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大越期货燃料油早报-20250606
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly due to the expected tight supply in June. The supply of compliant low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be limited in the next two weeks due to the lack of medium - sulfur blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the increasing power generation demand as the Middle East and South Asia enter the peak air - conditioning electricity consumption season. - The spot prices of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are at a premium to the futures prices. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4. - The prices of fuel oil are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil main contracts have short positions, and the short positions are decreasing. - Overnight, with the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the financial market strengthened. Fuel oil followed the upward trend of crude oil, and the fundamentals are slightly strong. It is expected to perform better than crude oil today. The FU2507 is expected to trade in the range of 2930 - 2990, and the LU2508 is expected to trade in the range of 3530 - 3590 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main contract positions. It also gives the expected trading ranges for the FU2507 and LU2508 contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positives**: OPEC+ has extended additional production cuts (though implementation needs to be tracked), and China has issued import quotas. - **Likely Negatives**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the co - existence of supply - side production cuts that need to be observed and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight in the short term due to the lack of blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by power generation demand. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 261 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 201 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4 [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide detailed spread data analysis, but shows a chart of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil futures spread over a long - term period [14]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from March 26 to June 4 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels. The inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels in the week ending June 4 [8].