从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦煤修改交割标准 短期盘面波动加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 短期基本面变化不大，上周主产地个别煤矿倒面结束以及为追赶年度 产能任务增产，产量小幅回升。但目前是煤矿年终检修高发期，产量增加 幅度或有限，随着下游焦钢企业陆续开始补库，炼焦煤成交有所回暖。焦 煤进口端仍处高位，继续对国内煤价形成压制，其中上周蒙煤口岸监管区 库存进一步增加。需求方面，季节性淡季压力将进一步显现，钢厂盈利率 35%左右，高炉铁水产量尚处缓慢回落趋势中，上周降至 226.55 万吨，环 比下降 2.65 万吨，同比下降 2.86 万吨，对原料的刚性需求形成持续压制。 近期关注煤焦价格下跌后，钢厂对原料的补库节奏变化。 观点：前期盘面快速下跌后偏悲观情绪得以释放，叠加市场利多消息 配合，价格迎阶段性反弹，但基本面表现仍偏弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke has not changed significantly this week, continuing the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. The increase in uncertainties on the coking coal supply side has intensified the long - short game in the market. Some short - sellers have stopped losses and left the market, driving the coke futures to rebound at a low level. The sustainability of the rebound depends on the actual situation of the coking coal supply side, and there is a risk of a second bottoming if the contraction expectation is falsified [5][33]. - Since late May, the output of some coking coal mines has declined. In June, due to safety supervision, environmental protection, and the poor coal auction situation in Mongolia, as well as political turmoil in Mongolia, the supply uncertainty has increased. Short - sellers have strong willingness to stop losses, driving the coking coal futures to rebound significantly at a low level. However, before the supply - demand expectation is substantially reversed, the rebound space may be limited, and a second bottoming is possible. If there is a significant contraction in domestic output or imports, the coal price center is expected to rise [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In late May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 209,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9% [8]. - On June 6, the online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ER company ended in failure. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 750 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were unsold. It has been 19 consecutive auctions with no sales since April 22 [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,340 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 20.71% | - 34.31% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,180 yuan/ton | - 4.07% | - 3.28% | - 27.16% | - 40.10% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 900 yuan/ton | - 5.26% | - 2.17% | - 23.73% | - 44.79% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 44.70% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,290 yuan/ton | - 2.27% | 0.00% | - 15.69% | - 38.57% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,350.5 yuan/ton | 0.67 | 1,379.0 yuan/ton | 1,335.5 yuan/ton | 33,479 | - 883 | 53,370 | - 90 | | Coking Coal | - | 778.5 yuan/ton | 3.18 | 796.0 yuan/ton | 757.5 yuan/ton | 1,558,449 | 265,513 | 556,894 | - 22,924 | [13] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the inventory of coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, total coke inventory, port coke inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal inventory. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal screw - thread steel procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][30] Market Outlook - Coke: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains unchanged, and the rebound is driven by coking coal supply disturbances. The sustainability of the rebound depends on the coking coal supply. There is a risk of a second bottoming [5][33]. - Coking Coal: The increase in supply uncertainties has led to a low - level rebound, but the rebound space may be limited before the supply - demand situation is reversed. Attention should be paid to the supply side [6][34].