Group 1 - The credit market is showing signs of tightening, which may trigger a new round of declines in the U.S. stock market, as institutional investors like pension funds may be forced to sell assets [1][3] - If private lending remains weak, pension funds may have to sell index funds to avoid punitive losses from declining private asset valuations and to meet ongoing funding obligations [1] - Passive investment has dominated the S&P 500 index, meaning an economic downturn could lead to collective selling by funds tracking this index [1] Group 2 - Concerns are rising that bad loans from small banks may spread to other sectors of the stock market, with regional bank composite stock index in the U.S. dropping over 6% in a single day, marking the longest consecutive decline of the year [1] - Other institutions, such as Miller Tabak + Co., have also warned about the potential for sustained selling pressure from index-tracking funds, particularly in bank ETFs, which have shown significant weakness [3] - The S&P 500 index is statistically overvalued on 20 valuation metrics, and the ongoing three-year bull market is facing valuation risks, with the probability of a market decline increasing [3] Group 3 - Six out of ten bear market warning signals tracked by the team have already been triggered, with historical data indicating that an average of 70% of bear market signals are triggered before a market peak and subsequent decline [3] - The current bear market signals suggest that caution is warranted in investment decisions [3]

格隆汇10月21日｜美银策略师表示，信贷市场进一步承压可能引发股市新一轮全面抛售，因为包括养老 金在内的长期投资者将被迫出售资产。美银证券的Savita Subramanian表示："如果私人信贷市场的波动 持续，养老金等机构可能被迫出售指数基金，以避免私人资产的估值调整。"她表示，被动投资"主导了 标普500指数"，因此市场下跌将迫使指数基金进一步抛售。Miller Tabak+首席市场策略师Matt Maley也 指出，银行板块ETF可能加剧卖压。"鉴于银行ETF已经显著走弱，只需进一步小幅下跌就可能确认银行 股趋势发生重大转变。"美银还指出，标普500指数在20项不同的估值指标中均显得"统计上昂贵"，这意 味着这轮已持续三年的牛市面临越来越高的估值风险，同时市场下行的概率正在上升。 来源：格隆汇APP ...