Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upward trend in coking coal prices and its implications for the steel industry, emphasizing the importance of supply-side factors and safety regulations in shaping market dynamics [4][5][6]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures prices have been rising since June 3, with spot prices increasing from June 25, indicating a bullish market sentiment driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy influences [4]. - The rise in coking coal prices has led to subsequent increases in coke and steel prices, highlighting the interconnectedness of these commodities [5]. - The article predicts that coking coal prices will continue to rise in November, supported by various underlying factors [6]. Group 2: Supporting Factors for Price Increases - The coal mining industry is facing significant operational challenges, with a 20% decline in revenue and a 51% drop in total profit year-on-year from January to September 2025, primarily due to falling prices [10]. - Safety regulations are becoming increasingly stringent, with a focus on preventing accidents and ensuring compliance, which may limit production capacity [13]. - There is a strict crackdown on overproduction, which is expected to constrain supply and support price stability [14]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain Issues - Coking coal inventories are at historically low levels, with a significant reduction of 58.9% since the beginning of the year, indicating a tight supply situation [15]. - The political instability in Mongolia is affecting coking coal production and exports, leading to reduced availability in the market [17]. - The steel industry is expected to maintain stable production levels, with a growth target of 4% for 2025 and 2026, which will support demand for coking coal [18]. Group 4: Seasonal and Historical Context - November is historically a month with strong price increases for coking coal, making it a critical period for market participants [19]. - The article suggests that coking coal producers should remain cautious and monitor market demand closely to avoid overproduction in response to potential supply-demand improvements [19].