1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke has not changed significantly this week, continuing the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. The increase in uncertainties on the coking coal supply side has intensified the long - short game in the market. Some short - sellers have stopped losses and left the market, driving the coke futures to rebound at a low level. The sustainability of the rebound depends on the actual situation of the coking coal supply side, and there is a risk of a second bottoming if the contraction expectation is falsified [5][33]. - Since late May, the output of some coking coal mines has declined. In June, due to safety supervision, environmental protection, and the poor coal auction situation in Mongolia, as well as political turmoil in Mongolia, the supply uncertainty has increased. Short - sellers have strong willingness to stop losses, driving the coking coal futures to rebound significantly at a low level. However, before the supply - demand expectation is substantially reversed, the rebound space may be limited, and a second bottoming is possible. If there is a significant contraction in domestic output or imports, the coal price center is expected to rise [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In late May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 209,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9% [8]. - On June 6, the online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ER company ended in failure. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 750 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were unsold. It has been 19 consecutive auctions with no sales since April 22 [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,340 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 20.71% | - 34.31% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,180 yuan/ton | - 4.07% | - 3.28% | - 27.16% | - 40.10% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 900 yuan/ton | - 5.26% | - 2.17% | - 23.73% | - 44.79% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 44.70% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,290 yuan/ton | - 2.27% | 0.00% | - 15.69% | - 38.57% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,350.5 yuan/ton | 0.67 | 1,379.0 yuan/ton | 1,335.5 yuan/ton | 33,479 | - 883 | 53,370 | - 90 | | Coking Coal | - | 778.5 yuan/ton | 3.18 | 796.0 yuan/ton | 757.5 yuan/ton | 1,558,449 | 265,513 | 556,894 | - 22,924 | [13] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the inventory of coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, total coke inventory, port coke inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal inventory. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal screw - thread steel procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][30] Market Outlook - Coke: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains unchanged, and the rebound is driven by coking coal supply disturbances. The sustainability of the rebound depends on the coking coal supply. There is a risk of a second bottoming [5][33]. - Coking Coal: The increase in supply uncertainties has led to a low - level rebound, but the rebound space may be limited before the supply - demand situation is reversed. Attention should be paid to the supply side [6][34].