disparities**: There is a price difference of over 100 RMB per ton between 3,800 kcal Indonesian coal and domestic 4,500 kcal coal, but recent domestic price increases limit the impact of this disparity on actual procurement [7]. 8. **Long-term Contracts**: Major mines like Indo Tambang Batubara have signed 85%-90% of long-term contracts, but the overall signing volume may be lower than in previous years due to a decrease in small traders [8]. 9. **Supply-Side Reforms**: Domestic supply-side reforms are affecting supply by reducing imports and controlling production, leading to a tighter supply situation [9]. 10. **Future Import Trends**: The overall coal import volume for 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to 2025, with fluctuations of 10-20 million tons, but unlikely to reach the 2024 peak of 540 million tons [13][14]. 11. **Electricity Generation and Inventory**: Current power plant inventories are not as low as perceived, with total social inventory around 190-200 million tons, and procurement activities have decreased significantly [16]. 12. **Impact of International Relations**: The stability of coal imports from Australia and Mongolia is expected, with Australia maintaining an annual export volume of around 80 million tons [11][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The coal market is influenced by various factors, including domestic production policies, international supply fluctuations, and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources [21][22]. - **Regulatory Changes**: Indonesia's tax policies are adapting to current market conditions, which may affect the pricing advantages of Indonesian coal exports [7]. - **Long-term Energy Strategy**: China's energy supply and demand trends will be shaped by its carbon peak goals, balancing domestic production with international supply to meet energy needs [18][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V-shaped trend. Since July, due to policies and inspections, coal production has declined, while demand has been strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal have shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation. In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern is hard to reverse, and coal prices are likely to rise [2][17]. - The decline in coal production in Shanxi has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Wuhai and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Although coking coal production is better than overall coal production, the supply is still tight [3][4][34]. - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. However, the import of coking coal from Mongolia has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, and the overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. - Steel mills' production has remained strong this year, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter, leading to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8]. - The total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized, and the thermal coal inventory has also shown a favorable trend, which supports coal prices [9]. - In the fourth quarter, coal prices are likely to remain firm. Coking coal, as a trading instrument, will continue to attract market attention. It is recommended to go long on coal at dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coal and short on ore [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Coal Price Trend Reversal, Supply - Demand Pattern Remodeled - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend. Policy changes led to a decline in coal production since July, while demand was strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [17]. 2. Stricter Coal Policies, Sharp Supply Contraction - Since the end of July, coal production has decreased month - on - month after inspections. Shanxi's production decline has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Overall, coal production has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply of coking coal is tight [3][4][34]. 3. Imports Fill Part of the Gap, Russia and Mongolia Provide Large Increases - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. Mongolia's coking coal import has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, while Russia's import has increased significantly. The overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. 4. Continuous Consumption Growth, Structural Shortage - Steel mills' production has remained strong, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter. Power plant coal consumption is high in the off - season, chemical coal consumption is at a high level, and building material coal consumption remains stable, resulting in a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8][43][50]. 5. Inventory Continues to Improve, Boosting Coal Prices Upward - Since the third quarter, the total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized. The thermal coal inventory has not increased further and is lower than last year's level. The inventory situation supports coal prices [9][65]. 6. Fourth - Quarter Market Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern of coal is hard to reverse. Coal prices are likely to remain firm. Although steel mills may cut production in the short term, the adjustment space for coking coal prices is limited. A strategy of going long on coal and short on ore can be considered [10][69].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal production and sales have shown an increase in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable rise in self-produced coal sales in Q3 [6][7] - The average selling price of coal has decreased significantly, leading to a decline in profit margins, but the company maintains a strong profitability outlook due to low production costs [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% [6] - The third quarter saw an operating revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, an increase of 9.98% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 2.18% [6] Coal Production and Sales - The company reported a raw coal production of 26.6414 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, while the total coal sales were 30.0364 million tons, down 9.28% [7] - Self-produced coal sales reached 9.4743 million tons in Q3, a significant increase of 59.77% quarter-on-quarter [7] Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 509.31 yuan per ton, down 24.72% year-on-year, while the unit cost for self-produced coal was 253.83 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13.30% [7] - The unit gross profit for self-produced coal was 255.48 yuan per ton, down 33.42% year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability despite lower costs [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.476 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.59 [11]